Point Blank – March 26
Peering Behind the Elite 8-Ball…There is lemonade to be made in Oklahoma City tonight…
And now the NCAA field is down to eight, a pair of competitively-priced Saturday games between relative strangers, and then Sunday’s ACC invitational. So let’s follow the path set for the Sweet 16 , and look at some of those “Game Inside the Game” matchups that will be the key to deciding the scoreboard outcomes, before heading off to the NBA hardwoods for a rather unique opportunity…
VILLANOVA/KANSAS – If the Wildcats keep scoring, they will have earned it
Gosh the Villanova offense has been good in this tournament. The Wildcats rang up 86, 87 and 92 on the scoreboard, and as you would expect the major statistical categories back it up. They have shot 59.9 percent, making a rather remarkable 33-62 from 3-point range, and it has been 38-47 at the FT line. Of their 97 made shots, 61 have come from an assist.
It isn’t just one player. Of the eight in the rotation, only Phil Booth is shooting less than 52.6 percent, and Daniel Ochefu (68.0), Kris Jenkins (66.7), Ryan Arcidiacano (65.4), Mikal Bridges (60.0) abd Darryl Reynolds (60.0) are all at 60 percent or better. Just great stuff. But now come the obvious questions – when a team shoots so often from the perimeter how long can that be maintained? And when Kansas is defending you, how much do things change?
The Jayhawks rated #4 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, and it is easy to believe those numbers – look at how many offenses they faced that finished among the Top 15 in the nation:
#1 – Michigan State
#3 – Iowa State (twice)
#4 – Kentucky
#13 – Baylor (twice)
#14 – Oklahoma (twice)
For perspective, Villanova currently sits at #2 on those charts, and while the Wildcats ball movement and balance has taken apart their tourney opponents so far, just how good were they on the defensive end (ignoring UNC-Asheville, for the obvious reasons)?
#40 – Iowa
#51 - Miami
In both the Round of 32, and the Sweet 16, Jay Wright’s team was up against a defense of lesser rank that would have been expected for those stages. While Kansas was played eight games against Top 15 offenses, Villanova played only one team that rated in the Top 15 in defense, Seton Hall, the Wildcats going 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS across those three meetings.
OKLAHOMA/OREGON – Is this as good for Buddy Hield as it looks?
Oregon has earned a spot on the Elite Eight stage by playing tremendous team basketball, as noted in Wednesday’s column that seven-player rotation being filled with such interchangeable parts that one would think Dana Altman was rotating 10 or 11 Ducks. There has only been one flaw in that arsenal, but it just happens to be perhaps the most ominous there could be for this matchup – they have not guarded the 3-point line well.
Oregon has allowed 35.7 percent beyond the arc, rating #237 in the nation. That is a dangerous weakness to have against Oklahoma, which was #2 in the land at knocking down 42.6 from beyond the arc, and not only making a high percentage of those shots, but also doing it through saturation – the Sooners were #14 in the nation in getting 38.8 percent of their points from that territory. For the Oregon defense, the matchup gets exacerbated because of only one practice day in which to prepare, although there might be a slight silver lining to that.
Altman got his first college coaching job when Lon Kruger hired him as an assistant at Kansas State back in 1986, and the two have remained friends, with a golf trip to Scotland schedule for this summer. Because of that friendship, and the fact that the Sooners made their way in front of the cameras, Altman knows what they bring - “I did see them play more often, but I don’t think it is going to give us any advantage. They’re not a hard team to scout. They play hard, they spread the floor, they’re going to shoot threes. It’s just a matter of trying to slow them down.”
Of course everything that Altman saw had to be conveyed to his team over the course of a single practice session. Can they come up with a solution for that defensive flaw?
NOTRE DAME/NORTH CAROLINA – What can Notre Dame do if Marcus Paige is making shots?
Paige has been a common topic here over the course of the season, beginning with the take - It is time to buy North Carolina futures back in mid-January. The notion was that the Tar Heels were winning despite Paige having missed time, and then shooting poorly after he returned, and if they could do that through his struggles it meant a lot of upside. Except that Paige never really did find his shooting stroke, going 37-130 from 3-point range against ACC competition, and the upside for the rest of the team truly showed in their 61-57 win over Virginia in the ACC title game, when Paige was 0-7 from long range.
In North Carolina’s 101-86 explosion vs. Indiana on Friday it was a much different Paige – he knocked down 6-9 beyond the arc, and was confident and aggressive with his shot. That has to scare the hell out of Mike Brey, because his Fighting Irish do not have the size and athleticism to both compete inside against the Carolina front line, and guard the perimeter. It has not been an uncommon problem – the Fighting Irish are just #154 in defensive efficiency for the full season, #270 at clearing the defensive boards, and #295 in allowing the opposition to shoot 37.0 percent from 3-point range.
Across 21 ACC games Paige only shot better than 50 percent beyond the arc three times. He did it in an early win at Florida State, then the other two just happened to be the matchups vs. Notre Dame, games in which he went 9-15. In other words, even when he was misfiring, he found this defense to his liking.
Notre Dame managed to win 80-76 at South Bend anyway, overcoming a double-figure deficit in the second half, but it is not easy to rely on that result – it was an unlikely flow in which the Fighting Irish were 31-38 from the FT line. Nor is the 78-47 rout by Carolina in the ACC demi-finals a true barometer – the Fighting Irish brought dead legs after chasing down Duke to win in overtime the previous day, and got drilled 46-26 on the boards. But if the Irish could not get out to Paige then, when he was lacking confidence in his strike, it becomes an even tougher matchup now.
SYRACUSE/VIRGINIA – Will the Cavaliers take better care of the ball than Gonzaga (it is not an automatic assumption)?
Gonzaga was a miss for the pocket on Friday, the Bulldogs failing to close a Money Line parlay with Virginia despite having some of the expected matchup advantages – Domantas Sabonis was indeed able to work inside of Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone, with 19 points and 17 rebounds, seven of the latter from the offensive glass. But there was an aspect of that zone they did not handle – 15 turnovers, including four apiece from starting guards Kyle Dranganis and Eric McClellan, who combined for more turnovers than points, and in particular those turnovers were damaging as they got closed out 15-3 over the final 6:20, the offensive not making a FG through that stretch
That is something that the Orange can do, especially vs. a team on the first look, the zone being so non-traditional in its deployment, especially in terms of getting into the passing lanes – they were #45 in the nation in percentage of turnovers forced per possession. But this will not be the first look for Virginia, and that becomes a key handicapping factor in this matchup.
There have been three Boeheim vs. Tony Bennett chess matches since Syracuse joined the ACC, the Cavaliers going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, winning the scoreboards by 39 points, including an earlier 73-65 UVA win at Charlottesville as -10 this season, when the Cavaliers had 18 assists vs. that zone and scored at a 117.8 PP100. But look at the result carefully – they also had 13 turnovers.
Virginia also had what would seem like pretty good control of the proceedings last March in a 59-47 win at the Carrier Dome, but in that one the Cavaliers committed a season-high 19 turnovers. Guards London Perrantes and Malcolm Brogdon each have over 100 career floor minutes vs. Syracuse, while Anthony Gill has 83, Mike Tobey 53 and Devon Hall 39. There may be an assumption that based on the scoreboard results vs. the Orange, and the fact that this cast has been involved through much of that stretch, they would be adept at doing what a Bennett team does best – taking care of the ball. Yet they have struggled against that athleticism in the passing lanes.
Of course, even with 32 turnovers in the last two meetings they have won in double figures each time anyway, which indeed says something about the rest of the matchup.
In the Sights, NBA…
The oddsmakers and betting markets were thrown quite a curveball for what might ordinarily have been a showdown in Oklahoma City tonight, and I believe they have swung and missed. That opens the door for #514 Thunder/Spurs Over (8:05 Eastern), with the current 204 short for a game that could have a loose flow throughout.
The challenge on that one stems from the fact that Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli will not play for San Antonio, with the Side adjusted more than 10 full points for those absences. But the Total closed at 211.5 between these base lineups just two weeks ago, and while the game itself was a dead Under, it was the perceived market rate at tipoff that brings the key comparison here.
I have no concerns about the Oklahoma City offense – this will only be the third game in seven days on this homestand, so the energy should be excellent. I also believe that vaunted Spurs defense will only be a shell of itself, and you could already see how disjointed the rotations were without Leonard last night, when short-handed Memphis scored 104 points and shot 53.0 percent. But while that defense will struggle, Gregg Popovich still has a lot of guys that can score, with Kevin Martin now getting more minutes, and both Danny Green and Patty Mills fresh after sitting out on Friday. Pops may actually relish the challenge of trying to win this one even with a shortened rotation, and this time his best chance to win is by attacking on offense with some guys that can spread the floor and score. As for defense, it just is not going to work tonight on that end of the court.
The complete Point Blank Archive
U.S. Election 2016: The Perils of Polls
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)