Point Blank – July 21
Can the Redskins balance the Best WRs, but Worst RBs…Might some of that Under trend following the All Star game have just been a fluke…The Psychology of Pitching, Part 200-something, and why the ‘Sights’ are a little blurry in St. Louis this evening…
The Redskin offense is a fascinating case study as the 2016 season approaches – a case can be made that they have the best WR/TE group in the league, and also the weakest corps of RBs. So just how well is that going to fit?
Washington has a ridiculous cast for Kirk Cousins to throw to in DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson out wide, and plenty of depth behind Jordan Reed at TE. It provides so many different ways that a defense can be challenged down the field, and it played a big part in the average skills of Cousins producing a 101.6 Passer Rating in 2015’s run to the playoffs. Cousins entered the season with more interceptions (19) than TD passes (18) across an undistinguished career, but turned that into a 29-11 the other way. The passing game was good enough to rate #6 on the Football Outsiders charts, despite the not getting much help from a running attack was #32.
That naturally becomes the starting point for this season – the offense was #13 on the FO “Weighted Offense”overall despite how bad the ground game was, and there is a chance for the latter to get even worse, with the league’s worst group of RBs as training camp opens. But did that #13 also show us where there might be a wall? Of the 12 offenses ahead of them, none rated lower than #16 in rushing, and eight of them finished in the Top 10. So what happens overall if you are #32 in rushing –
FO “Weighted Offense”
2015 Redskins #13
2014 Raiders #27
2013 Ravens #32
2012 Cardinals #32
2011 Titans #17
2010 Panthers #31
That sets an interesting perspective. While it is indeed a passing league these days, you have to be able to have some semblance of a ground game to make the pass work at anywhere near maximum capacity. The Redskins don’t have that. Losing Alfred Morris was not a big deal; he was only a serviceable “system” guy and had been showing production declines by the season. But Matt Jones may be lesser than Morris, averaging only 3.4 per carry as a rookie, while also having one of the NFL’s highest fumble rates. He is a classic #2 type that not only lacks the explosiveness of a starter, but may also be subject to wearing down in the role.
But what else is there? Chris Thompson is an under-sized guy better as a 3rd-down receiver out of the backfield than someone that could be the #2 runner, and rookie Keith Marshall is a wild card, possessing great speed but having his development hampered by college injuries. As pedestrian as Morris was last year there are 202 carries by him that have to be replaced. Might they come from someone that is going to be cut by another team in August?
As explosive as the Redskins receivers are, they are going to have the ball thrown by an average QB, without a RB that opposing defensive have to respect. One less WR, and one more RB, may have been a much better fit. Does this imbalance lower the ceiling for an offense that may not live up to the sex appeal those explosive receivers indicate should be there?
Item: Wrapping up those Post-All Star Under’s
A lead topic here earlier in the week, and perhaps the most common in the threads, thanks to diligent work by SportsHec (currently leading in the Point Blank MLB MVP race, so the rest of you are looking up in the standings), was once again a dramatic run to the Under’s across the MLB diamonds in the first few games back after the All Star break. But there is a slight problem…
I addressed this phenomenon on Monday noting that the pattern has held up for four seasons, and even tried to work a logic into play – fresher pitchers were throwing the ball harder, a 92.4 average fast-ball velocity before the break elevating to 93.0 the first weekend back, which does provide an added challenge for hitters trying to regain their swings. As logical as that would sound, and with the 93.0 holding up through Tuesday, it may not have entirely played out that way. If we look at the first five days of games, which means going through the starting rotations of each team (22 of the 30; a data-base set by dates will miss Game #5 for 8 teams), here is the breakdown, which was in yesterday’s post-column thread, but deserves a feature placement -
Pre Post
K% 21.0 21.0
BB% 8.2 8.1
HR/FB% 12.9 11.1
LOB% 72.8 75.8
SWS% 10.0 10.1
BABIP .299 .272
ERA 4.23 3.44
FIP 4.20 3.96
xFIP 4.19 4.16
Despite the heavy Under pattern, the sport was not being played all that much differently, except for the major deviation in BABIP. Although pitchers were throwing harder, neither strikeouts nor swings and misses showed a difference. There was some home run repression, which made a little sense, but I don’t have an explanation for BABIP – is there a logic that explains 10 percent fewer balls in play becoming hits? I don’t have one. Yes, fresher legs on defense can make a few more plays, but it does not get anywhere near that extreme.
You can see the impact of that in the ERA/FIP tables, which shows that the BABIP was impacting the scoring by a little more than a half run per game. Were we mostly witnessing a few roles of the dice, instead of the pitchers truly controlling the hitters at a better rate? There is a lot of food for thought here, and it also helps to enforce the notion of why post-mortems are so important – one of the worst things a handicapper can do is carry forward an assumption that may not be correct.
In the Sights, but with blurred vision…
I was expecting to have a delicate decision to make with Padres/Cardinals this morning, Pinnacle sitting on St. Louis at -225 when the Wednesday lights were turned out, and the rest of the marketplace in step. But Thursday’s dawn only registers a -200, which takes the decision out of hand. The process behind it does bring some prime handicapping aspects, which were discussed near the end of the yesterday’s thread, and I believe it is a beneficial exercise to bring them front-and-center…
Item: I wanted to play on Andrew Cashner this evening, but…
Cashner had the chance to bring an off-the-radar opportunity, I thought, except that he did show up on at least someone’s radar (although they could also be anti-Cardinal sentiments, which I will get to in a moment). He was one of several pitchers that showed an invigoration after getting extra time off, a dominating showing against the Giants in which his fastball averaged 95.1, hitting 98 several times, after just 93.9 prior to the break, and his slider was marked at 87.9, after 84.8 previously. Tonight Cashner would be working on six days rest, which means that freshness should be maintained.
But then came this – Padres could trade Cashner before Thursday start – which muddles the picture. Will he have his full concentration? If there is trade talk going on Cashner would likely be pretty close to the info loop, which means the distraction of thinking about getting on a plane, and which contender he could be pitching for as early as Friday or Saturday. Does that get in the way of game-planning for the Cardinals?
There are times in which a player loses energy when he is about to be traded, feeling unwanted by his current team, but that does not apply here – Cashner should be happy, believing that the Padres are instead doing him a favor. And there can also be the positive of knowing that you are wanted by other teams, which might enhance his focus tonight if he views the game as an audition. There was just enough to that for me to still want a San Diego ticket had the early line held up, and if it reappears there are also reasons to not like the Cardinals tonight…
Item: St. Louis may be more vulnerable than the usual Two Dollar chalk
The good news for Adam Wainwright is that he threw a complete-game shutout in his first start back following the break. The bad is that it stretched him out to 120 pitches, which I believe was nonsensical on the part of Mike Matheny. It may backfire this evening.
The Cardinals lead Miami 5-0 in the 9th on Saturday, and logic would have dictated Matheny intentionally going to the bullpen – that kind of lead, on the second night back after the break, is a chance to get work for some guys that had not thrown in a while. Now the problem – not only is Wainwright off of those 120 pitches, but the Heat Index is calling for 102 degrees in St. Louis this evening, a sweltering outing for a pitcher that turns 36 in five weeks. Yet it is a setting in which Wainwright will need to stretch out, the Cardinals having used top set-up man Kevin Siegrist, and current closer Seung Hwan Oh, in both ends of yesterday’s double-header. Yes, they can go back to Trevor Rosenthal, but he has wobbled so badly for so long that neither his confidence, nor their confidence in him, can be very high.
These are the kind of challenges that are out there each day, re-enforcing the notion that there simply are few iron-clad rules in handicapping, and that sometimes you have to pull the trigger with edges lurking in a gray area. For now the markets have taken just enough away for me to not have a Padres ticket, but there may be something showing later, perhaps even a Team Total Over if the price falls into range.
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