Point Blank – June 9
The Curious Case of Josh Tomlin (from the Baseball Being Baseball files)…We have a Finals after all…Ivan Nova is far more interesting right now than the markets think…
We have a legit NBA Finals after all, and it was somewhat surreal to watch on Wednesday. The Cavaliers indeed came out and played harder, with a particular sense of purpose, but in truth they were only good, not great. How can you beat Golden State by 30 by only playing good? When the Warriors simply brought little fight to the table, an In-Running +8 ticket late in the first quarter turning out to be a rather silly notion on my part.
I will delve more deeply into those happenings tomorrow in setting up Game 4, and the focus will be on what is sustainable from that Cleveland win, and what may not be. Getting physical absolutely mattered – the Cavaliers dominated the boards 52-32, after going -6 in the first two games, and the defense was outstanding. Hence, why Kevin Love’s agent has to be in tears this morning, those two elements being much stronger for Cleveland without him on the floor.
But the real key was Kyrie Irving, who stepped up and played. He didn’t just make shots, he played – eight assists vs. only two turnovers across his 36:36, dominating his matchup at the point vs. Steph Curry, and showing determination on defense, if not always aptitude. Curry now has nearly as many turnovers (15) as made FGs (17) in the series, which makes Friday a rather interesting test from his side of the equation.
And while some credit must be given to Tyronn Lue for having his team composed, and creating a proper plan without Love, how in the hell can LeBron James be on the court for 40:04? James played 7:22 in the fourth quarter, despite the margin never getting below 22 points, and with only one day off before Game 4. But more on all of that tomorrow; for today it is the opportunity to go in-depth to one of the more intriguing stories of not only the past two MLB seasons, but across my betting lifetime.
On understanding Josh Tomlin, and Baseball
You would have made more money backing Josh Tomlin through his 10 starts this season (+$807) than Clayton Kershaw though his 12 (+$790). Tomlin takes the hill tonight at Seattle sporting an 8-1 record, Cleveland winning his no-decision to make it 9-1 when he starts. And this is on the heels of a similar run in 2015, Tomlin sporting a 15-3 mark across the last two campaigns, and The Tribe going 17-3 across his 20 outings.
This has come from a seeming journeyman pitcher, who entered 2015 with a career 28-29/4.89 tally. So how does one go from that level to where Tomlin currently resides? It may be one of the ultimate cases of “Baseball Being Baseball”, and not necessarily anything special from his end. So buckle in for a fun but important ride, because this is not just about Tomlin, but a crucial look into the sport itself for those of you that will be seeking value across the diamonds throughout the summer(s) ahead.
Let’s start with a teaser…
Tomlin’s FIP
2010 4.59
2011 4.27
2012 5.09
2013 INJ
2014 4.01
2015 4.43
2016 4.30
Not much of a performance arc, is there. So how has Cleveland gone 17-3 in those 20 starts the last two seasons? It naturally begins with his ERA being better than FIP, but it is still just 3.27 over those that stretch. A relatively average team does not go 17-3 behind that allowance rate, so let’s set some W/L perspective by looking at pitchers the past two seasons closest to that ERA ballpark –
W/L ERA
Jerad Eickhoff 6-11 3.26
Dallas Keuchel 23-16 3.26
Matt Harvey 17-16 3.30
Joe Ross 10-9 3.31
Jason Hammel 17-8 3.31
Combined: 73-60 (54.9%)
Josh Tomlin 15-3 (83.3%)
Tomlin’s personal 15-3 certainly does not fit, does it. So how does it happen? A lot of right place/right time, with Cleveland scoring 5.9 runs behind him across those games. Which then leads to this bizarre comparison, with the other Indians in the rotation -
Runs Per Start, 2015-16
Tomlin 5.9
Carrasco 4.7
Salazar 4.4
Bauer 3.7
Kluber 3.4
Yes, we can slightly tweak the Kluber numbers here, because in being #1 in the rotation he pitched in a lot of games in which The Tribe ran into an opposing ace. Tomlin also gets the benefit of being at the end of the rotation, facing opposing #5’s. But that starts to blend out once a team is deeper into a season. For Cleveland to have performed this well offensively behind Tomlin is an example of Baseball Being Baseball, a player getting either too much credit, or being penalized too much, for something out of his control.
Now it is time to examine that 3.27 ERA, because across that same time frame FIP rates him at 4.37. It is most rare for there to be more than a full run gap between the two measurements over a fair sample. The magic stems from where it often does in that category – BABIP. Tomlin has benefitted from baseball’s geometry to have had more contact find gloves than just about anyone else in the sport.
BABIP leaders, 2015-16
Marco Estrada .209
Chris Young .222
Josh Tomlin .232
So there you have it, right. Tomlin has a specialty skill set that may have him out-performing traditional MLB standards. Except that he doesn’t. Estrada and Young are extreme fly-ball pitchers, and that can enhance BABIP – ground balls find holes in infields for hits, even when the contact was weak; a weak fly-ball will be an out at an overwhelming percentage.
Now the Tomlin particulars – he had never had a BABIP of less than .253 prior to 2015, and in 2014 it was .320. So let’s make some comparisons. His GB% is 39.3, and if we look at the past two seasons how do others in that range stack up?
GB% BABIP
Kyle Kendrick 38.8 .300
Jake Peavy 38.3 .293
Matt Shoemaker 39.0 .301
Mike Fiers 39.3 .293
Josh Tomlin 39.3 .232
Anibal Sanchez 39.5 .287
Drew Hutchison 39.7 .338
Jason Hammel 39.7 .276
Adam Conley 39.8 .309
Once again it does not fit – Tomlin’s BABIP is a clear outlier in that group. Of course, defenses vary, and the case could be made that one needs to look at the defense behind each pitcher for a more true comparison. So let’s do that…
Cleveland BABIP 2015-16
Tomlin .232
Salazar .272
Bauer .280
Bullpen .291
Kluber .293
Carrasco .298
Tomlin is also a clear outlier there. Might he be the single nicest guy in the history of the world, and the Indians play so hard behind him that they score 2.5 more runs per game than when Corey Kluber starts, and also make a shocking number of more defensive plays? Yes, in the movies, but it tends to not be a sporting reality.
What does Tomlin bring to the table? Outstanding control. He sits at a career 1.5 BB/9, and has that down to 1.0 this season. Defenses do play a little better behind control pitchers because their concentration level can remain sharper, the ball being in play more often as there are fewer deep counts, while also being able to anticipate a half step or so based on where the catcher is calling for the pitch, knowing the likelihood of the offering being near that target. But even that does not come close to explaining Tomlin’s good fortune in this category. Let’s look at the top five pitchers in BB/9 over the past two seasons, and their corresponding BABIP –
BB/9 BABIP
Josh Tomlin 1.1 .232
Phil Hughes 1.2 .306
Bartolo Colon 1.3 .303
Clayton Kershaw 1.3 .269
Michael Pineda 1.5 .343
It doesn’t add up there either.
So what is the conclusion? Tomlin still may well be just a journeyman, albeit one with marvelous control. There is a reason why the Indians have him slotted where he is in their rotation, #5 of five, as they continuously see his stuff. What has happened over those 20 starts of the last two seasons shows us what the particular geometry of this sport can allow, and every once in a while randomness runs at length, a well-played pinball shot bouncing across the higher tilt of the machine indefinitely. Will Cleveland continue to score 5.9 per game behind Tomlin? No. Will Tomlin maintain a BABIP near the .232 range long into the future? No. Will the markets possibly get confused if he continues to have success? The answer to that one may be Yes, and it is something to be on the lookout for, although that is not the case this evening, early money flowing to the Mariners.
There is a place that we can go today, to the Bronx in getting behind Ivan Nova, who is eliciting yawns from the betting markets, yet is rather interesting right now…
In the Sights…
Nova’s career ERA is 4.34 and FIP is 4.31. This season those numbers are 4.41 and 4.57, so we could understand folks thinking there is nothing to see here. That allows us to lay as low -121, and take back +160 on a -1.5, with #958 NY Yankees (7:05 Eastern) this evening, and I will split my ticket up about 60/40 between Straight and Run Line.
What there is to like about Nova absolutely includes what happens when he leaves the game – the entire BMC cast is rested and ready for this evening, which means that Nova only needs to take the mound aiming for six innings. That matters for a guy with his limited, but capable, arsenal – he can be who he is, without consideration of pacing. Who he is means throwing strikes, and keeping the ball down in the zone, and when focusing on that he may be bringing more to the table than is being acknowledged -
Nova’s career bests:
2016 Career
BB/9 1.5 2.9
GB% 59.0 50.8
SWS% 9.6 8.2
There may well be something here. And the reason I include SWS% is that while his K/9 has not budged from 2015, a 6.06 this time after a 6.03, he is making batters swing and miss more often than ever before. Nova has been toughened up in his last three outings, facing the Blue Jays twice and the Orioles once, division rivals with quality hitters that know him well, but now he is stepping down in class against an Angels offense that is #20 in OPS, and may not post the optimal lineup tonight, with a long plane ride ahead before beginning a home stand vs. Cleveland on Friday.
Jhoulys Chacin is with his fifth organization over the past two years, and while he can chew up some innings there isn’t a lot of upside (he has been let go by teams that need pitching, which defines the upside issue). The Angel bullpen behind him is #27 in WAR, a major gap between these teams in the latter innings. With the Yankees having dominated this series to a 23-11 tune so far, this price has been dropped into the wrong range.
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