Point Blank – July 18
Will Tony Romo be a Hero this season (NFL 2016 begins; can missing playing time prolong a career)…Were the Pitchers as far ahead of the Hitters as the scoreboards indicated…The Phillies are sticking with Aaron Nola (and does that tell the handicapper something)…Steven Matz may be back to being Steven Matz…
I am not sure there could have been a better “welcome back” to the sporting world than the epic duel between Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson at Royal Troon this weekend, Sport taken to a very, very high level. Now after that refresher it is time to get busy across many fronts, and today will mark the beginning of Football 2016, in particular a one-a-day focus on each NFL team, looking for a key issue that will be in play with the marketplace perceptions.
But first let’s set two directions for the thread today, one focusing on tonight’s edges, and another on the long-term arc of Sport. My first thought about how well Stenson and Mickelson played yesterday was to take it back to Game #7 of the 1991 World Series, when John Smoltz and Jack Morris dueled 0-0 late into the Minneapolis night, before the Twins finally beat the Braves 1-0 in 10 innings. I would like to hear thoughts from the rest of you as to the best head-to-head clutch battles in Sports History, and we can keep that discussion going indefinitely. It should be a good one.
Now time to put on the shoulder pads for the first time, and because we have a long read today across multiple topics we will plug the Juke Box in. If a prime notion is that Tony Romo might have a big season ahead, and perhaps more seasons remaining than some perceptions, how about some classic Waylon Jennings to set it up…
Item: Dallas Cowboys 2016 - Might Tony Romo be younger than most folks think
Dallas had the #4 offense in the NFL in 2014, using the Football Outsiders adjusted tables, with Romo having a 113.2 Passer Rating, the best of his career. The Cowboys fell off of a cliff because of injuries last year, most importantly Romo being lost twice, but the talent in the 2016 offensive huddle may be even better than 2014. The NFL’s best OL is now a more experienced and more cohesive unit, and the depth and versatility at RB and WR has been upgraded.
So that brings us to Romo. While there is an obvious question about a QB returning from an injury-riddled season, especially with many across the Sports Mediaverse pointing out his age (he turned 36 in April), might there be a silver lining here? Romo has missed 24 regular-season games over the past five campaigns, the equivalent of 1.5 seasons. While the clock indeed ticks away each day, might all of the wear and tear he has avoided across this stretch have him with more left in the tank than his chronological age indicates?
This is not just the physical issue of having avoided so much contact, and Romo’s right arm having thrown far fewer passes than had he stayed healthy, but also being mentally fresher because there was not the intensity of preparing game plans and sorting details on the practice field each week.
The starting point here is to ignore the 2015 Dallas offensive statistics. Just throw them out from your own trackings, and be prepared for the fact that most stat sources will treat them as having been legit. That is an important fundamental lesson that is also well-placed to go first this season - those 2015 offense evaluations carry no real meaning in terms of measuring this group. And should Romo show an early spark in his step, the time missed across those recent seasons indeed leaving him younger than his birth certificate in terms of “football years”, there is a significant upside here, this offense having the opportunity to be among the league’s best. In true Cowboy fashion, I may be quick to the trigger here.
Item: About those weekend Under’s
There was a lot of discussion across the weekend thread concerning how low the MLB scoring was, a 29-13-3 run to the Under, continuing a pattern that had been developing in recent reasons, with all games the first four days back after the All Star break playing Under at a tick better than 60 percent for the last four seasons. That is enough to stand up and take notice, but before getting too excited heading into July of 2017, it is also likely enough now for the oddsmakers to begin adjusting.
Why would something like this happen, at a sample that is now up to 250 games? There is some speculation that it has to do with the emphasis on strong arms that can push the radar guns into the mid-90’s, which has certainly been an MLB-wide phenomenon – the average fastball velocity has increased in every season since 2010. So the idea is that following the break the pitchers come back with their batteries recharged, and can cut it loose a bit more. There is merit to that, and it was the case this weekend –
Average Fastball Velocity
Full Season: 92.4
Post-Break: 93.0
Across 45 games that will make a difference, especially if the Totals have not been adjusted. But should the difference have been this extreme -
MLB 2016 Slash Line
Full Season: .256/.322/.418
Post-Break: .227/.296/.361
That increase in mph is not supposed to correlate that dramatically. What helps to explain the major drop are some of baseball’s randomness in play –
BABIP LOB%
Full Season: .298 72.9
Post-Break: .267 75.3
And there are the magic bullets. Much of the low scoring was Baseball Being Baseball for a few days, significantly more contact finding its way into fielder’s gloves than usual, and slightly more runners being left on base. But it was not all fortune; it was also a case of weaker contact, something that faster pitches can bring. I am not a huge fan of the “Quality of Contact” tables because they rely too much on human judgment, but in this instance the difference is worth looking at (numbers are percentages) –
Soft Med Hard
Full Season: 18.8 49.9 31.3
Post-Break: 19.3 51.0 29.7
The differences are subtle, but because of that can be believed – the hitters did not square the ball up as well this weekend. And one stat that we can trust absolutely bears this out –
HR/FB Rate
Full Season: 12.8
Post-Break: 9.7
That is real. Yes, it is a small sample, but in this case a meaningful one – the quality of contact being made was indeed down.
What does it all mean? In the immediate future scoring should return to normal, as the pitchers lose that jolt which freshness brought. For the long-term one might anticipate the first few days after the Break to continue to favor the pitchers; the question will be how much the markets adjust.
Now time to zero in on a couple of young moundsmen that take the hill tonight…
Item: Aaron Nola will be fine (as long as he believes he will be fine)
Philadelphia’s Nola goes under the microscope this evening. He is regarded as one of the best prospects in the sport, yet limped into the All Star break with a 5-8/4.69, with his last five outings producing a horrific 0-4/13.50.
Now back off for a minute. Though 96 innings Nola has a K/9 of 9.9 and a GB% of 55.1. How many pitchers are averaging better than a strikeout-per-inning, and a GB% of 55.0 or higher? Nola is alone. Only Jake Arrieta and Noah Syndergaard are above a K-per-inning and 50.0 GB%, with Clayton Kershaw just a tick below in the latter. Combine that with good control, a 2.2 BB/9, and it is no surprise the advanced metrics like what they see –
ERA FIP xFIP SIERA
4.69 3.18 2.95 3.17
The culprits are easy to spot, with a couple of categories subject to randomness playing a major role –
BABIP LOB%
MLB .298 72.9
Nola .331 60.0
Of 97 qualifying pitchers at the All Star break, Nola is dead last in LOB% and #89 in BABIP. That screams for regression, right? It should, except that the recent horrific results can also get into a young pitcher’s head. I believe that was happening during the cycle, the combination of those two factors meaning a lot of runners on base, and Nola not having the maturity yet to make good pitches under that duress. Those last five starts brought one of the most startling BABIP stretches you are going to see –
June 11 Nationals .467
June 16 Blue Jays .600
June 21 Twins .467
June 26 Giants .667
July 2 Royals .385
Even if someone is making good pitches, that success rate is going to have them doubting themselves, and you could see some of that hesitation from Nola on the mound. The Phillies chose to not send him down to AAA to correct any flaws, largely because there isn’t anything mechanical to correct. Instead it becomes a case of a pitcher believing in himself, and making better pitches when there are runners on base. As such he will be watched closely tonight, with a layoff of more than two full weeks perhaps what he needed mentally. Should Nola show that his head is in the right place, I will be quick to buy in.
Item: Steven Matz may be Steven Matz tonight
Matz has been under the microscope in recent outings, focusing on how much he altered his repertoire in the first game after it was confirmed that he was pitching with bone spurs. That has changed, however, with each ensuing start getting him back closer to the pitcher he has been –
Slider% Changeup%
Cubs 3.9 22.1
Marlins 7.0 19.0
Nationals 9.0 13.0
Matz was tentative against Chicago at CitiField, rarely going to one of MLB’s best sliders, and throwing far more changeups than usual. Those rates have gone back to normal since, which may be an indication that he has the confidence that he can pitch through the injury. Now with a little added rest, from a style standpoint he should be considered the guy that he always has been, with that earlier performance vs. the Cubs merely an outlier.
In the Sights, Monday MLB…
I do not believe there is anything special about Nick Tropeano, and there is not much good to say about the Angels bullpen. Yet the Full Game Under money that has been trickling in for tonight’s matchup in Anaheim has now brought #917 Texas Team Total Over (10:05 Eastern) into range, with 4 available at -110. That makes it go time.
Tropeano’s 3-2/3.12 helps to set up the price point but you do not have to attach much weight to the run allowance – FIP reads at 4.73, xFIP 4.83 and SIERA 4.49, all of which come closer to measuring his true abilities. Tropeano is allowing too many fly-balls (of the 136 starters at 65 innings or more, only Ian Kennedy, Drew Smyly and Jered Weaver have a lower GB%), and too many walks (4.1 BB/9), for his run prevention to hold up, with that 90.8 LOB% among MLB’s top candidates for regression (there is no one else above 86.9).
Meanwhile the LAA bullpen is #28 in WAR and I am not even sure Mike Scioscia knows who his closer will be – Huston Street has only faced four batters in 12 days, without getting an appearance over the weekend. It is difficult to imagine the Rangers being held to three runs or less on a night in which they should make plenty of contact.
Chicago Cubs 200 Prop (through July 17): 26
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