ATLANTA BRAVES
2014: 79-83
2015 OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL: 74.5
MANAGER: Fredi Gonzalez (5th season)
PITCHING
Fredi and staff have said they're not going to reveal their exact pitching rotation quite yet. But based on one confirmation, Gonzalez expects Julio Teheran to be the man on the mound when the regular seasons gets underway in April. I would suspect the rest of the rotation will go in the order of Alex Wood with Shelby Miller next. Wood is a southpaw, who'll start between a pair of right-handers. Mike Minor, if healthy, will most likely take the fourth spot. But Minor was scratched from a Grapefruit League start already, due to shoulder soreness. This is worrisome for the Braves after Minor suffered from shoulder issues throughout 2014. If Minor doesn't fully heal by the start of the regular season, Mike Foltynewicz, Manny Banuelos, Eric Stults, and Wandy Rogriguez will battle for the fourth and fifth spots. Like Minor, Teheran is a fly-ball pitcher and there is concern after his velocity dropped by over 1 mph last season, after dropping another mph just a couple seasons prior to 2014. Teheran's 2.89 ERA may be a thing of the past as we saw some of his metrics head in the wrong direction last season. The shaky rotation and a weakened defense with two-thirds of the outfield no longer in Braves' uniforms means this rotation is going to struggle.
BULLPEN
Craig Kimbrel has been a rock and if Atlanta could get to him often, the Braves would be in great shape. But the weakened lineup and the fact two of his set-up men are no longer in Atlanta means we may see less of the star closer. As hard as he has thrown, his velocity was just fine a season ago, but will need to keep the free passes down. The Braves were expecting big things from Shae Simmons, but the 24-year old potential star underwent Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss the 2015 season. Jason Grilli should see an uptick in 2015, but he is closing in on 40 years of age and will vie for a set-up spot. Jim Johnson is a far cry from the pitcher we saw in 2012, dramatically and quickly falling off from that 51 save season. The Braves' pitching coaches will work to get Johnson back on track to a certain extent, but with his control far from where it was just three seasons ago, he remains a question mark at best – as does the relief staff in general. Losing Simmons was certainly a major blow.
LINEUP
The 2014 Atlanta Braves finished second to last in the NL in runs scored. It's hard to imagine much of an improvement in 2015. Jason Heyward was traded to the Cardinals and Justin Upton is no longer a Brave after slamming 29 home runs and driving in 102 RBI. Melvin (formerly known as B.J.) Upton was hoping to turn around his fortunes at the plate after failing to top a .210 batting average the last two seasons. Upton may have to wait after suffering from inflammation in his left foot. He could miss the first month of the regular season while he recovers. There's nothing wrong with 1B Freddie Freeman, but with all the changes and nagging injuries, Atlanta will need key offensive production from Nick Markakis and Alberto Callaspo. It wouldn't hurt if 3B Chris Johnson can bounce back after a poor 2014 season at the plate. Johnson was terrible against right-handers and after opening the season in the clean-up slot, he finished 2014 hitting form the six and seven holes more often than not. Speaking of “holes,” SS Andrelton Simmons is exactly that on offense. And while I like Christian Bethancourt behind the plate (he'll get more starts than A.J. Pierzynski) he's a stiff with a bat.
OUTLOOK
Last November, I read a David Schoenfield article on ESPN that was entitled, “Braves Could Be One of the Worst Teams in 2015.” He mentioned the Braves won 96 games as recently as 2013 and suffered an unexpected drop to 79 wins last season, leading to a likely overhaul of the club. He was correct. The pitchers brought in are not ready for primetime, including Miller, who's simply overrated when you look at his numbers. Atlanta's offense will struggle from the opening pitch. And like Schoenfield said four months ago, maybe it would be wise to trade Kimbrel down the line for decent young talent, and restock a mediocre-at-best farm system. After all, a great closer on a bad team is useless. I have to agree. Atlanta has received some action in a positive manner with their win total rising a full game to 74.5 at Westgate SuperBook, but we won't pluck our money down on the Over, because I expect a 70-to-75 win season in 2015 for the Atlanta Braves.
WE'LL PREVIEW THE BALTIMORE ORIOLES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.