Point Blank – November 10
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #11
The NCAA Week that Was, with some key items that you can incorporate into our own handicapping portfolio, as a fascinating season enters the home stretch.
A Saturday for the “Eye Test”
There has to be a certain perverse pleasure about the number of curve-balls being thrown at the Playoff committee in their first go-round. There is going to be that difficult matter of sorting out the SEC, should Mississippi State stumble in those upcoming road games at Alabama and Ole Miss, and had the Crimson Tide not rallied on Saturday night, the very real possibility of that conference being shut out of the proceedings would have increased. But for this past Saturday there was a different set of unique circumstances that require attention – for the “Eye Test”, it was a day comparable to looking directly at the sun. One came away having to shake their head and re-focus after some blurry moments, trying to determine how much to believe, because there were things that happened that could not have happened, could they? And it throws a major issue at those committee members in terms of the old “how well is a team playing right now” argument. So let’s get to them –
Item: You can’t run off 45 straight points in Norman
Unless you are the Sooners, of course. Not this Saturday. Baylor became the neglected team in the first two committee reports, largely due to a soft non-conference schedule. But Saturday’s showing was so dominant that there can be a significantly different appraisal taken. The Bears trailed Oklahoma 14-3 at the end of the first quarter, and were once again having to face that legacy of road failures, not having beaten a ranked team away from Waco since 1991. Then came a prolonged surge of remarkable football, a 45-0 run over the final three quarters, and given the opponent and the venue, you will be hard-pressed to find that level of play over that long of a stretch through the annals of the sport. This was not just the finesse of that Art Briles spread passing game, but instead a display of all-around football that did something to a Bob Stoops team on their own field that we never thought we would see. Now comes a second bye week in less than a month, which means some fresh Bears for the closing kick, a frightening prospect for their last three opponents, and a challenge for both the committee, and the oddsmakers.
Item: You can’t score TDs on six straight possessions in East Lansing
In the committee ratings last week, Michigan State was in a prime spot to get one of those coveted four spots, but Ohio State was much further down the list. An ugly loss to Virginia Tech will do that, with mistakes being made by freshman QB J. T. Barrett a big factor that night. But now what? The same young QB that was not ready for prime-time back in early September had a remarkable outing against one of the best defenses in the nation, on their own turf.
Barrett and the offense took possession at their own 49 with 0:48 remaining in the first quarter, trailing 14-7. It took them eight plays to score a TD that tied the game, and began a stretch in which six straight drives found the Spartan end zone, with those marches amassing 407 yards in 37 plays. Over nearly three full quarters, they averaged exactly 10 yards per play against that Dantonio/Narduzzi defense. They would not be stopped until the final minute of play, and even on that last drive wiped out much of the clock by marching to the Spartan 33-yard line in 10 plays.
The Buckeyes won in double figures despite being -2 in turnovers, which is a major achievement. It was such a startling performance that it does bring those “current form” arguments into play, which was not lost on Urban Meyer in his post-game lobbying - "I'm glad we got to play in prime time. 'GameDay' was here. I'm glad everybody got to see the Ohio State Buckeyes because this is a different Buckeye team than it was early in the season." Now Meyer and his team will be prohibitive favorites in each game the rest of the way, and given his awareness of all of the politics involved, you may want to tweak their power rating for some “game management” factors – this is not a bunch that is going to back off the throttle.
Item: You can’t play without two offensive key cogs and wipe out a Top 10 team
TCU had to take on Kansas State without two major offensive weapons – RB B. J. Catalon, the team’s leading rusher with 493 yards and 10 TDs, and also 14 receptions for 163 yards and another score, plus deep threat Deante’ Gray, who had caught 29 passes at 16.8 per reception, including seven TDs. It was bad timing for such a showdown game. Which has to make us wonder what would have happened if they were not so short-handed. It was a rout. The Horned Frogs rolled to 41 points, 28 first downs and 553 yards, with Aaron Green stepping up at RB with 171 yards and a TD, and Trevone Boykin and the passing attack not skipping a beat. The defense held the Wildcats to just 34 yards on the ground (Sub-Item: You can't outrush a Bill Snyder team by 300 yards...).
There may be some clarity coming on the TCU prospects Tuesday evening, with the Horned Frogs likely in a position to only need to win out. That is manageable against the likes of Kansas, Texas and Iowa State, and the depth that they are showing in the skill positions on offense (David Porter, who had not caught a pass in three weeks, produced 7-84 and a TD) could mean dizzying scoreboards against the Jayhawks and Cyclones, should “style points” still be an issue at the time.
Item: You can’t give up a 78-yard pass and score points on the play
This next topic drifts away from the theme of some brilliant team performances, and instead to a particular bounce of the ball that may have been the most unique in the history of college football, and also one with major Playoff implications. Utah opened with a strong first quarter against Oregon, holding a 7-0 lead, and on the first pay of the second the Utes were on their way to 14-0, with Kaelin Clay running alone towards the end zone after catching a pass from Travis Wilson. You have almost assuredly seen the video by now – Clay celebrated too early, dropping the ball around the one-yard line, and after a brief scramble it ended up in the hands of Joe Walker, who was surrounded by a host of Duck defenders-turned-blockers as he ran the length of the field for a TD. It was suddenly 7-7, instead of 0-14.
Does that play lose importance given the 51-27 final? It should not. A couple of weeks ago there was a prelude to what will be a regular feature here, “The Play’s the Thing” (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1073456.aspx), those attempts to isolate how a particular play in a game can impact the final outcome by far more than what the seven points for a single snap allows. That was just such a play. Give the Utah defense a two-TD lead (three sacks in shutting the Ducks out in the first quarter), and allow the Utes to work Devontae Booker (only 18 carries) instead of having to go to the air (33 passes), and who knows how that game flows. Suffice to say that if Clay holds the ball for one more stride, the odds of Oregon winning by 24 points could only be measured by a microscope. And it is a genuine question as to whether or not the Ducks would have won the game at all.
Item: And when the bough breaks…
The weekend winners make the front-page headlines, and stay there for at least one more game. The losers get relegated to the back pages, but their stories might be even more intriguing form a handicapping standpoint. While there have annually been teams with their sights on the National Championship that have it come crashing down via late-season defeats, the Playoff format not only brings more teams to the list, but the published standings also make it more tangible. So what happens to those that will now have to re-adjust their emotional compass? After weeks of high intensity at practice and during the games, which got them to their lofty level, can they maintain the focus and keep improving? Or do they fall flat, and play beneath the power rating they have built up? Let’s look at the particular teams to set the stage:
Auburn: There are no real cures for hangovers; some favor the “Hair of the Dog” as a way of keeping the body from having a crash as the alcohol leaves the system. In this case, could a trip to Georgia be “Hair of the Dawg” for Gus Malzahn and his team? Facing another big game could provide some needed motivation, and note that they are still not out of the SEC West yet, where the prospect of a multi-way tie for first place remains. As long as the showdown at Alabama closes out the schedule, it is unlikely that the Tigers ever lose all of their steam in terms of daily preparation.
Kansas State: It may not be so bad in Manhattan. The Wildcats did not enter the season with Playoff aspirations, and that early loss to Auburn kept the talk off of the table. So even though the loss at TCU knocks them out of the hunt it may not be devastating to their season, especially with a chance to turn the Big 12 into a three-way tie if they can sweep out. A bye week awaits, and Bill Snyder’s team should regroup well.
Michigan State: There are clear danger signs here. The Spartans felt that they were good enough to be in the hunt, and the fact that they controlled Oregon for long stretches in Eugene brought a high degree of confidence, even through defeat. But now there are two losses, and a defense that they had hoped would be the catalyst was dinged for 95 points and 1,059 yards in those failures. The remaining schedule – at Maryland, vs. Rutgers and at Penn State, does not bring a motivational target, which leaves Mark Dantonio trying to light a fire with wet matches.
Notre Dame: Two losses in a span of three games creates a challenge for Brian Kelly to re-motivate the Fighting Irish, especially without a major target ahead until the trip to Los Angeles to face USC in the regular-season finale. But his task might be made easier because it is such a young team, with only five seniors on the two-deep (only two starting), so it is not as though a bunch of veteran players have had their last chance slip away. One of those underclassmen is QB Everett Golson, and perhaps having some of the big pressure off can help him to settle down a bit. His issues were first detailed here over a month ago - “Everett Golson’s day was more like Bryce Petty’s than you might think” (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1056758.aspx), and he now has 17 turnovers over the past six games. That is more than 74 teams have had all season. Anticipate a good work ethic from this group because of Kelly’s intensity, and the youth of the roster, especially with a shot at a top tier bowl still available (they need to finish in the Top 10, but there are guaranteed losses for five teams ranked ahead of them in the current AP Poll).
Item: The option, on the first look
Option football brings its own unique challenges to opposing defenses, since so few teams run it that adjustments are difficult. For many defenses it will be the only game all season against such tactics, and part of the difficulty in preparation is that they often lack the personnel for their offensive scout team to emulate the opponent well in practice. Over the years ACC teams begin to at least assemble a plan against Georgia Tech and Paul Johnson, while those that face the service academies also get some familiarity, along with Mountain West teams seeing Bob Davie’s sets for multiple seasons now. But when new coaches come into a conference there can be a rude awakening, and those are settings worth studying a little closer. Saturday brought some prime examples.
New Boise State HC Bryan Harsin, and DC Marcel Yates, had absolutely no clue at New Mexico, although the Broncos escaped in a 60-49 win, but non-cover. The Lobos ran for a shocking 417 yards in the first half, on only 24 carries, and Teriyon Gipson and Jhurell Pressley had both topped 150 yards by intermission. An injury to Pressley helped to slow down that ground game after intermission, as did a game situation that forced more New Mexico passes, but the Lobos still finished the game with an average of 10.3 yards per rush.
Meanwhile N. C. State coach Dave Doeren, and DC Dave Huxtable, got their first look at Georgia Tech this season, after not having to face the Yellow Jackets LY. It was not pretty. While a pair of defensive TDs by Tech helped break open the 56-23 win, the Wolfpack defense never gave any indication of making stops, allowing 479 overland yards on 64 attempts (7.5 per rush). It brought back memories of when Larry Fedora and his North Carolina staff faced Johnson for the first time back in 2012, a 68-50 Tech win, or that first look for Scott Shafer and Syracuse LY, a 56-0 Yellow Jacket rout. It shows the difficulties of seeing these attacks for the first time, and makes for some matchups worth circling in the future.
Item: But it is not just about running with Georgia Tech
It does get tougher for Georgia Tech this week, a key ACC showdown against a Clemson defense that has been one of the nation’s best, but as you go to break that one down note that it is not just all about running this time. Take a look at the Team Passing Efficiency tables and you see a few major surprises – none more so than the Yellow Jackets checking in at #7. They still do not throw it often, 15 attempts per game, but they are doing a terrific job of spreading defenses – Justin Thomas may only have completed 50 percent of his throws, but they have gone for an average of 9.7 per attempt, with 14 TDs vs. only four interceptions. He would rate #6 in the nation in individual passing efficiency, if he had the 16 more attempts needed to qualify.
Tech only has four players that have seven receptions or more, but all four check in at 18.3 per catch or higher, including DeAndre Smelter leading the way with 27 receptions at 22.0. This balance has led to a profitable 5-2 ATS tally through ACC play, and note that in the losses it was not the fault of the offense, which ran for 658 yards and passed for 436 more in falling to Duke and North Carolina. With two high-profile games remaining, make sure that acknowledging this passing attack is a part of your process.
Item: Welcome back Todd Gurley
One of those high-profile remaining games for Georgia Tech will be against Georgia, between the hedges in Athens. And it will mean Johnson and his staff having to defend Todd Gurley, who returns for the Bulldogs this week vs. Auburn. It also means re-examining the Georgia power rating, and with the early markets sitting on -2.5 over the Tigers, there is some food for thought here. Gurley is a terrific talent, and may well be the best RB in the nation. But…
Replacement’s Nick Chubb and Sony Michel have been just fine. Chubb has 895 yards and seven TDs at 6.7 per carry, and Michel 307 yards and four scores at 7.9. That duo combined for 254 yards on only 29 carries in Saturday’s rout of Kentucky, with each scoring once. And it was not as though it was the fault of the RBs vs. Florida two weeks ago – Chubb ran for 156 yards and a TD at 7.4 per attempt, with Michel not playing. In reality, how much better can Gurley make this team, given how deep the Bulldogs are at his position?