Point Blank – August 10
A year in the life of J.A. Happ (quite a journey for a journeyman)…The Miami coaches are better, but you have to wait a while before you bet…It is getting late early for the Trump campaign…Hooray for Hollywood…
We have a lot to cover across several fronts today, and it starts with a look at a coach that might be 180 degrees from where we had Rex Ryan pegged yesterday. The problem is that there may not be a way to take advantage for a while.
Item: You can start liking Adam Gase (and staff) now, but don’t start betting until later
On Tuesday the focus here was on the sloppiness of Ryan and the Buffalo Bills, dealing with a coach who may be a step out of place in the modern NFL. In Miami it may be much different, the Dolphins going from being one of the most under-coached team in the league over the last couple of seasons, and certainly that being the case down the stretch last year, to having a couple of guys that may be strong fits for the next wave, HC Adam Gase and DC Vance Joseph.
Each is young yet has valuable experience, and because of how that experience has been accrued they are not bogged down by the notion of having to shift gears across what has been a changing football landscape. Of course it does not hurt that there are war horses like OC Clyde Christensen and OL coach Chris Foerster on one side of the ball, a combined 47 NFL campaigns for them, while Jim Washburn and Matt Burke 32 seasons to the defense, which aids the assimilation processes.
Let’s focus on the good first, Gase bringing in his way of doing things - "What we are trying to do, and I think I heard about this first from coach (Pete) Carroll out there (in Seattle) is get them in, work hard, and get them out of here so they have an opportunity to study and get good rest. Get them home early enough to allow them to recover and get energized, make sure the coaching staff has time to get energized. And what we've done, and what our whole philosophy is we're about is efficiency. Let's get here, let's work, whenever we're on the field, or whatever our recovery time is, let's maximize the time we have here together and when we're done with what we need to do and accomplish what we want to, then we get out of here.”
It isn’t just coach-speak, let’s let Dolphin veteran leader Mike Pouncey take it from there - "It's been very impressive to see. There's a lot of excitement around here and I really feel like the team has embraced what coach Gase and his staff have brought with them. Everything is very competitive and there is a competitive edge to everything they do. Just to see how he is competing with his coordinators, and the approach the coaches take to each practice, that rubs off on us, too.
"They are very high energy. Very efficient. He really gets what players need to be successful and he has a proven track record with his offense. Everybody around here feels energized. … Guys are really responding to the new schedule. It's very efficient and instead to sitting around a lot of the afternoon that down time is divided up throughout the day. We're getting time to rest and recover and everyone shows up ready to work. I think it's been great for all of us."
So far so good. And there was something else from Gase that I liked about as much as I have heard from any coach all summer - "I've got to do what we do best as an offense, not what I like. It's irrelevant what I like. I've got to do what our guys do well."
That is something that is refreshing because so many coaches are tied to a particular system, and try to force it out there whether the current roster fits or not. Many of the true greats – Lombardi, Landry, Shula, Parcells, andNoll among them – had a flexible philosophy that helped maximize whatever talent they had to work with.
Now the caution – because Miami has been so under-coached, the Dolphins are not going to hit the ground running. They need Football #101 before the advanced layers can be added, and as such the early offensive performances have been horrific. Gase was rather blunt about it after a recent scrimmage - "It was like somebody screwed something up every play and it was always a different guy so you can't just point to one thing … I don't think anything has poked its head [up] to say, 'This is what we're best at.' "
The Dolphins will be a work in progress this season. I think Gase and Joseph are a good fit for the modern NFL, but it will take time for their playbooks to get installed. It may not even happen in 2016, but if there are some positive signs through their early struggles we just may find some value spots late in the schedule.
Item: On trying to come to grips with J.A. Happ
I have used the tag “Full 162” here many times before and it can be a useful exercise – it is taking back the last full season for a team or a player to get a different perspective on long-term cycles. J.A. Happ sure as hell brings one. Last August in the middle of a pennant race the Blue Jays were giving a chance to a 32-yeard old lefty journeyman with the kind of resume that might not have even had him in the league if he was right-handed. But then…
W/L ERA
Pre-L 162: 55-60 4.21
Last 162: 22-4 2.57
How does that happen? It is too long of a stretch to attribute to Baseball Being Baseball, so the focus needs to be on something tangible. In this case there is – while many veteran pitchers turn their game around by finding some kind of tweak around their declining physical skills, usually a junk-ball, for Happ it has been the simplest, hence most unusual, of all. Happ is throwing more fastballs than ever, and batters are struggling with them.
Some of this credit can go to Pittsburgh pitching coach Ray Searage, after Happ’s 7-2/1.85 in 11 starts as a Pirate in 2015, with 69 strikeouts over 63.1 IP. But the Blue Jays deserve credit for bringing him back after an uninspiring run from 2012-14, perhaps recognizing the potential that was lurking.
What happens when a pitcher starts winning with his fastball? Confidence grows. How about this for something you sure as hell would not expect from a guy that will turn 34 soon -
Happ SWS%
2015 8.1
Career 8.2
2016 9.9
That is quite a jump. And you can see the confidence in that pitch by the reliance – Happ is throwing changeups on only 7.0 percent of all pitches this season, far below his career 11.5 rate coming in to the campaign. But before you get too excited here comes the Good/Bad of the pitching metrics; despite a 15-3/3.09 so far in 2016 they don’t like Happ all that much -
FIP xFIP SIERA
3.83 4.06 4.15
That collective trio brings him in close to league average, and understanding why does matter. Much of that stems from a .269 BABIP that looks a little too favorable, but what those categories don’t measure is that the Toronto defense is at .278, which means that when Happ takes the mound for this team he is not an outlier from a pitch outcome standpoint. But…
A big part of that defense, of course, is Kevin Pillar, who rates #1 in Defensive WAR at Frangraphs. He has been a major factor for a lefty who is only at 41.8 GB%. And now Pillar is on the DL, so while Happ has indeed done something tangible to turn a corner, he takes the mound tonight without a defensive compliment that has also made a major contribution to his positive run. It is not easy isolating Team Defense over a short cycle because of baseball’s geometry, but that is something that does go under the microscope. For now, accept Happ’s resurgence because of the tangible issue of the change in pitch distribution; now let’s see how long he can maintain it.
2016 Election Power Rating - Democrats -575
Few notions have been as important in the setting of this Power Rating than the gap in experience and savvy between the two political machines that are battling it out right now, especially since it is not the typical Democrats vs. Republicans conflict, but instead Democrats vs. Trump Campaign, which does not have the strength of full party support (that support actually dwindling as the voting nears, rather than increasing). As noted in raising the rating last week that gap is certainly a catalyst in impacting the popular vote, but it brings an even bigger edge in terms of maximizing the landscape of the Electoral College. Now that state polling numbers are becoming available, which carry more weight than the national surveys, those notions are being confirmed, and the path to 270 from the Republican side is a daunting navigation, one their candidate continues to make more difficult, instead of easier. Because it is becoming apparent that the Trump organization lacks the acumen to be able to turn some Blue states to Red, which must happen in the current map in order to win, the Power Rating rises; at this time the Democrats would still hold wagering value up to -375.
In the Sights, NFL…
Let’s do some NFL advance today so that you can get out into the marketplace, with #278 Los Angeles Rams (Saturday at 8:00 Eastern) still available at -3.5 in some key precincts, especially for Nevada residents. The ticket is good at -4, but you know what that half point is worth. The best pre-season investments come in games that bring both Play-On and Play-Against dimensions, and this one has them.
Naturally there is more than the usual focus for Jeff Fisher and the Rams, with a crowd of 90,000 expected for the return to Tinseltown. It will be a most unique environment for a pre-season opener, and setting a tone for those fans via a scoreboard “W” will be a Fisher priority. That path is made easier because the Cowboys they will face on Saturday night may bring as little as any team on the board this week. Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and the key skill people are not expected to play, rookie RB Ezekial Elliot also a no-go, and no team has weaker QB depth right now, with only rookie Daz Prescott and non-prospect Jameill Showers in he running for the #2 spot (they will likely add a free agent as cuts get made). There will likely be five QBs playing in this game, the three best all wearing Rams uniforms.
Yet is the gap on defense that may be the widest. Let’s let the words from Matt Moseley of the Dallas Morning News set the tone on that front - “OXNARD, Calif. -- The Cowboys' annual Blue-White scrimmage was held in front of a raucous crowd Sunday. No one seemed to know when it started, but it quickly finished due to a staggering lack of personnel on defense.”
That was his opener, and the conclusion brought it back around full circle – “For now, the most important thing is to add some warm bodies along the defensive line and at linebacker. This team is dangerously thin on defense without having made any cuts. It's hard to imagine this unit making it four quarters, but that's what will happen Saturday.”
There isn’t any scoreboard urgency at all for Jason Garrett in this game, the only priority is not getting anyone hurt.
In the Sights, Wednesday MLB…
There has been money to both Seattle and Under in the Wednesday marketplace and it has opened a window of opportunity, so it is #973 Detroit Team Total Over (10:10 Eastern) in play, 3.5 now an easy find.
The Tigers are #6 in full-season OPS, and #5 since the All Star break, and even against a vintage Felix Hernandez have plenty of hitters that bring success – Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez in the heart of the lineup are a combined 19-50 against him, including seven walks for a .456 OBP, and Ian Kinsler has four home runs. But this is not a vintage Hernandez right now – while he has gone 2-0 in personal decisions since returning from the DL it is at a 5.26 allowance, with nearly twice as many base-runners allowed (35) as strikeouts (19), and five HRs over just 25.2 innings. For the full season the metrics rate him below average – FIP of 4.61 vs. an MLB 4.17; xFIP 4.32 vs. 4.17; and SIERA 4.46 vs. 4.09, and behind him the bullpen is not well set at all. Closer Edwin Diaz has worked back-to-back nights, and four of the last five; Arquimedes Caminero, Drew Storen and Vidal Nuno all threw two innings on Tuesday; and Tom Wilhemsen has worked three of the last four days and four of the last six. Detroit getting to 4 being a “win” for this setting is more than fair value.
R.I.P. John Saunders
There are many takes here about the lack of competency across the modern Sports Mediaverse, which ends up helping us at the betting windows as false narratives are created, and spread. John Saunders was not one of them, and his class and integrity will be missed.
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