Point Blank – March 23
Sweet 16 – Thursday’s Sugar Cubes…Palmtree is looking for another “Beautiful Loser” on the MLB Diamonds (a nice cheap excuse for some vintage Bob Seger)…Oracle Arena is a brutal place to be if you can’t play defense…
As the NCAA brackets get reduced to the final 16 teams the handicapping options are reduced as well – the notion of “value” altered a bit because most sharp power ratings are going to find precious few edges against these lines. Now the teams are out to 35+ games, and the oddsmakers not only know both the players and coaches well, but have also been given a chance to follow the patterns of the betting markets for nearly five months as well. Yet there are still major opportunities out there, and that is how I will frame things the next two days.
For me it comes down to matchups now, those “game inside the game” storylines that will determine how the game flows play out, and create edges against what appear to be sharp lines. So beginning today with the Thursday matchups I will play to the Sweet 16 theme by offering some sugar cubes, an item for each game that I consider to be of crucial importance in creating the final scoreboard.
Some of these cubes are going to be questions, without necessarily bringing the answer. Others are not enough to stand alone as being enough to overcome 11-10, but can be a nice sweetener if you see some other components available to brew a nice cup of tea. More than anything this should be considered the kind of exercise you can begin taking for cycles like this, in terms of looking for edges when the markets are in close agreement as to what the relative strengths of the teams are.
Since today also brings us a fast-ball from Eric Strasser on the MLB Diamonds as well, some musical background can help you sort through, and his particular pitch provides the ideal connection, the opportunity for some classic Bob Seger and the Silver Bullet Band and “Beauitful Loser”, which is exactly what Eric is looking for. I thought the best versions were the way that Seger flowed “Travellin’ Man” right into that song in live shows, and here is a gem from Cobo Hall in Detroit back in 1980 -
Now let the handicapping processes begin…
MARYLAND/KANSAS: Can Melo Trimble get fresh?
One of the reasons why Kansas has made it to the top of the polls, and my current power ratings, is that the Jayhawks give little away – to beat them you literally have to beat them, because they just do not give anything away. I have noted a few times how this team developed chemistry and confidence in the off-season, winning the World University games in South Korea last summer, an event the U.S. had not grabbed the Gold Medal in since 2005.
Consider this balance – four players have over 400 points; three have over 150 rebounds; three have over 90 assists; four have over 20 blocked shots; four have over 20 steals. And a different Jayhawk leads the team in all five categories. Yet Maryland would seem to possess the front-line talent, in particular the likes of Rasheed Sulaimon and floor leader Melo Trimble. The question is how much Trimble has in the tank.
In the early part of the season I would have rated Trimble not only one of the best point guards in the nation, but one of the best end-game players, the kind of guy you want with control of the ball down the stretch. But without a lot of depth at the position Mark Turgeon has had to ride his horse, and there has not been much closing kick as the season enters the home stretch. If we throw out what was essentially a scrimmage vs. Bowie on February 9, when Trimble only played 17 minutes anyway, ove the last 11 games a player that is one of the nation’s best at his position has only made 45-142 shots, including a dismal 15-59 from 3-point range. While some may view those first two tourney wins as Trimble and the team getting back on track, he was only 1-10 beyond the arc, and has as many turnovers (5) as assists.
Maryland’s turnaround time is not great here, having to travel back from Spokane, and then over to Louisville. Is it enough for Trimble to get fresh again, or does that late-season fatigue remain a factor?
MIAMI/VILLANOVA: Can Angel Rodriguez and the Hurricanes create offense vs. pressure?
Villanova exorcised a few demons from poor performances in past tournaments by using tremendous ball pressure on defense to break each of the first two games wide open early, the First Half vs. Iowa arguably the best basketball any team has played in these brackets so far. You may also think that you have the answer to this one – didn’t Angel Rodriguez have a big game as Miami withstood Wichita State’s dynamic defense, one that was even better than Villanova in terms of disrupting the opposition? But the answer is not that easy.
Rodriguez made some big time shots against the Shockers, especially that late runner that was the single-biggest moment in the game, and he finished with 28 points on 9-11 from the field, including 3-4 beyond the arc. But he also turned the ball over seven times, and as a team Miami posted the ugly count of 16 turnovers vs. only seven assists. Two games prior to that, in losing an ACC semi-final matchup vs. a Virginia defense that is also tenacious in the half-court, it was that exact count again – 16 turnovers vs. seven assists, and once again Rodriguez had a negative individual ratio in that category.
Yes, Miami has beaten Virginia 64-61 at home two weeks earlier, but check those charts – Rodriguez had three turnovers, and only one assist. Those shots he made against Wichita State were huge, but several of them could also be classified as bail-outs because the offense did not generate a good look at the basket. Also be aware of something that you may hear others slip up on as they analyze this one – many will credit Miami’s run to the NIT finals last March as being something that helped to develop the chemistry for this season, but note that Rodriguez only played nine minutes in that tournament, getting injured in the opener. Does he have the talent to make plays against the Wildcats defense? Yes. But does he have the poise?
DUKE/OREGON: The fine print, on the Oregon depth
I had dropped an early hint of a preference for Oregon in in this space earlier in the week, though the markets have not cooperated in keeping the price low, but there was a key to that notion that many across the Sports Mediaverse are not analyzing properly as I hear the punditry offer their views. It is no secret that a lack of depth has been a major negative for Duke this season, yet many are claiming that it is something Mike Krzyzewski and the Blue Devils can overcome here, because Oregon only uses a seven-player rotation. Be careful with that.
Yes, the Ducks only play seven in most games, but you would have no idea of that from the game video – it is an aggressive team on both ends of the court, one that seemingly never backs off of the throttle. How can that happen with a short rotation? It can happen when it might be one of the most interchangeable groups of seven you will ever find. Let’s look at the minute distributions –
Brooks Dillon 32.8
Elgin Cook 31.6
Tyler Dorsey 29.9
Casey Benson 28.6
Chris Boucher 25.9
Dwayne Benjamin 22.3
Jordan Bell 20.7
The reason fatigue has not shown is that no individual player has to carry that much of a load, and Dana Altman can exchange the parts without much alteration in the game plan. It is an unselfish group that shares the ball well, and by keeping the rotation tight they have learned to play outstanding team defense. The Ducks may not look deep on paper, but on the court it is another matter entirely.
TEXAS A&M/OKLAHOMA: Is it really Seniors vs. Seniors?
Much like someone could believe that the depth factors are similar for Oregon/Duke, which is not true, you will hear or read of many calling Oklahoma/Texas A&M a battle of seniors, two teams bringing a lot of experience to the table. That also may not be entirely true.
Oklahoma not only has a coach in Lon Kruger that will be making a fifth Sweet 16 appearance, but those four seniors in the starting lineup, Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins, Jordan Woodard and Ryan Spangler, were at the Sweet 16 last March, a 62-58 loss to Michigan State in this round, and it is the fourth NCAA dance for Cousins and Hield.
Texas A&M is going to counter with four senior starters, but it is hardly the same. Three of those seniors are transfers, Danuel House and Jalen Jones only having two seasons with the team, and Anthony Collins just one. Prior to this season no one on this roster had ever played an NCAA tourney minute, including the transfers at their other programs, and for the first 39 minutes vs. Northern Iowa on Sunday they looked like a team that had not been there before. Was that remarkable rally enough to get the Aggies over the hump in terms of tourney confidence? Or is that better read as the perils of lacking experience for these settings, despite having so many seniors?
Item: As First Pitch approaches…
And now for some more MLB that you can put into your pockets, courtesy of all-around good guy Eric Strasser, better known as “Palmtree” around these parts, and author of Betting Baseball for Profit. Today it really is about looking for that “Beautiful Loser”…
Any MLB Pitcher over 17 losses -110
This is my favorite season-long bet, and I’ve made it every year since 2006. For one key reason - it’s never lost. As a matter of fact, going back to 1999 a major-league pitcher has lost at least 17 games every single season. Despite that fact, the sports books continue to post it every season at a reasonable price. William Hill in Las Vegas even posted it at 16.5 -135 earlier this month.
The logic behind the wager makes sense. Every year you will have a number of teams pile up losses early and by September they’re just trying to get to the finish line. They don’t want to abuse their young pitchers who might have a future with them either by having them throw too many innings, or get abused in front of the bad defense and a team playing with no passion. So they take a veteran like an Aaron Harang or an Edwin Jackson and throw them out there every 5 days to eat innings, and absorb the punishment.
In 2015 this bet was a push with Shelby Miller losing 17. In 2014 three different pitchers lost 17 games, and AJ Burnett (in a dreadful season with the Phillies) lost 18. I think this wager is even stronger this year than in most seasons, as there are five teams with win totals of 71 or under. The leagues are split more than ever between the haves and have-nots, and that should give us several opportunities with teams and pitchers playing out the string in September.
About Last Night…
With Kobe Bryant slated to make his final appearance in Phoenix tonight, it is time to update just how striking the changes in the Laker game flow has been when he has played – since December 19 it has been 19-11-1 to the Over when he is on the court, and 13-0 to the Under when watching in street clothes (albeit nicely tailored stuff). Bryant has not played on back-to-back nights in over two months, but did have a little spring in his legs last night, scoring 20 points in 30:20 in that 107-100 win over Memphis. Of course, there was the requisite ratio of 18 shots taken vs. only one assist, which is part of what has led to those Totals tallies.
In the Sights…
Sometimes the formula is simple – I believe that the Warriors bring a proper mind-set this evening, and the fragile Clippers do not show any ability to guard a quality opponent, nor even a bad one right now. That makes #772 Golden State Team Total Over (10:35 Eastern) the path to explore, with 117.5 the going rate.
The absolute awfulness of the current LAC defensive configurations were noted in the Monday column and in their recent step-up games against the Thunder, Spurs and Cavaliers they allowed an unholy 120.6 PP100. This is a tired team right now, one that has had to play with too much energy in order to win without Blake Griffin, and I do not see this as being a point of rejuvenation. For Golden State it may well be, a chance to play at home after disappointing road outings at San Antonio and Minnesota, and in particular for Steph Curry, who shot 10-35 across those games, including 3-21 from 3-point range. Now he and the rest of the gang settle in for a stretch of nine out of 10 at Oracle Arena, and I never mind backing a good team off of a win in which they feel like they actually “lost”, which was the case against the Timberwolves.
So why the focus on the Team Total? Because without Andre Iguodala, and Festus Ezili, and likely no Andrew Bogut, the depth to get a margin is a question mark, and it does alter the defensive rotations a bit. But it is also the opportunity to spread the floor even more on offense and push the pace, and that should lead to some explosive stretches against that disheveled Clippers defense - consider that starting Draymond Green at center reduces DeAndre Jordan from being one of the league’s best defenders at this position to an actual liability when he has to vacate the post area.
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