Point Blank – April 14
The NBA had an absurdly silly night, in so many ways…Considering the Carrasco Carryover (those brilliant numbers may not be a “stretch”)…
There have been several takes here since the All Star break about the “Popification” of playing rotations among the NBA playoff teams, and how Gregg Popovich’s successful routine of resting his older players to keep them fresh has now spread across the league. That can be extremely hazardous for many in the betting markets, naturally in terms of trying to keep up with the information flow each day, so that the lineups and intent of a HC for any given game can be anticipated, but also in terms of how the results get graded. Some of them are not worth grading at all, which became a discussion posting with RJ Bell and Teddy Covers on Pregame’s First Preview radio show on Monday -
But that was before last night, a night for the ages in which the silliness of the 2014-15 season reached a new level. If you did not pay close attention, you were better off, and for those that track stats and make daily power ratings adjustments, throwing the entire night out, instead of picking and choosing among the games, would be savvy. So here we go, with just a few morsels from those proceedings –
Item: Must Win means Must Win, not Must Kill…
This was also talked about on yesterday’s radio show, and will be written here ad nauseum in the future. But somehow there are still those that do not pay attention to the concept – just because a team needs to win a game it does not mean that they are going after a margin. On Monday, many in the marketplace ignored this, making substantial contributions to the Bookmakers Benevolence Association –
Open Close ATS
Houston -9.5 -12 L
New Orleans -11 -14.5 L
Ok City -7 -8 W
LA Clippers -15 -18 L
Those were the four favorites playing with significant need on Monday. They drew heavy action, except for the Thunder, who happened to be the one team that did not take on much play. The other three teams accomplished what they set out to do – they won their games. Had you bet them, your mission was not achieved.
On tonight’s board the Clippers and Pacers need to win. Just win. For Doc Rivers getting the lead and grinding it out is all that matters, after having to extend Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan all to 35:50 or more last night. And for Indy it is actually “must win twice”, with Wednesday’s game at Memphis also going to matter. Do not get caught in the tidal pool that drowned a lot of bettors on Monday, calling for these teams to do something that they themselves are not necessarily aiming for.
Item: Atlanta’s best players were on the court vs. New York
The first instinct on seeing Knicks 112 Hawks 108 might be to run it through the shredder, with Mike Budenholzer sitting out his starting lineup again. Except he didn’t. Paul Millsap was a DNP, but Al Horford, DeMarre Carroll, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver all played 33:00 or more. The Atlanta defense allowed the league’s worst team to dish out 33 assists. I do not know how there can be a positive takeaway from that. Budenholzer learned about late-season rotations as an assistant under Popovich, but this is his first time managing this particular group through such a cycle, and there have been a series of hiccups of late, one in particular that was discussed here. Has a terrific chemistry been thrown off track?
Item: The Dallas/Utah box score
Take a quick glance at those starting lineups, then determine what possible relevance that game result and statistics have in any kind of handicapping universe.
Item: Klay Thompson almost out-scored Memphis in the first half
Thompson had 37, the Grizzlies 46, with a chance at the outright coup by Thompson negated because he only played 19 of the 24 floor minutes. On a per-minute basis over that first half, he scored 1.95, vs. 1.92 for the Memphis team. But if you happened to bet the Warriors, that elation did not last…
Item: Golden State 93-61 (0:47 in 3rd Quarter), GS 111-107 final
If you had the Warriors, you made a good handicap. After a sloppy win over Minnesota they came out hard and with a sense of purpose, and as could have been expected, David Joerger waved a white flag once his team fell behind, not forcing Jeff Green or Marc Gasol to play much through their injuries. But then the fourth quarter happened, a circus in which the ends of the benches got playing time in what became a most unexpected ATS turnaround. Want to have some fun with +/-?
Minutes +/-
Russ Smith 10:16 +25
Jon Leuer 8:49 +21
Jarnell Stokes 8:49 +21
Yes, it happened. Yes, it goes into the official NBA statistics. No, it does not mean a damn thing.
In the Sights (for today, and on-going)…
One of the most difficult grades to issue when the 2014 MLB season was over was to Carlos Carrasco. He had bounced between the Indians and the Minor League’s from 2009-2013, after first being signed by the Phillies (he was considered the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee trade), missing 2012 because of Tommy John surgery. Carrasco’s return in 2013 brought nothing dynamic, though seemingly better stuff than his 1-4/6.75 with the Indians could indicate, but after getting four starts to open 2014, and getting tagged to an 0-3/6.95 tune, it was time for him to be relegated to the backwaters of low-leverage long relief.
Then things began to change. Carrasco found that he was more comfortable working from the stretch than winding up, and not only was his command better, but he began accelerating his velocity as well, something that rarely happens from such a change. Over 26 relief appearances, he posted a 2.30 ERA. So The Tribe decided to try him in the rotation one more time, after a 59-pitch relief outing vs. Cincinnati early last August showed that he had the stamina to do it. When he took the mound in the Bronx against the Yankees he had a career 14-23/4.98 in the reference books. As such, the market expectations were not major, with Hiroki Kuroda going off as a favorite in the -140 range. The rest is history, being written in progress.
Since that night, a case can be made that Carrasco has been as good as any starter pitcher in the Major League’s. But how much can the markets accept, especially when his streak of brilliance began when not many were paying attention, and then wraps around to the current season? So just how good have those last 11 starts been? Let’s compare Carrasco’s rates, with guys that won the Cy Young awards in 2014, using some traditional measures, so that I would not be “cooking the books” with isolated metrics –
ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9
Carrasco Last 11 1.19 .80 10.5 1.4
Kershaw 2014 1.77 .86 10.8 2.6
Kluber 2014 2.44 1.09 10.3 1.9
Pretty heady stuff, isn’t it? And yes, it is only 11 starts and 75 1/3 innings, so perspective is called for. But just think of what kind of buzz there would have been had he been given a little offensive support to generate more wins – Cleveland only scored 24 runs across those games. His final two starts of 2014 were losses to 2-0 to both the Royals and the Rays (15 IP, three ER, 19 Ks vs. 11 Hits). In each of his last seven starts, the Indians have score two runs or fewer.
Can Carrasco maintain this pace? Of course not, no pitcher can. So the question becomes just where to place him. The key for now is to minimalize his track record before he decided to throw all pitches from the stretch position. There was never much question about his stuff, it was mostly about the command, and in terms of that command, his K/BB ratio since going to the new delivery beats each of the 2014 Cy Young winners. He may not be a meteor, but he can be a shining star.
The markets have not caught up yet, based on tonight’s line for #916 Cleveland vs. the White Sox, and several key precincts are sitting a few pennies below their opener, an indication that Carrasco still lacks a fan club. I am a charter member of that group, and plan to keep playing as long as the value remains so fair.
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