Friday night college football and we will see the Fresno State Bulldogs take on the UNLV Rebels at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. The game has a start time of 10:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on CBSSN. Current Vegas odds have the Bulldogs listed as 9.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 65.5.
Analysis: Starting off with USC, Nebraska and Utah will put most team at 0-3 to start the year, which is exactly what has happened to the Bulldogs, but now that their schedule has lightened up they have come back to win 3 games in a row, including last week’s 24-13 hard fought win over the San Diego State Aztecs. The Bulldogs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games on Friday, but they are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games before playing Boise State. Brian Burrell is no Derek Carr, but has been decent throwing for 1045 yards with 8 TDs and 4 INTs so far, while leading a solid ground attack is Marteze Walker, who has run for 524 yards and 4 TDs thus far. The offense is not as explosive as last year, as they come in ranked 54th in total offense, 57th in passing, 43rd in rushing and 73rd in this scoring (29 ppg). That’s 14 ppg less then they averaged last year. The defense has been a huge problem for this team as they come in ranked 112th overall, 81st vs the pass, 114th vs the run and 111th in points allowed (36.5 ppg).
UNLV went to a bowl game last year, but this team better cherish those moments as it will not happen this year. UNLV comes in at 1-5 on the season, with their lone win being a 13-12 decision over FCS foe Northern Colorado. In all their losses they have been outscored by at least 14 points in each game. This is not a very good team this year. The Rebels are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in October. Blake Decker has thrown for 1300 yards this year so far, but he also has 9 picks to just 5 TDs. Very inconsistent. Overall the offense comes in ranked 98th in total offense, 70th in passing, 94th in rushing and 120th in scoring (16.8), while the defense ranks 125th overall, 87th vs the pass, 127th vs the run and 118th in points allowed (38.7 ppg).
Pick: I am looking at the Under in this one. This is rather a high OU line, considering the fact that UNLV has scored just 13.7 ppg in their last 3 games, while the Bulldogs have allowed just 17.7 ppg over their last 3 games. This game does not scream shootout at all as UNLV just will not put allot of points on the board with a very mediocre offense, while Fresno State’s defense has looked really good after getting through their first 3 games of the year. That means that Fresno will need to do the bulk of the scoring in this one and while they can I just don’t see them going crazy here with a trip to Boise State on deck. Mid 50s at best here.
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