Point Blank – October 15/16 MLB
The ALCS opener brought some early opportunities for the Blue Jays, which they could not cash in on, Corey Kluber making big pitches when he had to. And the back-end of the Indians bullpen was superb, Andrew Miller getting all five of his outs via Ks, and Cody Allen getting through the ninth inning with only 11 pitches. Meanwhile Marco Estrada threw well all night, but one of his few mistakes got punished by Francisco Lindor. But Estrada did his job for the team, keeping the entire bullpen fresh for a night-to-day transition.
Now time to get to work – we’ll have Palmtree checking in later, but I want to get the dialogs going.
The setting in Cleveland brings an awkward element – a sunny day and the starting time would bring impact shadows into play in Cleveland. The problem is that for now the best we have is "partly cloudy". That makes the handicap a bit precarious going in, because JA Happ and Josh Tomlin will be vulnerable without shadows, with a mild hitter’s wind to center also a part of the proceedings –
3:00 PM | 4:00 PM | 5:00 PM | 6:00 PM | 7:00 PM | 8:00 PM |
Wind |
9 mph South |
10 mph South |
11 mph South |
10 mph South |
10 mph South |
9 mph South |
Conditions |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Partly Cloudy |
Temperature |
71 °F |
71 °F |
70 °F |
68 °F |
67 °F |
65 °F |
Humidity |
51 % |
54 % |
56 % |
63 % |
70 % |
77 % |
Chance of Rain |
5 % |
5 % |
5 % |
5 % |
5 % |
5 % |
Happ’s unique late-career arc was brought front-and-center here in early August, and indeed the sport has caught up to him. Happ has only finished the 7th inning one time over his last nine starts, yet managed a single-game ERA of 1.80 at Texas despite allowing 10 of the 125 batters he faced to reach base. Meanwhile Josh Tomlin also earned a lead spot here earlier this season and simply is who he is – a pitch-to-contact guy that is not ideally-suited to taking on good hitters. The last time the Blue Jays saw him from this mound, on August 20, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin and Melvin Upton all hit HRs.
So how to best sort through this one? It sets up well for In-Running, but there is one opportunity that I will be looking for – Second Half Under 3.5, or a 3 at favorable vig, if it looks like the shadows will be a factor as we get closer to first pitch. With only Miller carrying a fatigue rating (though I would not be shocked if we saw him for a couple of batters if the need is there), the managers have plenty of late-game options.
Meanwhile the Dodgers/Cubs Series was covered in the Friday edition, Chicago a value up to -210. Joe Maddon gets to lay out his pitching staff exactly the way he wants to, a comfort Dave Roberts does not have, and the ideal way to lay it out is for Jon Lester to open against a team that has struggled badly vs. left-handers. And it is not just Lester today, but also a trio of lefties available from the bullpen as well. Lester was simply dominating down the stretch from this mound, allowing two runs over 30.1 innings of his last four starts.
For the Dodgers Kenta Maeda brings a question mark – now at 178.2 innings, is he worn down? In his last three outings he only lasted 9.2 innings, allowing 12 earned runs and 22 base-runners. This is not an easy time for a pitcher to recharge their batteries.
6:00 PM | 7:00 PM | 8:00 PM | 9:00 PM | 10:00 PM | 11:00 PM |
Wind |
13 mph South |
13 mph South |
13 mph South |
13 mph South |
13 mph SSW |
13 mph SSW |
Conditions |
Overcast |
Mostly Cloudy |
Mostly Cloudy |
Mostly Cloudy |
Chance of a Thunderstorm |
Chance of a Thunderstorm |
Temperature |
66 °F |
65 °F |
65 °F |
65 °F |
65 °F |
65 °F |
Humidity |
79 % |
80 % |
82 % |
85 % |
87 % |
87 % |
Chance of Rain |
2 % |
2 % |
2 % |
2 % |
71 % |
71 % |
With a pleasant night and a hitter’s wind to left-center, I see value for #904 Chicago Run Line (8:05 Eastern) at +110 or better, and that can be found in the morning trading.
And now on to Sunday…
Saturday brought some terrific drama across both LCS, with the Blue Jays/Indians limited to 11 base-runners because of both good pitching and the awkward Cleveland shadows, and a most memorable eight inning in Chicago, where the two teams combined to score seven runs despite only four batters making good contact at the plate.
Andrew Miller has been the MVP in the ALCS so far, coming back on short rest to strike out five of the six batters he faced yesterday, making it 10 Ks of 12 through two games, many of them “no-chance” at bats. But the Cleveland edge is still only a tenuous one at 2-0, and there is nothing wrong with plucking some Toronto +260, which is available in the marketplace this morning, to turn this into an extended series.
Dave Roberts got caught in a “damned if you do; damned if you don’t” in Wrigley, the issue of whether an intentional walk to Chris Coughlan, which would force Aroldis Chapman out of the game, was the optimal strategy. It did not play out well for him, Joe Blanton getting away with one bad slider vs. Miguel Montero, but not a second (as noted in the thread last night, one of the issues in loading the bases was limited how far away from the plate Blanton could have wasted an 0-2 pitch, though nothing excuses the awful toss he made). And of course it also means that Chapman stays fresh for this evening.
Now on the Game #2, which brings us a most unusual setting – a team that went 103-58 is starting a pitcher that led the Major’s in MLB by a rather wide margin, Kyle Hendricks and his 2.13, are home underdogs. And that includes a 9-2/1.45 from this mound for Hendricks, That can happen when the best pitcher in the sport is on the other side, and that is where so much of the handicap must go to – just how much Clayton Kershaw is there going to be.
Kershaw is not just a talent, he is a competitor; there is no questioning the mental toughness he will bring to this setting. But how good is he going to be physically? Kershaw’s stuff was good, but not great, in the Washington series, with some sequences in which he labored, which had to be expected – he had only worked 28 innings across five games since coming off the DL. Now there is a question of rhythm, after he worked on three-days rest Tuesday, and then again out of the bullpen on Thursday night.
As for the Wrigley wind, things look rather mild on that front -
6:00 PM | 7:00 PM | 8:00 PM | 9:00 PM | 10:00 PM | 11:00 PM |
Wind |
4 mph NNE |
4 mph SSE |
4 mph SSE |
5 mph SSE |
5 mph SSE |
5 mph SSE |
Conditions |
Fog |
Fog |
Fog |
Fog |
Fog |
Fog |
Temperature |
66 °F |
65 °F |
65 °F |
65 °F |
65 °F |
65 °F |
Humidity |
88 % |
90 % |
90 % |
89 % |
89 % |
90 % |
Chance of Rain |
83 % |
10 % |
10 % |
10 % |
12 % |
12 % |
For now I will see how the markets shape this one up over the course of the day, but Chicago bells begin to chime at +120 or better. I may save some of the investment notions for In-Running, which will allow for a close look at Kershaw’s early form. If this game extends beyond Kershaw vs. Hendricks, having some plus price on the Cubs may provide a lot of opportunity as the in-game trading takes place.
Our pal Palmtree has already taken a stand - "I played the +121 last night. Seems pretty obvious to me", and at the same price point I would have at least a small piece in pocket before the first pitch is thrown.
The rest of Eric's analysis -
Now that most of the required Sunday chores have been completed it's time to delve a little bit into last night's game and what's probably coming tonight.
There was very little in the first seven Innings to surprise anyone. Lester was very good and Maeda wasn't. The Cubs should have put them away but both Rizzo and Russell are in their worst slumps of the season. If that continues Bryant won't see a fast ball the entire series, which might bring the Dodgers back into it. They have a chance to win 3 - 2 games but absolutely no chance to win the 6-4 games.
The one constant that continues to be a game-changer is the Cubs defense. Everyone underestimates defense in baseball because there aren't a bunch of ready-made stats than anyone trusts or can be quoted. Both the Indians and Cubs are spectacular defensively so it's no surprise to see their success. That's why it was so shocking to see Bryant make such a stupid decision in the eighth inning. Trying to outrun Andrew Toles to a base is only a little less likely than trying to outrun Secretariat.
That mental error and the worst pitch Chapman threw all year to Gonzales (belt high right in the middle of the plate) made it a game, but the Dodgers were unable to steal the win even after the Cubs left it for them on a platter. I think Roberts made the right decision walking Coghlan and getting Chapman out of the game, but what was generally unnoticed but which Dave nails is that it took away Blanton's option to bury a ball in the dirt and strike out Montero. He was so worried about the wild pitch he left the spinner right in the middle of the plate. He actually did it twice, but Montero missed the first one.
I'm very surprised at the number posted for Sunday night. I understand that it's Kershaw, but he hasn't really been Kershaw since he came back and threw 110 pictures Tuesday night. The Wednesday outing was only 7 pitches but included a warm-up on no rest. How many pitches does he realistically have tonight? If this game is 1 - 1 in the seventh inning the Cubs are about -160 live betting. So I'm really surprised they opened Kershaw - 130 ish.I can't imagine anyone betting the Dodgers except as a FF play on Kershaw to be brilliant.
The Cubs can win the series tonight in my opinion. If they go up 2-0 and have already beaten Kershaw it's probably the last we've seen of him for 2016 and the last game at Wrigley until game 3 of the World Series. In what figures to be a low-scoring game. The Cubs defense and having the last at bat should be the difference.
On the other side, Dodgers need to try and get a run early and then try to play this as a game 7 as they've done the last couple of days. It'll be interesting to see if they use Ethier tonight after the home run. It would be a mistake but it's what all managers seem to do. The one thing I give them a lot of credit for is they're not afraid of the Cubs. Very few teams all year went into Wrigley believing the could win, but LA certainly did. Good for them.
The longer the game stays tied or a one-run game tonight the more the advantage flips to Chicago. It should be a fun game to watch with a lot of drama and somebody winning it very late. Should be fun.
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