For what it's worth, yesterday was a much better day, but it could have been a great day, if not for a dismal performance by the Washington Nationals. How can you possibly lose that game?. CHI WS @ MINN. Thanks to a 2 unit bet on WASH 1st 5 RL, and 2 unit bets on the CLEV 1st 5 RL and full game ML, we finished +2.12 units for the day and +27.49 units for the season.
CHI WS @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
Jose Quintana
For the last few years, Jose Quintana has been a model of consistency. Each of the last four seasons, he's pitched between 200 and 208 IP with a WHIP between 1.16 and 1.27, an ERA between 3.20 and 3.51, a SIERA between 3.50 and 4.01, an xFIP between 3.37 and 4.03, and a K-BB% between 15.2% and 15.6%. Last season Quintana started 23 games and produced 23 quality starts - 71.9%.
This season Quintana's been more inconsistent than usual. He's made 14 starts for the White Sox, and is 3-8 with 7 quality starts (50%). However, he also has 5 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs, and in 4 of them it was at least 5 runs. This season, he has allowed slightly less hits (80) than inning pitched (81.2), but he has also walked another 32. His 3.53 BB/9 rate is 1.15 higher than his career mark of 2.38, and explains his higher than usual WHIP. He is striking out almost a batter an inning (79), but the walks sort of negate some of those Ks. Last season, there was some concerns. Quintana's FB% spiked to a career-high 38.7%. This season it's virtually unchanged at 38.6%. Last season, his 9.5 HR/FB rate rose for the 3rd consecutive season. It's 13.3% right now. As a result, his HR/9 sits at a career high 1.32. That's not exorbitant, but it is troubling for a pitcher whose success relies more on limiting HRs (0.85 career HR/9) than it does on a blistering K rate.
Nik Turley
Turley was promoted after producing ed what is possibly the best start in all the minor leagues this season. Facing the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate, Turley recorded a 15/2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 24 batters over 6 innings, allowing just 4 hits and 0 runs. He has had success when he throws his fastball at the top of the zone and curveball at the bottom of it.
However, Turley hasn't been anywhere near as successful in his two MLB starts. He's failed to go 5 innings in either outing, and has allowed 17 hits and 12 runs, over his 8.2 innings, with 7 Ks and 4 BBs. So far. MLB hitters are batting .436 against him!
So far Turley's shown nothing
Edge - CHI WS
Bullpens
The White Sox have a very good bullpen. The Twins have one of the worst bulpens in the league
Edge - CHI WS big
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
R/PG
|
Rank
|
White Sox
|
-27.2
|
19
|
94
|
17
|
0.315
|
21
|
0.156
|
23
|
-1.8
|
16
|
4.61
|
20
|
Twins
|
-0.5
|
9
|
99
|
11
|
0.325
|
11
|
0.167
|
19
|
1.3
|
11
|
4.71
|
16
|
The White Sox possess a below average offense, while the Twin have an above average
Edge - MINN
Defense
Edge - MINN
Home / Road Record
CHI is a lousy 16-27 on the road and MINHN isn't much better at 16-24 at home
Edge - NONE
Conclusion: MINN has the better offense and the better defense. However the White Sox have a huge edge in the bullpen. As for these two starting pitchers, Turley's shown nothing. He's made two starts and he's bee bombed twice, but he is young and he has talent. As for Quintana, I was already to jump on the White Sox as one of my two contest picks, until I took a close look at Quintana. He shown flashes of the old Quintana, but there are definite warning signs - his elevated FB%, his HR/FB rate, the HRs and the walks, and the twins have the bats to exploit it. I'm still putting a unit on CHI because of the bullpen edge. All Quintana has to do is keeps the White Sox close. Turley shown nothing, but I keep flashing back to Nick Pivetta last week. He hadn't shown much either, until he outpiched Chris Sale 1-0. Turley has that lind of stuff, so while it wouldn't shock me...
PICK - CHI WS ML (-1105 for 1 unit)
ARIZ @ COL
Starting Pitchers
Zack Godley
Godley has started 8 games for Arizona. He's 2-1, with 6 quality starts (75%). He has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs, and in 6 has allowed 2 or less. He allowed just 36 hits in 50 innings, and opponents are only hitting .202 against him. His GB rate is an excellent 60.3%, and his BABIP is down almost 60 points from last season. His HR/9 has dropped from 1.57 to 0.54, while his K/9 has stayed constant. His K/BB ratio is also decent. He possesses a 4-pitch mix, a 4-seamer, cutter, curveball, and changeup, but none of them are overpowering or even above-average.
Acquired from Chicago in a 2014 deal for Miguel Montero, Godley has logged more than 100 professional innings with the Diamondbacks -- the first quarter of which were better than the last three-quarters. Last season, he finished 5-4, with 1.49 WHIP and a 6.39 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 4.16 SIERA and a 4.20 xFIP, were over 2 full runs lower than his bloated ERA. That, combined with his .313 BABIP, tells me that Godley jhad some really bad luck with batted ball in play, and actually pitched better than his ERA suggests. One thing he excelled was getting ground balls. His ground ball rate was 53.8 percent.
Antonio Senzatela
Senzatela has started 14 games for the Rockies this season. He's 9-2 with 7 quality strart. He's srated out fastm with 5 in his first 7 starts, but has only delivered 2 in his last 7, and during that span has allowed at least 4 runs 5 timess including his last 2. Overall, Senzatela has given up fewer hits (77) than innings pitched (83.1) and opponents are hitting .246 against him. He has also walked 24, while striking out 60.
Senzateka had never pitched a game higher than the Double-A level before this season. He made just 7 starts for Double-A Hartford last season, going 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA. He is 41-19 with a 2.45 ERA in 5 minor league seasons. He throws a fastball that tops out around 98 mph, with a changeup and a slider he adopted after watching fellow Venezuelan Jose Fernandez.
Overll, Senzarela has pitched pretty well, but Godley's simply pitched better.
Edge - ARIZ
Bullpens
Diamondbacks
|
14
|
6
|
70.0%
|
21
|
6
|
77.8%
|
0.221
|
8
|
75.3%
|
7
|
Rockies
|
12
|
5
|
70.6%
|
27
|
6
|
81.8%
|
0.242
|
15
|
71.6%
|
21
|
Diamondbacks
|
1.22
|
10
|
3.36
|
6
|
3.58
|
7
|
3.70
|
4
|
3.55
|
6
|
2.6
|
10
|
Rockies
|
1.31
|
14
|
4.39
|
18
|
4.05
|
16
|
4.05
|
11
|
3.81
|
11
|
2.8
|
9
|
Both teams have good bullpens
Edge - NONE
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
R/PG
|
Rank
|
Dacks
|
13.6
|
6
|
99
|
11
|
0.334
|
4
|
0.187
|
8
|
18.2
|
1
|
5.25
|
5
|
Rockies
|
-52.4
|
26
|
85
|
26
|
0.332
|
5
|
0.172
|
16
|
3.6
|
10
|
5.30
|
4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Rockies get on bases, but they aren't really all that prolific. The Dbacks are.
Edge - ARIZ
Defense
Edge - COL
Home / Road
ARIZ is a decent 19-18 on the road, while COL a very good 22-14 at home
Edge - COL
Conclusion: COL is a good home team and has a solid home field advantage. However, ARIZ possesses the more explosive and better offense. Both bullpens are very good. As for these two starting pitchers, I think they're both decent, but Godley's pitching better and he's a GB pitcher, always a good thing at Coors.
Pick - ARIZ ML (-108 for 1 unit)
LAA@ NYY
Starting Pitchers
Jesse Chavez
Chavez has started 14 games for the Angels. He's 5-7 with 6 quality starts(42.9%). He missed two more by just 1 out. He's allowed a few more hits (84) than innings pitched (81.2), and opposing batters are hitting .258 against him. He's also walked another 24, and has an acceptable 61/24 K/BB rate.
Chavez has performed beeter at home than on the road. In 7 home starts, he's 3-3 with a 1.13 WHIP, a 3.86 ERA, a .295 BAA and 5 quality starts. However on the road, he's 2-4 with a 1.53 WHIP, a 6.03 ERA, a .295 BAA, just 1 quality start.
Chavez, a career journeyman, spent 2016 in Toronto and Los Angeles, appearing in 63 games exclusively as a reliever. However, over the past three seasons, he has started 47 games and has generally been serviceable, posting a 1.34 WHIP, and a 3.95 ERA over that 3 year span. His advanced metrics are slightly better than his ERA. This tells me that he is a league-average starter, and maybe a little better at home, now that he has a pitcher friendly home park.
Luis Severino
Plagued by poor fastball command, Severino had a really bad season in 2016. Early on, he abandoned his change-up and turned into a strict fastball/slider pitcher. A two pitch mix with shaky fastball command is not great for a young starting pitcher. His ground ball rate dropped from 50% to 45%, many of which elevated to line drives. Increased line drive rate means increased BABIP, which climbed substantially from .265 to .324 between 2015 and 2016.Severino did have some late season success out of the bullpen.
Coming into this season, Severino was focused on increasing his fastball command. So far, it's working. He has started 13 games for the Yankees. posting a 5-2 record with 8 quality starts (51.5%), including 4 of his last 5 . His GB rate is up 9% from 45.1% last season to 54.1% this season, and his BABIP is down 57 point from .324 last season to .267 this season. Severino has allowed less hits (63) than innings pitched (81.1 ), and he's striking out more than 1 batter per inning (90). His 90/22 K/BB ratio is very good, and opponents are hitting just .209 against him.
Edge - NYY
Bullpens
Both bullpens are very solid and very evenly matched.
Edge - NONE
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
R/PG
|
Rank
|
Angels
|
-31.2
|
22
|
92
|
23
|
0.305
|
26
|
0.146
|
28
|
|
|
4.28
|
24
|
Yankees
|
64.0
|
1
|
117
|
2
|
0.349
|
1
|
0.196
|
3
|
4.8
|
8
|
5.71
|
1
|
The Angels offense is well below average, while the Yankee offense is elite.
Edge - NYY
Defense
Edge - NYY
Home / Road
The Angels are a weak 16-22 on the road, the Yankees are and excellent 23-10 at home.
Edge - NYY
Conclusion: In this game the Yankees seem to have all the edges. Most prominentlythe Yankees posses a much better offense, the better defense and a strong home field edge. As for these starting pitchers, Chavez is a decent league average starter, but much better at pitcher friendly Angel Stadium. Severino has been very good allowing more than 3 run just 3 times, and only once at home.
Pick - NYY RL (-120 for 1 unit)
SF @ ATL
Starting Pitchers
Matt Cain
Cain should be headed to the proverbial glue factory soon, or at least the bullpen/ For the most part, he's struggled in his 14 outings this season. He's 3-6 with just 4 quality starts. He's allowed 19 more hits (93) than innings pitched (74 ), and opponents are hitting .305 against him. He's also walked another 32, which explains the whopping high WHIP. His SIERA and xFIP are both well over 5.00 and his FIP's not far behind. He has a weak 46/32 K/BB ratio, There's not much to like about Cain anymore.
Once upon a time, Cain was once of the league’s premier workhorses, posting a 3.38 ERA in an average of 209 innings per season from 2006-13, but injuries have decimated the latter portion of his career. After hitting the DL once in his first eight seasons, he has eight trips in his last three. He hasn’t reached even 100 innings in any of the last three seasons. Last season, Cain was 4-8, with a 1.51 WHIP and a 5.64 ERA. His advance metrics a 5.14 FIP,, a 4.81xFIP, and a 4.67 SIERA, weren't much better.
For years, Cain maintained a well-below-average HR/FB rate that allowed him to consistently outperform his ERA metrics. That started changing in 2013 when Cain posted an 10.8% HR/FB and it's been rising since: 13.7%, 14.8%, and 15% last season. It's currently 11.5% Cain's sky high BABIP (.304 in 2015, .321 last seaon, and .328 so far this season)) has only exacerbated the problem. Cain almost certainly won’t ever come close to the 3.28 ERA guy he posted from 2005-12, and even a sub-4.00 seems unrealistic at this juncture in his rapidly sinking career.
Jaime Garcia
Garcia has started 13 games for the Braves this season. He's only 2-5, but he's pitched much better than that, with 8 quality starts (61.5%). He has allowed less hit (73) than innings pitched (82.2), and opposing batters are only hitting .235 against him. Garcia has never had a GB rate lower than 54% (he’s at 56.5 this year) and he consistently carries a soft contact better than league average. This year he’s at 23.9% compared to a 19% league average for starters. Hiss 31 BBs and 60/31 K/BB ratio have been his biggest problems and explains why his metrics, a little higher than his ERA.
Edge - ATL
Bullpens
Giants
|
10
|
11
|
47.6%
|
15
|
10
|
60.0%
|
0.253
|
20
|
69.7%
|
20
|
Braves
|
14
|
8
|
63.6%
|
13
|
12
|
52.0%
|
0.232
|
11
|
72.2%
|
18
|
Giants
|
1.43
|
22
|
4.29
|
15
|
3.73
|
10
|
4.60
|
25
|
4.26
|
23
|
1.5
|
16
|
Braves
|
1.27
|
11
|
4.20
|
14
|
4.46
|
19
|
4.54
|
21
|
4.16
|
21
|
0.4
|
24
|
These are two very mediocre bullpens. SF's closer hangs on our "Wall of Excrement"
Edge - NONE
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
R/PG
|
Rank
|
Giants
|
-75.4
|
30
|
79
|
30
|
0.289
|
30
|
0.129
|
30
|
1.2
|
12
|
3.70
|
29
|
Braves
|
-29.3
|
21
|
94
|
17
|
0.319
|
17
|
0.148
|
27
|
-5.4
|
23
|
4.68
|
17
|
ATL's offense is mediocre, which makes it much better than SF's bottom of the barrel unit
Edge - ATL
Defense
Edge - SF slight
Home / Road Records
SF is a wretched 13-29 on the road25-9 at home , while ATL is a mediocre 17-10 at home.
Edge - ATL
Conclusion: ATL has the better offense, not because they're that good offensively, but the SF offense is just gawd awful. Both bullpen are very mediocre, and of course SF has our "Wall of Excrement" closer Melancon. Then we ave the two starting pitchers. Garcia's pitching as well as he has in years, and Cain cotinue to be prime fade material, and that's exactly what I'm doing.
PICK - ATL RL (+120 for 1 unit)