Point Blank – November 11
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #10
The NFL Week that Was, and some key handicapping issues that you can incorporate into your own portfolio to gain some edges in the weeks ahead.
Item: How the Cardinals get it done
The Cardinals are a conundrum for the markets these days, 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS, beating the spread by 51.5 points, despite posting statistics that just do not jump off of the page. And those markets now face the added challenge of making the adjustments from Carson Palmer to Drew Stanton, despite the fact that they have yet to come up with the proper base number. So how has Arizona been able to have such success? A lot of it really does come down to coaching.
Bruce Arians is not just a savvy offensive mind, but also someone that can lead a team, and earn the respect of his players. Key offensive assistants Tom Moore and Harold Goodwin have a combined 57 years of NFL experience. DC Todd Bowles will likely be someone’s head coach next season. What they are doing well is getting the most out of the pieces that are available, and it is especially true as the games flow – their ability to make adjustments has led to a commanding 91-34 advantage in the fourth quarter. The defensive allowance over the final stanza is of particular importance, because every game was sitting on a one-score margin over those last 15:00, and half of those points were produced by Peyton Manning in Denver. The other eight games have yielded just 17 fourth-quarter points, and even that requires an * - Dallas got a meaningless TD down 28-10 with 1:08 remaining.
Have they been fortunate? To a degree, yes, a +12 turnover ratio must be factored. But there may be lesser luck in that number than might be attributed to other teams. An offense that throws the ball deep down the field is less likely to have interceptions, while a defense that leads the league in blitz percentage is going to force opposing QBs into mistakes. They may not maintain this big of an edge in the category, but they should finish the season on the plus side.
The Cardinals are not candidates for greatness – this is about as well as they can play. But it does show how making good decisions during games matters in the complexity of today’s NFL. And for the flip side of that…
Item: Doug Marrone had a bad day
The Bills were at a pivotal cross-roads to their season on Sunday. Coming off of their bye at 5-3 they grabbed an early lead vs. Kansas City, and had a chance to make a major statement. Which they did, by taking the wrong road and getting both lost, and then a loss.
Kyle Orton and the Buffalo offense drove 51 yards for a TD on their first possession, and did not take a snap from behind until midway through the fourth quarter. So the entire game plan could have been in play, and when they gave the ball to RBs Anthony Dixon, Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown it worked – that trio combined for 107 yards on 19 carries, a crisp 5.6 per attempt. But that is not a lot of attempts when you are playing most of the game with the lead. Want to now what a lot of attempts is? How about 49 pass plays, 48 throws and a sack. Many were unnecessary, none more than a failure late in the third quarter that could have broken the game open.
The Bills suffered a heart-break on their opening drive of the second half, an 11-play march that ended when Brown fumbled the ball into the end zone for a touchback. But they still led 10-3, and when the defense forced a quick stop they got it back at their own 24-yard line. After eight plays, five runs and three passes, they had a second-and-two at the Kansas City three-yard line. When you are running well that is an ideal setting, since you can get the first down without scoring, and the chance for more plays. Yet they called back-to-back throws by Orton, both incomplete, settling for 13-3 and leaving a Chief offense that does not like to hurry up the chance to stay within their comfort zone. Not only did the Buffalo offense not run then, but it began a stretch of 15:54 of game time without another running play, although Orton was credited with one early in the fourth quarter when getting positive yardage after being forced out of the pocket. 19 of the last 21 plays were passes, despite the success they had been having overland.
Marrone had two somewhat daring chances in the second half to use that successful ground game, but refused. On consecutive drives he chose to punt on fourth-and-one plays, from the Buffalo 41- and 46-yard lines. Not terrible calls, because the defense was playing well, and did force quick KC punts each time. But being a little more aggressive could have made a huge difference. It is when Marrone did gamble on a fourth down that raises a bigger question. The Bills faced fourth-and-10 at the Chiefs 15 with 2:31 to play, still holding all three time-outs. Kick a FG there, and with the 2:00 warning also remaining, a defensive stop could have gotten them the ball back with plenty of time, needing only three points to win. Instead it was an incomplete Orton pass. This time the defense could not force a three-and-out, and Buffalo only got possession at the 20, with 0:14 remaining.
Marrone did not call plays like he had a 5-3 team with a scoreboard advantage for most of the game; he called plays like he did not trust his offense. That speaks volumes, and the quick turnaround for Thursday’s trip to Miami is one that might provide savvier leadership than he can deliver. But then again, even coaches that we once thought were savvy can also do things that are difficult to fathom…
Item: The 49ers (Duh) ran the ball, until they didn’t
The play calling by Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman in the second half of games has been confounding this season, so much so that there have been multiple takes to break down the issues. There was “Those 49er second half disasters” (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1046377.aspx) back in September. Then there was “The 49ers lose their way, again” (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1079208.aspx) last week. So it was most refreshing to watch them with their backs to the wall against New Orleans on Sunday, once again remembering who they were. For a while.
The 49ers opened the game by running 11 times on 16 plays over their first two possessions. Shazam – a 14-0 lead. Back-to-back rushing TDs ended a remarkable stretch in which they went 337:06 of football time without one. By the half Frank Gore had 15 carries, more than he had the entire game vs. St. Louis the previous week, and it was both a 21-10 lead, plus also possession of the ball to begin the second half.
And then…
San Francisco only ran the ball four times on 12 snaps in the third quarter. There was only one first down, and the momentum of the game completely changed. When the 49ers got the ball at their own 22 with 1:52 remaining they were on their heels, and in fact the last drive was a mini-disaster – Colin Kaepernick dropped back to pass seven times, with only one completion. But that one success just happened to be for 51 yards to Michael Crabtree, a season-saving play. If that fourth-down is not converted, they fall to 4-5 and the playoffs would have been far more dream than reality, for one of the league’s most talented teams. But the coaching staff dialed up another second half that created peril. It is mind-numbing that they go away from the ground game, and it clouds what would otherwise be an intriguing matchup play this week. Because…
Item: The Giants allowed 350 rushing yards
You should get into the habit of listening to the late-week Podcast that I do with Steve Fezzik and R. J. Bell, breaking down the NFL over the course of about an hour to get into some significant pointspread issues. One of the discussions last week (/pregame-forums/f/9/t/1081187.aspx) dealt with the fact that Rex Ryan will almost always get the Jets to go hard, regardless of their record, but the same could not be said about Tom Coughlin with the Giants. And while it might have looked like Coughlin had his team motivated and prepared at Seattle, tied 17-17 in the fourth quarter, take a deeper look.
The New York defense was gashed for 350 rushing yards. Three hundred f’ing fifty. The Seahawks ran inside. They ran outside. Marshawn Lynch scored four TDs. Russell Wilson got first downs on the edges without contact on multiple occasions. Back-up RBs Christine Michel and Robert Turbin combined for 103 yards at 10.3 per carry. Seattle only punted once.
Despite the scoreboard being tied in the final stanza, the Giants were beaten by 2.9 yards per play in the game, which was a half-yard per snap worse than Green Bay’s trouncing of Chicago. And it absolutely does raise some flags about Coughlin’s ability to have his team play hard when things go badly – in the 41 games since winning their last Super Bowl, they have been beaten by 15 points or more 13 times. That is an alarming count.
So do you think that Harbaugh and Roman will see enough on film this week to decide to head to New Jersey and run the ball?
Item: Lies, Damned Lies, and Chicago/Green Bay box-scores
Speaking of that Packer domination of the Bears, how about this for a classic example of how statistics can often paint an absurd portrait. Here are the tallies from the two head-to-head games between those teams this season -
Green Bay Chicago
1st Downs 42 54
Total Offense 809 807
And then…
Points 93 31
Did the scoreboards lie? Not for the games that I, or any football observer with a pulse, saw. In a stretch of 70:15, from late in the first half in Chicago until early in the third quarter on Sunday night, the Packers ran off 66 straight points. Sixty f’ing six.
Yes, the Bears have some talented players, at least on offense. And their overall statistics could still tantalize some into believing they have potential, largely because of how misleading those Green Bay games were. But over the last three games they have been out-scored 94-7 in the first half. Repeat that to yourself, Ninety-four f’ing seven. That count is more significant than any seemingly hidden positive statistic that you may see, and shows a simply awful ability by Marc Trestman and his staff to bring the team in to a game prepared.
Item: Don’t start liking Michael Vick
Yes the Jets brought it against Pittsburgh, a tribute to Ryan as a motivator. They whipped the Steelers at the line of scrimmage, averaging exactly twice as many yards-per-rush, and even with a patchwork secondary they got a pair of interceptions off of Ben Roethlisberger, holding the Steelers out of the end zone until that late strike to Martavis Bryant with 1:16 remaining. But do not fall into the trap of believing that Michael Vick was any kind of catalyst.
Vick made one big play in the air, connecting with T. J. Graham for 67 yards. The other 21 pass plays produced a net of just 58 yards, including four sacks. A QB that has made a career out of his mobility has now been sacked on 12.1 percent of all drop-backs, the worst mark of any current starter in the league by far (no one else is even at 10 percent). It shows his inability to make reads and get the ball out, and will remain a factor down the stretch for the Jets, even with Sunday’s win giving their psyche a badly needed boost.
Item: Tampa’s Cover 2, now Covers Some
Some of the best value over the latter part of any NFL season can come from recognizing subtle team improvements that are far off of the radar screens. Which puts the 1-8 SU and 3-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers front and center. A month ago there was a take on the disastrous transition the defense was having to Lovie Smith’s defensive schemes, and how so many of the issues came down to the complexity of those packages – “When Cover 2, Covers None” (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1062234.aspx). Pay particular heed to the closing paragraph, and the speculation about how much impact the bye week might have. And then get ready to segregate the 2014 statistics a bit.
For the full season the Tampa Bay pass defense has allowed a 103.7 Passer Rating to opposing QBs, with only the Bears and Jets faring worse. But how much of that is old news, and how much the current reality?
Pre-Bye Post-Bye
PR 111.1 86.4
Net YPP 8.4 7.0
TD/INT 15/4 4/2
Yes, the usual rules governing small samples must apply, as does the fact that they were naturally up against mostly different teams. But the improvements are clear to see, and since one of those opponents was a common one, Atlanta, how about isolating the games vs. Matt Ryan:
1st 2nd
PR 155.9 96.0
Net YPP 11.2 6.6
TD/INT 3/0 1/0
Rather meaningful, that. The Bucs really are making strides on defense, and note that despite that seemingly awful 1-8 tally they have had the lead in the fourth quarter in five of their last six games, including all three since the bye. The playmakers and confidence level may not be there to win games yet, but in terms of exceeding market perceptions, there is some genuine upside for this bunch, much of it off of the radar.
Item: The Raiders did it again
A continuing theme throughout this season has been how late-game drives when being blown out have provided the Oakland offense with a great deal of their production. They did it one more time on Sunday, going 97 yards on eight plays to get a completely meaningless TD against the Denver reserves with 0:48 remaining. Outside of that drive they had just 135 yards on 54 plays. As bad as they are, the truth is even worse than the overall statistics you will see from full-season data-bases, so you have to remain cautious with them down the stretch. You can look to back them when the favorite would appear to be unmotivated, and not care about a margin, but do not try to make a play on them based on their own merit.
Vegas (Monday’s with the Review-Journal)…
Las Vegas is not a terribly nostalgic city; when the foundation for a place is the “house edge”, there are naturally going to be unpleasant memories for many. And because transplants still outnumber those born here, for a lot of residents nostalgia comes more from where they were, rather than are. But for those that have been here more than a couple of decades (if you pre-date the Mirage, and the development of the mega-resorts, you are in the club) there can be those warm feelings about the unique arc of the valley through those years, and when there is a hankering for nostalgia the process of reviewing the NFL box scores from the Monday Review-Journal has a calling – a booth at the Coffee Shop at Jerry’s Nugget (1821 North Las Vegas Boulevard).
Jerry’s had been ticketed for an NFL Monday from the start of the season, with this year being the 50th anniversary of the property. It was originally founded by Jerry Stamis, and is still under control of the Stamis family, now being run by the third generation. Times are not easy given the economic climate and the location, with Chapter 11 narrowly being averted last September. But the Nugget carries on, and the iconic Coffee Shop remains a valued part of Las Vegas lore. It fits the playbook best when the temperature has cooled down and comfort food is called for, because what they have done best for that half a century is still what they do best – proper portions of well-made classics.
While many dining destinations are chosen based upon the particular taste buds at the time, the decision process for Jerry’s is easy – you go when you are hungry. You will not be dazzled by haute cuisine, but you will be pleased by the integrity behind what is on the plate, like the generous stacking of an open-faced hot roast beef sandwich. And after passing those two pastry cases that are legendary to locals as you enter, you will also have to sample something from them, often packed to go (this time a slice of tres leches cake, for the Panthers/Eagles second half).