Friday college football and we will see the South Florida Bulls take on the Cincinnati Bearcats at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. The game has a start time of 7:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN 2. Current Vegas odds have the Bearcats listed as 10 point favorites, while the total is set at 58.5.
Analysis: The South Florida Bulls have had a mediocre 3-4 start to their year at 3-4, but have played competitive games for the most part, going 5-2 ATS. In their last game the Bulls took on a bad Tulsa team on the road and came away with a wild 38-30 win. The Bulls have won 4 in a row ATS overall and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, but they are also just 2-8 ATS the last 10 in this series. Last week's 38 point outburst was a bit surprising as the Bulls had not scored more than 17 points in their previous 5 games. Offense has been a problem for the Bulls this year, as they come in ranked 120th in total offense, 107th in passing, 104th in rushing and 109th in scoring (21.7 ppg). The defense has bee n below average for them as they rank 79th overall, 75th vs the pass, 90th vs the run and 86th in points allowed (29 ppg).
The Cincinnati brought back a ton of talent from last year and were slated as a favorite in the AAC, but it hasn't panned out so far as they are just 3-3 overall and 1-1 within the AAC. The Bearcats are 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings between these team in Cincinnati, but they are also just 2-7 ATS off a won of 20 points or more. Last week they may have played their most complete game in a 41-3 pasting of the SMU Mustangs. Offense has not been an issue for this team as they come in ranked 44th in total offense, 12th vs in passing, 110th in rushing and 38th in scoring, putting up 34.3 ppg. The defense was to be one of the best in the AAC, but that just hasn't happened so far, as they come in ranked 123rd in yards allowed, 113th vs the pass, 122nd vs the run and 103rd in points allowed (34.5 ppg).
Pick: I am going with the Bearcats in this game. Cincinnati has struggle this year on the defensive side of the ball, but just like SMU last week, South Florida doesn't have the offense to take advantage of that. Last week the Bulls put up 38 points vs Tulsa, but in their previous 5 games they were held to 17 points or less in each game and even though they did put up 38 points last week they were held to just 412 yards and outgained by 76 yards in the game. Now they have to try and keep pace offensively with a Cincinnati Squad that has averaged 34.3 ppg on the year and do so with a defense that has allowed 29 ppg this year. The Bearcats have score 75 points in their last 2 games and I just don't see the Bulls coming up with enough points to keep this one close.
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