The NBA season is right around the corner and the Brooklyn Nets 2013 NBA Championship Odds are currently at 50-1 ($100 bet pays $5000). They are 20-1 to win the Eastern Conference and their over/under season win total projection is 43.5. Below is the overall season preview by Pregame Pro André Gomes. 

There isn’t much to say about the last season of the Nets. The team ended a span of mediocrity in New Jersey, where in three seasons in a row they had records of 12-70, 24-58 and 22-44.

2011-12 Regular Season Numbers:

Deron Williams didn’t have exactly an efficient season, in fact he had some career lows last season as shooting just 40.7% FG and committing 4.0 turnovers per game, but that fact also happened because he didn’t have a lot of talent playing alongside him. At times, Williams looked like he was lacking motivation and sometimes I watched him playing off the ball, in a shooting guard position, due to the lack of offensive talent in the team last season.

Offseason moves 2012-13:

If we exclude the whole “Dwight Howard soap opera”, there wasn’t a team that created more buzz in the offseason than the Nets and I’m not just referring to the fact that the team is now located in Brooklyn with a new arena and with more media coverage.

The team’s owner Mikhail Prokhorov had a formula to improve his team by attacking the free agency. The first target was Lebron James, then there were talks involving Carmelo Anthony, but it was Deron Williams who ended up in New Jersey in exchange of a bunch of players and some draft picks. The potential risk of losing Deron Williams on this offseason was big, as he could have just walked out of the team this summer with the Nets getting nothing in exchange for him, but Prokhorov wanted to show that he was firmly decided in turning the Nets into a relevant team in the league.

Dwight Howard was the most desired target, but with the reluctance from Orlando in making a deal with the Nets, Prokhorov took advantage from Atlanta’s “desire” in getting free from Joe Johnson’s huge contract and the Nets were then able to sign Joe Johnson for basically nothing! Apparently, Johnson’s signing was the main reason why Deron Williams signed a new contract with Brooklyn, as he stated in an interview later on.

With the backcourt eating up a big chunck of the salary cap, the Nets had still the task of finding cheap solutions for the frontcourt. Brook Lopez was a free agent and the Nets were forced to pay more than it was supposed to secure his presence in the team without him showing over the past seasons that he can be the dominant center that the team needs.

Kris Humphries had already signed a new contract and the Nets added to their roster Andray Blatche, Reggie Evans and the rookie Mirza Teletovic.

For the backcourt , the Nets were able to secure one of the few good surprises they had last season in MarShon Brooks and they also added to their roster a group of veteran players such as Josh Childress, Jerry Stackhouse, C.J. Watson and Keith Bogans.

Can Brook Lopez step it up and establish himself as a dominant center?

After playing all 82 games of the regular season on his first three seasons in the league, Brook Lopez played just 5 games due to two severe injuries: the first suffered in the preseason and the second one in February after having only played 5 games.

A sample of just 5 games is too small to take any plausible conclusion, but still Lopez scored 38 points in Dallas while shooting 17-28 FG and in the following game he scored 28 points in Boston while shooting 10-21 FG. Now playing alongside Deron Williams, “pick and roll” will have to be a mandatory expression for any center, but according to mysenergy’s numbers, just 7.3% of the plays involving Brook Lopez were pick & roll Roll Man, with it having a ridiculous efficiency of just 0.57 PPP. In the previous season, the numbers were a bit better with 0.90 PPP, but Lopez will still have to adjust better to the potential fact of having more space close to the basket due to the need of the Nets’ opponents in guarding Deron Williams and/or Joe Johnson.

What should really concern the Nets is the lack of ability from Lopez is being a defensive pivot and especially his unexplainable lack of rebounding skills. After having 8.1 and 8.7 rebounds per game on his first two seasons in the league, Lopez had a disappointing 5.9 reb/game or just 8.1 RP/48 – the second worst mark in the league between centers. In the five games he played last season, Lopez managed to be even worse with 3.6 reb/game, but the sample was too small. If Lopez can get close to the numbers he had on his first two seasons in the league, then the Nets will be satisfied with his performance this season.

Best backcourt in the league?

Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace seem to form an amazing trio, at least in theory. We are talking about three very physical players for the position they assume on court and so, it will be very hard for their opponents to defend them.

There are no doubts that Deron Williams will have to have a better season than he had last season. There will be no lack of motivation this time and his passing options will definitely be better than the ones he had in the recent past. The question in here is to know if head coach Avery Johnson will be able to implement a system that can maximize Deron Williams’ talent. It’s good to remember that a few years ago we were discussing if the best PG in the league was Deron Williams or Chris Paul, mostly due to the system Jerry Sloan had implemented in Utah. Carlos Boozer was his favorite teammate in the Jazz’s pick and roll, so it will be up to Avery Johnson to find the best offensive solutions for the team.

In terms of Joe Johnson, the challenge will be to abolish the “Iso Joe” from Atlanta. According to mysenergy, Joe Johnson had a volume of 23.3% in isolation plays and 12.1% in post up plays, even though he was effective in both plays with 0.89 PPP (#33 in the league) and 1.01 PPP (#10 in the league) respectively, but this playing style makes the offense more static, something that doesn’t suit well a team that has Deron Williams. Joe Johnson has played alongside Steve Nash, so it won’t be a new situation for Joe Johnson, but Avery Johnson will still have to find a balance between “Iso Joe” and a more dynamic offense led by Deron Williams.

Gerald Wallace’s role in the team will be more important at a defensive level and in the help for the rebounds, if Brook Lopez can’t develop his rebounding skills. It’s important to note that Wallace will have to face in the same division Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce to understand the defensive importance Wallace should have this season. Wallace didn’t look very motivated in New Jersey last season, but in a way that’s understandable: he was traded from Portland that was supposedly a good team to another losing team when he was at the end of his contract, so he really wanted to avoid injuries in order to be able to sign a good contract.

C.J. Watson and MarShon Brooks are solid players, who will also give quality minutes to the team in the PG and SG positions, while Gerald Wallace won’t be as lucky, as Stackhouse hasn’t done anything relevant in the league for a while now and Josh Childress barely played in Phoenix on his comeback to the NBA. It’s possible that Joe Johnson may end up playing a few minutes per game at the SF position, with Brooks playing at the SG position.

Problems in the frontcourt

This statement will almost exclusively depend from what Brook Lopez will be capable of doing this season. Will he keep himself healthy this season? And what will be the level of his performances? His backup will be Andray Blatche who even though is just 26 years old and has already been billed as a player with a lot of potential, he hasn’t been able to materialize this potential, while being responsible for some pathetic moments in the Wizards frontcourt alongside JaVale McGee.

Maybe the change of scenario will help as Blatche might become more important to the team than expected. Maybe the only player that benefited from the Nets being a disaster over the last three seasons was Kris Humphries, who solidified his role on the team and the league meanwhile. He took advantage of the team’s lack of overall talent on his potential and the lack of rebounding skills from Brook Lopez to average more than 10 rebounds per game over the past two seasons.

However, the big surprise might come from a rookie that has been playing in Europe: Mirza Teletovic, who has been one of the best players in the Euroleague and the ACB over the last few seasons, with his offensive game being miles better from Lopez or Humphries. His shooting skills, especially on pick-n-pop plays will make Teletovic very happy to play alongside Deron Williams.

Final Thoughts:

The Nets have on paper conditions to be an outsider in the East, but everything really needs to work well for them. It isn’t easy to build a new system and have immediate success and this is exactly what the Nets will be trying to do this season. The fact that they will be playing on a division that promises to be very competitive won’t help them at all.

Brook Lopez will have to keep himself healthy and improve defensively and on rebounds, while Deron Williams will have to have a MVP caliber season. If these two things happen, then he will be talking about a team fighting for homecourt edge in the first round of the playoffs. But if that doesn’t happen, then the Nets will simply fight for a postseason spot this season.

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