The NBA season is right around the corner and the Dallas Mavericks 2013 NBA Championship Odds are currently at 50-1 ($100 bet pays $5200). They are 22-1 to win the Western Conference and their over/under season win total projection is 44,5. Below is the overall season preview by Pregame Pro André Gomes. 

No ambition to defend the title

The Mavericks had defeated the Miami Heat in the finals to become NBA champions after an impressive playoff run. In normal conditions, any organization would make every move possible to keep the team that had just become champion or would even try to improve the roster with new signings.

That didn’t happen with Dallas, as their owner Mark Cuban had other long term plays. Cuban didn’t make any effort to offer a new contract to Tyson Chandler, who had been one of the key pieces for the success of the team in the previous season. He was more worried with the team’s salary cap and he was especially ready to attack the free agency in the following season.

2011-12 Regular Season Numbers:

Dallas was one of the most veteran teams in the league – the players in the starting lineup in their first game against Miami (Kidd, Carter, Marion, Nowitzki and Haywood) were all 30 years old or older! And such a veteran team would have problems in a season where the schedule would require a brutal physical effort from the players. To make things worse, some players weren’t at their best physical shape and when one of these players was their best player, then Dallas would never be in a good condition. And I won’t even mention the whole situation involving Lamar Odom…

Dallas managed to be a good defensive team thanks to the excellent system Rick Carlisle implemented, as even without Tyson Chandler, the Mavericks were still a top 10 defensive team. Their problem was really their offense’s inconsistency that is directly related with Dirk Nowitzki’s lack of consistency.

Dallas Mavericks’ Offensive Ratings rankings:

For the first time on this century, the Mavericks’ offense stopped being a top 10 team in the league. The fact that Dirk Nowitzki had his lowest numbers in FG% and points per game since 1999-2000 easily explains this regression.

Still, Dallas was able to qualify for the playoffs as the #7 seed and in the first round against Oklahoma City, even though they suffered a 4-0 sweep, Dallas was close to win the first two games of the series that were played on the road, as they lost both games in the last seconds. In the following two home games, the Mavericks never had a real shot of winning them.

Offseason moves 2012-13:

Mark Cuban’s main goal for this offseason was to sign Deron Williams, who eventually preferred to stay with the Nets. There were later talks about an interest in Dwight Howard, but he decided to join the Lakers. The entire plan that Mark Cuban had set one year ago failed, but Cuban quickly built a Plan B and he was able to form a solid roster.

Both Jason Kidd and Jason Terry didn’t want to stay in Dallas and then joined the Knicks and the Celtics respectively, where they will be in more competitive teams than the Mavericks this season, therefore Cuban had enough cap space to improve the team.

He signed Darren Collison and O.J. Mayo as free agents. These two players are yet to confirm the potential they were supposed to have in the beginning of their career, but the positive factor is that unlike Kidd and Terry, these two players are less than 25 years old and so, they will have margin to fulfill their potential in the future.

Cuban also took advantage from one of the tools the organizations have since the lockout to get rid of the contract offered to Brendon Haywood by amnestying him and also quickly took advantage of the 76ers having done the same with Elton Brand to win the auction for his services. Also Chris Kaman was added to the roster to help Dirk Nowitzki in the frontcourt and suddenly, the Mavericks, who were supposed to regress a lot this season, have now conditions to remain competitive.

New backcourt for the future

Jason Kidd and Jason Terry are now in the past and the keys to the backcourt are now on Collison’s and Mayo’s hands. Collison is yet to show that he can fulfill the potential that he showed in his rookie season where he had to be a starter in New Orleans due to a serious injury of Chris Paul. His two seasons in Indiana weren’t exceptional, but they weren’t mediocre neither. In my opinion, Collison struggled a bit because his style never matched properly with Indiana’s system. Still, Collison was efficient on spot up plays with 1.06 PPP and it will be up to Rick Carlisle to maximize his potential, something I don’t doubt it will happen.

O.J. Mayo’s case is quite similar to Collison’s. Over the last two seasons, Mayo shot 40.7% and 40.8% FG in Memphis and we can’t even say that he didn’t have opportunities because he attempted 10.5 and 11.2 FGA/game, however the Grizzlies were using a system that didn’t match well with the Mayo’s style. Memphis is an athletic team built to attack the basket and Mayo is a traditional shooter. In Dallas, Mayo will try to have the role Terry used to have and I believe he will have more success on this role than he had in Memphis.

Vince Carter and Delonte West remain in the team and so, the Mavericks will have good backcourt depth for this season. Mayo and Collison will have an excellent opportunity to prove themselves as good NBA players, but if that doesn’t happen, this won’t be a problem for the team’s future, as they don’t have long term contracts (two years contract for Mayo and one year for Collison plus one optional year) and their wages are also relatively low.

The “return” of Dirk Nowitzki

After winning the NBA title, Dirk Nowitzski had a tough year last season. The previous season where he was the Finals MVP had already been very physically demanding and then he decided to play for his national team in the Eurobasket 2011. When he was supposed to be resting, Dirk was already in action and so, when the new NBA season started, Nowitzki was completely out of form and with a right knee injury that was a problem for the whole season.

The bad news is that Nowitzki is apparently feeling the same issues on his knee in this season’s training camp, with reports saying that it’s possible that he might need surgery to fix the problem. The Mavericks can’t survive with Nowitzki struggling as much this season as he did last season. With an easier schedule in terms of physical spots, the Mavs will be able to manage Dirk’s condition better, but still the first signs weren’t good. But if he keeps himself healthy, then we are talking about a player who is easily in the league’s top 5 when it comes to offensive potential.

Nowitzki’s frontcourt help

Lamar Odom was never a factor last season and the Mavericks with Nowitzki struggling physically, never had real offensive alternatives in the frontcourt. For that reason, the Mavericks were the 5^th worst team in the league in points in the paint per game, but they will have much more frontcourt depth this season.

Elton Brand is coming from an “excellent” season in Philadelphia last season, even though he struggled physically in the end of the season. His importance for the success of the 76ers has been very underrated, but the truth is that Philadelphia were a better team in both the offense and especially on defense when Brand was on the court. In fact, according to mysenergy numbers, Brand was the #9 most efficient defender in P&R - roll man plays and the #14 most efficient player in defending Post Up plays, so we are talking about a player who is still effective in both ends of the floor.

Chris Kaman’s case is much more concerning, as he has been struggling to keep himself healthy over the last few seasons. While being healthy, Kaman is a player with good offensive skills, who also has the advantage of being used to play with Nowitzki in the German national team.

In Shawn Marion’s case, he continues being a very useful player to Rick Carlisle, especially due to his defensive versatility. In some games, Marion will defend Chris Paul, while in others he will defend LeBron James. This ability of defending several positions is a tremendous advantage for any coach and Carlisle has been using that very well. 

Final Thoughts

The Mavericks aren’t surely contenders to win the West this season, as they weren’t already last season. However, they have potential to remain being competitive and to be in the playoffs one more season, as one of the lower seeds.

Rick Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the league in making adjustments and so, we will see the Mavericks trying new things and surprising the league right at the start of the season.

Their main problem will be Dirk Nowitzki’s physical condition. The first news aren’t great, but if he is capable of keeping himself healthy, then the Mavericks will be a dangerous team this season.

Mark Cuban’s Plan A hasn’t been totally abandoned in this offseason, as Dallas still has some flexibility on their budget to attack the free agency in the following season, but still due to the circumstances, Dallas isn’t a poorly built team and unless Nowitzki suffers a serious injury, the Mavericks will be one of the lower seeds in the playoffs that nobody will want to face in the first round of the postseason.

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter @GomesCapper

-$25 of picks FREE! No Obligation - No Credit Card Required - Becoming a member is Fast and Free!