Week 5 college football and the Fresno State Bulldogs will travel to University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico to take on the New Mexico Lobos. The game has a start time of 8:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN 2. Current Vegas odds have the Bulldogs listed as 4.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 71.
Analysis: The Fresno State Bulldogs have not had a good start to their year as they are 1-3 out the gate, with their lone win coming last week vs Southern Utah. In their 3 losses the bulldogs have been completely crushed, getting outscored by 32 points or more in all 3 of their losses. This is a team that was supposed to contend for the MWC title, and they still may, but right now they are not playing good ball. The problem for this team is their defense that comes in ranked 125th in yards allowed, giving up 541 ypg, while also ranking 124th vs the pass (323 ypg) and 125th in points allowed (45.5 ppg). The Offense has shown that it really misses Derek Carr as they have averaged just 28.8 ppg, after putting up 43.4 ppg last year. QB Brian Burrell does have 5 TD passes on the year, but has hit just 54.4% of his passes for 584 yards this year so far.
The New Mexico Lobos had a total of 3 wins in the 3 years prior to Bob Davie becoming HC, but in his 2 years here has done a fine job recruiting and have guided the Lobos to 7 wins over that stretch. He still has a lot of work to do, but this team is on the right track. New Mexico comes in at 1-2 on the year, with their lone win coming vs in-state rival New Mexico State last week. In that game the Lobos had another strong game on the ground as they rushed for 432 yards in the game at 8.8 ypc. For the year the Lobos are ranked 3rd in the nation in rushing (349.7 ypg) and are led by Cole Gautsche, who has rushed for 237 yards so far. He is listed as questionable for this game. The defense has not been good for this team, as they come in ranked 120th in yards allowed (524.7 ypg), 128th vs the run (309 ypg) and 120th in points allowed (41.3 ppg).
Pick: Going with Fresno State in this one. The Bulldogs were expected to contend for the MWC this year, but they have not played that was so far as they were blownout in their three losses so far this year. The losses they had included road games vs USC and Utah plus a home game vs Nebraska, so you can see why they were blown out. Now they step way down in competition and I feel they will have a very good showing in this one, just like they did vs Southern Utah last week. New Mexico does have a powerful ground attack but I feel the Bulldogs can slow them down enough to allow their offense to put up enough points vs this very bad Lobos defense to get the cover here. Fresno State is 4-0 ATS the last 4 in this series and I feel that trend will continue here.
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