A quick sidenote before getting to my thoughts on the fight. RJ Bell and I will be broadcasting First Preview from the site of the fight, the MGM Grand (on press row), this Thursday at 1 PM EDT. Teddy Covers and I will also be on site for Friday's show. We'll cover everything from the NFL draft, to the Kentucky Derby, to the NBA playoffs, to of course, the fight itself. Listen live at www.espn1100.com, or check out the archives later each day on the Pregame homepage.
Handicapping the Fight of the Century
There’s been so much buzz about Saturday’s mega-fight between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao here in Las Vegas that nobody’s talking about the most important thing for sports bettors. HOW DO YOU MAKE A SMART BET?
If you want to make money as a bettor on this event…you have to look past the hype…past the media and ticket-buying frenzy…past all the hoopla that goes on in Las Vegas with any major sports event…particularly one that’s happening in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand! You have to focus on the fundamentals.
Which boxer is best positioned to win the fight. Right now. Not back in 2010 when everybody thought it was going to happen. Saturday. Their current skill sets. Their current strengths. Their current weaknesses. Who wants it more? If both want it the same, then who’s capable of imposing his will on the evening?
This is just like handicapping the Super Bowl, and championship games in college football or basketball. You’ll hear metaphors like “championship fight” used in those showcase events. Now you have to handicap a real championship fight! One of the most anticipated fights of all time.
You start with the Tale of the Tape. But don’t rely too heavily on the raw numbers that you’ll be seeing splashed all over the media in the days leading up to the bell. The Tale of the Tape starts the process…but doesn’t make the pick for you.
I’ve spent some time reviewing and evaluating what happened when these two battled five common opponents. It’s quite a luxury for a boxing matchup to have that much to study!
Both fought:
Oscar De La Hoya
Miguel Cotto
Shane Mosley
Ricky Hatton
Juan Manuel Marquez
Mayweather swept the slate, going 5-0 in those challenges. Pacquiao swept the first four, then went 2-1-1 in a legendary four-match rivalry with Marquez.
The results from that slate are largely in line with market pricing. Mayweather is favorite to beat Pacquiao. Many boxing pundits are picking Mayweather because it’s so hard to bet against a guy who always finds a way to win (and it’s EASY to go with the -200 favorite when all the media is doing is asking you to pick the winner!). The price near 2-1 makes it easy for YOU to think through this process.
Imagine if they fought three times:
*Would Mayweather win all three?
*Could Mayweather win two and force a draw in the third?
*Would Mayweather win two of the three, while Pacquiao won the other?
*Could Pacquiao split two and earn a draw in the third?
Imagining a three-fight series helps you deal with the percentages in play for the one-fight challenge that’s priced near 2-to-1. You’d better be VERY confident of Mayweather if you’re going to back him at that price. On the other hand, you have to figure out how Pacquiao is going to break through when the other stalwarts couldn’t if you want to cash your underdog ticket.
If you’re just betting for fun. Pick your favorite guy and root your heart out. If you’re betting as a serious handicapper…work through the process so you can find value.
*What does the Tale of the Tape suggest about an advantage?
*What do the common opponent resume’s suggest about an advantage?
*Which fighter might age better or worse since those common opponents were fought?
If the market has it right, you don’t have to bet! Just enjoy what could be one of the greatest fights of our lifetime. I personally believe there will be some betting value at the late-week price. Some of that edge can be spotted in the Tale of the Tape. The rest is easier to see if you adjust the tale told by fights with their common opponents for the impact of age.
Best of luck if you go for the knockout!
I have released and won ONE boxing Main Event in my three years at Pregame. I have a second - and it's this weekend's Fight of the Century. I'll have it posted on my Pregame homepage by Monday night (April 27). Click on the link below for details and the package beginning Monday evening.