NBA - 701 Indiana Pacers @ 702 Toronto Raptors
Projected Lines: 184 points / pk line
Toronto will surely be one of the most improved teams this season: they have a good coach, they got one of the most underrated players in the league in Kyle Lowry and a rookie like Jonas Valanciunas, who decided to join the NBA and he will have an immediate impact on the team, especially on defense. This isn't obviously enough for me to take them +3 against a "superior" team like Indiana, but the truth is that Toronto is currently more prepared to face the new season than Indiana.
Even though Toronto has three new players on their projected starting lineup in Kyle Lowry, Landry Fields and Jonas Valanciunas, the truth is that Coach Dwayne Casey didn't have to deal with injuries during the preseason (the only exception was Lowry that had to miss the first two games against NBA teams). Therefore, Coach Dwayne Casey was able to maximize the time by working on the rotations and not just inserting some players on the court to burn some time. He really prepared this team during the preseason to play in a similar way in the regular season!
Let's take a look at Toronto's starting lineup on the preseason:
vs DET: Calderon – Fields – DeRozan – Bargnani – Gray “starters”=64min
vs DET: Calderon – Fields – DeRozan – Bargnani – Valanciunas “starters”=97min
vs WAS: Lowry – Fields – DeRozan – Bargnani – Valanciunas “starters”=122min
vs NYK: Lowry – Fields – DeRozan – Bargnani – Valanciunas “starters”=149min
vs MIL: Lowry – Fields – DeRozan – Bargnani – Valanciunas “starters”=143min
vs MEM: Lowry – Fields – DeRozan – Bargnani – Valanciunas “starters”=102min
Note: By "starters", I mean the time of game that the five projected starters played in those games
Very few teams in the league used the same starting lineup on the last four games of the preseason, but this was the case of Toronto. I watched some of those games and even their second unit has already a good identity formed, with Jose Calderon, John Lucas, Linas Kleiza and Amir Johnson providing energy and pushing up the pace a bit more than the starting unit. Kyle Lowry has already become the team's playmaker with his all around game, DeMar DeRozan is well focused in working near the basket and forget his terrible outside shooting ability, Jonas Valanciunas had 4 blocks in one game and I really liked the team's flow in those games.
On the other hand, we have the complete opposite with Indiana. The team had several injuries on the preseason and some banged up players that conditioned Coach Frank Vogel and prevented him from creating an early dynamic on the team. Indiana lost Darren Collison in the offseason and that allowed George Hill to become the team's new PG. The problem is that Hill didn't play a single minute on the preseason and he is even questionable for this game. Also Danny Granger is banged up and he participated in only two games. Unfortunately, he is still far from 100% right now.
"(The knee) is testing me," Granger said. "They're telling me the pain can't do anything else to my knee. I'm going to have to play through the pain, but it hurts."
As usual, Indiana is also dealing with some problems on ball movement, with a low assist rate. D.J. Augustin has been playing well on offense, but he is a clear liability on defense and we will have in here a matchup between Kyle Lowry and D.J. Augustin that will clearly work in favor of the Raptors. I expect a lot of problems to the Pacers offense, as they lack continuity on their backcourt, while their frontcourt is the biggest concern Toronto will have on this game.
Indiana has a good frontcourt that defends well and they are extremely physical as a team. Therefore, I expect a physical game, with Indiana struggling offensively, but they will also make things tough to Andrea Bargnani and rookie Jonas Valanciunas, who is still quite raw offensively. Toronto was a good defensive team under Dwayne Casey last year and he has more options to continue the good defensive work he has been developing with the Raptors. I expect a good defensive game from both teams, with Toronto showing that they are more ready to face the new season than the Pacers, with more chemistry and less injuries, therefore I'll be taking both Toronto and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 188.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 Toronto Raptors (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Indiana 90 Toronto 88
NBA - 707 San Antonio Spurs @ 708 New Orleans Hornets
Projected Line: 183 points | San Antonio by 13 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
There is a new hype around New Orleans with the arrival of Anthony Davis. The team's future looks bright and in some web projections, I've seen people predicting the Hornets to have 40 wins this season. Well, those guys must be insane! New Orleans has too many black holes on their roster, especially on the SF position, besides the fact they have no depth on their backcourt and have an one-dimensional frontcourt, good on defense but poor on the offensive end, even though Anthony Davis might do some nice things once in a while.
During the preseason, it was evident what kind of a team will the Hornets be on this season: they will be a good rebounding team in both ends of the floor, something not surprising for a team with Anthony Davis on their roster. The Hornets were #1 on defensive rebounds during the preseason. However, the team is still struggling on the defensive rotations and their backcourt lacks lateral speed and strength with Greivis Vasquez and Austin Rivers.
New Orleans will still have to make some adjustments during the season and they have the problem of immediately facing San Antonio on their first game of the season, a team who is clearly one of the most well prepared teams in the league since the start of the season. San Antonio hasn't been a good offensive rebounding team over the last few seasons because that's not their current game strategy, so it won't matter a lot the fact that New Orleans will have a clear rebounding edge on their own basket. I'm waiting for Tony Parker to completely outplay Greivis Vasquez with his superior speed, while San Antonio will run multiple pick and rolls just to get on Robin Lopez's lack of foot speed. Manu Ginobili won't play tonight, so San Antonio won't be on a full force offensively, but we are still in front of a very well oiled machine with a lot of offensive solutions.
What I noticed the most in New Orleans during the preseason was their lack of offensive dynamic. For me, that wasn't a surprise, as they simply don't have talent on offense. Eric Gordon is likely to play tonight, but he isn't probably at 100% physically right now and he will have to deal with Kawhi Leonard defending him. In eight preseason games, the Hornets only reached the 20 assists mark twice and even though I know that was just the preseason, the Spurs had at least 22 assists in all their preseason games for example. The truth is that the Hornets have no offensive flow, while showing also some terrible movement on offense combined with poor decision making that led to turnovers and low-percentage shots.
With Robin Lopez and Anthony Lopez both lacking a good post up game, the Hornets are condemned in being a jump shooting team and the problem is that they aren't being effective, with the exception of Ryan Anderson, who still just shot 45-147 (30%) 3pts during the preseason! New Orleans committed a lot of turnovers, they were the 4th worst team in the preseason on this stat and like it has been an habit in teams coached by Monty Williams, the Hornets also don't have a good transition game, with the Knicks being the only team in the preseason that had less fast break points than them!
Gregg Popovich has already mentioned that he wants the Spurs to be a better defensive team than they were last season and the flaws of the Hornets' offense will be too evident on the early season, so I expect an easy win for San Antonio tonight, who won't have problems in shutting down the Hornets offense. Therefore, I'll be taking San Antonio tonight on a Double Dime Play and the Under on a Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 707 San Antonio Spurs (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Final Score: San Antonio 99 New Orleans 95
NBA - 711 Dallas Mavericks @ 712 Utah Jazz
Projected Line: 194 points | Utah by 12 points
Independently from the matchup of this game that is indeed very favorable to Utah, Dallas would always struggle in here due to their poor spot for tonight. We are talking about their first back to back game of the season, on a road-road spot, with tonight's game being in Utah, the worst team together with Denver to play on a back to back game. To make things even worse for the Mavericks, they played at 10:30PM EST last night, while they will play tonight at 9:00PM EST, so they have even less time to prepare for tonight's game.
Now looking onto the matchups. Dallas is undersized down low right now and that's clear with both Chris Kaman and Dirk Nowitzki out due to injury. So, Dallas was forced to use Elton Brand for 36 minutes last night, Brendan Wright for 20 minutes and even Eddy Curry was forced to play 17 minutes! Now imagine Eddy Curry running on a back to back game at Utah! Also Elton Brand doesn't "have" legs anymore to play back to back games after having played 36 minutes last night. With the Mavs struggling on the frontcourt, it wasn't a surprise that both Howard and Gasol crushed them yesterday, with a combined of 45 points, 16-31 FG, 23 rebounds, 8 offensive rebounds (the whole Mavs team had just 8!) and 4 blocks. My advanced numbers also show that the Lakers had 55.1% of rebounds, while Dallas had just 44.9%. This wasn't a surprise for me, as I had referred exactly that on my article about the game between the Lakers and the Mavs.
The problem is that Dallas will have to face the powerful frontcourt of Utah on this horrible spot for them. We all know that the Jazz have 4 solid interior players and it wasn't a surprise that Utah was the best rebounding team in the league during the preseason. I know it was just the preseason and that "means nothing", however there were no coincidences on this subject, as Utah is indeed a very good rebounding team. Dallas also had problems with turnovers during the preseason, as they want to play on a faster pace in order to try to score more in transition. That's mostly why they were able to score 13 fast break points yesterday, while committing "just" 12 turnovers. I believe they will struggle more today than they did yesterday because the Lakers' defense don't put a lot of pressure on the ball handler and they were indeed one of the worst teams last season in creating turnovers. That's something that won't happen tonight against the very aggressive Jazz, who use their superior athletic ability to run and score in transition like the... Mavericks! In fact, we are in presence of the two teams that scored more fast break points during the preseason: Dallas was #1 with 20.1 fast break points per game, while Utah was #2 with 20.0!
I expect this game to be played on a relatively fast pace, with a good number of points scored on transition plays, while Utah will completely explore their much better spot for tonight and especially their big matchup advantage down low with a very clear edge in terms of boards and points in the paint. Therefore, I'll be taking both Utah and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 Utah Jazz (-8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Final Score: Dallas 94 Utah 113
NBA - 713 Golden State Warriors @ 714 Phoenix Suns
Projected Line: 204 points
I watched some preseason games of the Suns and I can say that they will be a run and gun team this season. After the last two seasons, where they kinda slowed down the pace due to having the veterans Steve Nash and Grant Hill leading the team, they were the 6th fastest team in terms of pace during the preseason and coach Alvin Gentry had the luck of being able to almost use the same starting lineup on those games: Goran Dragic - Jared Dudley - Michael Beasley - Luis Scola - Marcin Gortat. At the same time, the Suns showed a lot of problems in defending near the basket and on rebounds, as usual.
The starting unit showed a great offensive flow, with a nice ball movement and good shot selection. The problem was that coach Alvin Gentry would remove the whole starting lineup from the game at the same time and the second unit was always terrible. Their last preseason game against Denver was a clear example of that, with the starters having the following +/- team points: Luis Scola +19; Jared Dudley +23; Michael Beasley +24; Marcin Gortat +19; Goran Dragic +20. At the same time, the bench had the following +/- team points: Markieff Morris -3; Luke Zeller -3; Wesley Johnson -8; Shannon Brown -7; Sebastian Telfair -4. Another way to realize that is to check the Suns' scoring outcomes in the first quarter during the preseason, the quarter where the starters played more time. In their seven preseason games, Phoenix scored 30 - 28 - 28 - 18 (Scola and Dragic played just 6 and 7 minutes respectively) - 21 - 28 - 24 points!
The good news for Phoenix is the fact that their starters will certainly play tonight more than 33 minutes each, so Phoenix won't suffer the offensive droughts that they suffered during the preseason. Stephen Curry will play tonight and I doubt that he can defend a PG like Goran Dragic, with his speed. David Lee is also a terrible defender and Phoenix will run pick and rolls against him for Luis Scola and Marcin Gortat. So, I believe in a good offensive game for the Suns tonight.
Golden State had a solid preseason, with Jarrett Jack being solid in Stephen Curry's absence. Klay Thompson will be one of the most improved players on the league this season, with him being already one of the best shooters in the league. Also David Lee is a very solid offensive player. The Warriors showed some sharp ball movement on the preseason and in a game against the Suns, they were able to shoot 57% FG, with the starters shooting 25-40 (62.5%) FG!
I expect the Suns to set this game to be fast paced, with both teams scoring easily, given the good job they have already shown on offense during the preseason. This 200 points line is the highest of today's games, but we are surely in presence of the game that has the most favorable conditions to be the highest scoring game of the day as well. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Golden State 87 Phoenix 85
NBA - 715 Memphis Grizzlies @ 716 Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Line: 192 points
In a way, we are in front of a similar scenario in here to the one we faced yesterday in the game between Miami and Boston. These two teams faced each other on last year's playoffs, on a series that went to 7 games and that was quite brutal. After two good offensive games, both teams struggled to score, while defense dominated, so all the advanced stats of both teams were ugly from an offensive standpoint.
For today's game, nothing that happened in that series really matters. I remember you that Chris Paul and Blake Griffin played most of the series while being physically limited and Caron Butler had an hand injury. Meanwhile, Zach Randolph simply wasn't ready to compete at 100% as well. For tonight, all these players are 100% healthy are ready to go.
The Clippers had an interesting preseason by going 5-3 on their game and 4-0 in the games when both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin played. If we're just talking about the games where they were at full strength, they defeated the Nuggets, the Jazz, the Heat and the Warriors, while winning three of those four games by double digits points. It's clear that Chris Paul is more adapted to the team and Coach Vinny Del Negro wants the team to score more points in transition than last season, where they were almost a 100% half court team. When Eric Bledsoe enters the court, then the pace is raised even higher and so, it wasn't a surprise to see the Clippers scoring 18, 15, 19, 20, 24, 5, 23 and 14 fast break points during the preseason. I watched their preseason game against Denver and Chris Paul was great on feeding the frontcourt despite being pressured by the Nuggets defense. The same will happen today against the Grizzlies.
Memphis had also a good preseason without any injuries, excluding Tony Allen. Zach Randolph looked good and that's excellent news for Memphis, who will now have their great firepower back on the frontcourt with Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay. Memphis had some moments last season where they were inconsistent, but this season with Zach Randolph at 100%, I expect them to be a more consistent team. The Clippers' frontcourt is athletic, but I don't think they are skilled enough to defend the almost unstoppable offensive combination of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.
I expect a relatively fast paced game, with both teams having a good efficiency on offense tonight, unlike what happened on last year's playoffs series. Both teams are now healthy and looked good on offense during the preseason and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715/716 Over 187.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Memphis 92 LA Clippers 101