Point Blank – November 12
Bills/Jets and the Infirmary Report (farewell, Allen Toussaint)…There’s No Place Like Home, as you prep for a busy hoops Friday…The Rockets got buried on the boards…Some “Tech”nical aspects point the way to a Thursday night Under…
Tonight’s Bills/Jets game has been one of anticipation since the schedule was first released, the NFL craftily putting Rex Ryan’s return to New York in prime time. And on cue, Ryan could not help but add to the drama by naming Ik Enemkpali as one of the co-captains for tonight (which actually does next-to-nothing from a football standpoint, something Rex often fails to realize). But this one brings some added handicapping dynamics because of how many of the key New York cogs are wounded, something that a short week magnifies, and that means time to check the medical reports as a primary focus.
During the daily basketball grind last winter I had proposed using various versions of “St. James Infirmary” as background while sorting through games in which injuries were going to be a major factor, since there are so many classic versions that have been done across many genres. That list has now been permanently reduced to one, and while there is a bittersweet element to it, there are times in which life is best appreciated that way. Allen Toussaint passed away in Madrid earlier this week, and the tune just happened to be on his set list the previous evening. He went out in style, as it should have been, so as we sift through the Jet issues, let a master remind us of how well it can be done -
As noted in Tuesday's NFL review, the Jets did a few big things right vs. Jacksonville on Sunday, coming up with six sacks and four takeaways, which negated doing a lot of little things wrong in a lackluster win. Several of those problems were injury-riddled, and some of those injuries are still in play.
The New York pass defense is among the NFL’s best when healthy, but there are key pieces missing tonight. With Calvin Pryor and Dion Bailey both out, on top of losing Antonio Allen back in August, it will be Rontez Miles at safety, making his first start, and only third career appearance. There is not another safety on the roster yet, although Ronald Martin will probably get activated off of the practice squad today. Antonio Cromartie has been struggling at CB lately, some of that due to a strained quadriceps that will probably keep him out, or at least limit him if he does play, his recovery impacted by the short week. That puts Buster Skrine into a starter’s role, but he is playing through a shoulder injury, and it makes Marcus Williams the nickel back. Dee Milliner has been activated, but he has not played in over a year, and may not be ready for game action yet.
Then there is the OL and the ground game, one that looked so strong a month ago, until Chris Ivory got dinged up, and while playing through a tight hamstring, it has been the shockingly low count of just 84 yards on 55 carries over the past three games. Ivory ran it 23 times for just 26 vs. Jacksonville, the lowest total ever for a back with that many carries. Much of that can be attributed to Willie Colon being out and Nick Mangold trying to play through pain, and that is the same formula up front tonight – Colon has been placed on injured reserve so his season is over, while a short week will have Mangold gutting it out, but nowhere near full strength. Perhaps the same can be said about Ivory, as well as QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who may have surgery on his thumb tomorrow, and WR Brandon Marshall not running at 100 percent. And while it does not look like much of a breeze in East Rutherford tonight, if it does pick up that can impact kicker Randy Bullock, brought in this week to replace the injured Nick Folk.
That certainly does impact the way that this game gets approached. At another time I would have liked the matchup of Todd Bowles against Tyrod Taylor, Taylor having been sacked on 10.2 percent of his drop-backs, a count that tells you much about his ability to read defenses – just think of how many potential sacks he has escaped from via his mobility. Among current starters, only Russell Wilson has been sacked at a higher rate. But that is a lesser factor now, the injuries in the New York secondary limiting the number of blitzes that Bowles can dial up.
Is there somewhere you can go with this one? For some of you, yes – that sometimes dubious “Teaser” word comes into play. I do not see the Jets being healthy enough to be able to win this game easily, which puts the Bills into a favorable category, the short dog with a low Total crossing through the 3/7 plateaus. There would be nothing wrong with taking a small flyer or two on Buffalo in that category, with St. Louis and New England as the best options for the second leg of the ticket.
A prelude to NCAA Dribbling for Dollar$
OK, you have finally taken a look at the schedule rotation for Friday’s college basketball, and realized that you are way behind. Do not feel alone, I have heard that lament from many this week. That season simply starts too early, and this time around there is an explosion of lined games out of the starter’s gate. Tomorrow the focus will be on some general strategies for early in the season, and also notions of how the new rules in effect will impact play, but for now it will be an attempt to help narrow that Friday board a bit, and give you some places to look.
One of the subtle keys around this time of the calendar each year is to look for basketball home teams on a Friday night that also have their football team at home the following day. When this happens it often becomes a two-in-two for the students and alumni to attend each, and not only does that mean a better basketball crowd than usual for what are almost exclusively non-conference affairs, but it creates a secondary incentive for the players and the coaches of the home team to show well – this is an audition to get many of those fans to come back for future games. Because of the major roster shifts in this day and age, it is the first time for many of these players in front of their home fans, and in particular these are big settings for first year coaches.
Now comes the problem for this Friday – there are a zillion such games. Your bankroll will not enable you to bet them all, and some will not bring edges anyway. Some teams on this list are a long way from being season-ready (South Florida); there are veteran coaches like Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski that will not feel any particular pressure to win big, although it may be a little different for Rick Pitino given the current off-court issues; and a few of these settings are actually pretty big games for the road teams as well (like U.A.B. at Auburn). So here is the list for this Friday, one that will have some prime opportunities, but it does require the proper sorting through to ascertain the best value spots -
#726 Michigan State
#752 Auburn
#758 South Florida
#764 Arizona
#772 San Diego State
# 776 California
# 788 Hawaii
# 790 Indiana
#794 Cincinnati
#800 Duke
#810 Louisville
#818 Arizona State (Bobby Hurley’s debut)
#826 Mississippi State (Starkville could be jumping; it is Alabama football weekend)
#828 Vanderbilt
#832 Missouri* (* - the football game is 125 miles away in Kansas City)
#850 UCLA
#852 West Virginia
#854 Navy
Meanwhile #756 USC may have a particularly small crowd – the Trojans tip off at 5:00 PM Pacific, just one hour before the football team takes on Colorado on ESPN2. The Galen Center will not be rocking for that one.
About Last Night…
When you see the Rockets lose outright as a double-digit home favorite to formerly winless Brooklyn, it is a surprise but not a shock – a team referred to as “lame-brained” in yesterday’s thread is capable of beating anyone, or losing to anyone, because of both their high skill level and their limited attention span. But here is where the Wednesday result was really interesting – the Rockets moved the ball well, with three players scoring at least 20 points, and had 25 assists vs. only seven turnovers. They are not supposed to lose on a night in which that happens, especially vs. that class of competition. But they were pummeled 60-45 on the boards, allowing 20 offensive rebounds, which turned into 33 second-chance points, and are now only #22 in rebound rate for the young season.
The culprit may well be the lineup that Kevin McHale is starting, one that is under-sized at forward in the Trevor Ariza/Marcus Thornton tandem, those two only finding their way to five caroms over a combined 67:17 of court time. It was no fault of Dwight Howard, who had 20 points, 17 rebounds and five blocked shots over his 37:14, but McHale might need a more natural #4 in the mix, perhaps Terrance Jones starting again, since the timetable for the return of Donatas Motiejunas has still not been set.
In the Sights…
While many bruised and battered defenses get first worn down, and then out, at this time of the season, that is not the case in the battle of the Tech’s in the ACC tonight. These teams know each other’s schemes inside-out, and both also come off of bye weeks, so that means fresh bodies and the proper tactics, which equates to #112 Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech Under at the fair price that is available (52 or better is a fit).
This will be the 8th meeting between the programs since Paul Johnson took over at Georgia Tech, all vs. the Frank Beamer HC/Bud Foster DC combination, and the Hokies have handled the Yellow Jacket option as well as anyone – GT has averaged 20.9 points per game in this matchup, as opposed to 31.3 vs. all other ACC opponents in that time frame. It should not be any different tonight, especially with the Yellow Jackets struggling through injuries at RB this season, and starting a pair of freshmen, Trey Klock and Will Bryan, at OT, the third start for Klock, and first for Bryan.
But GT will also make stops. The Virginia Tech offense is better with a healthy Michael Brewer at QB, but still nothing special – keep in mind that the 45-43 loss to Duke two games back was only 24-24 at the end of regulation, and that the offense managed only one TD in that 26-10 win at Boston College in the last outing, that coming on a drive of only 47 yards. With both the pace and the offensive efficiency low here, there is enough room to maneuver under the market projection.
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