Point Blank – April 1
The Lopez Gambit creates an opening (that one is for Fezzik)…So here is what Mike Budenholzer did last night (confusing the markets, and perhaps his team as well)…Reading through the minutes, of the Warriors/Clippers meeting...
Time to focus on the NBA today, when the fact that a game between teams that are 33-40 and 14-60 is meaningful is anything but an April Fool’s joke. But today we will save the best for last, and work in inverse order of the headlines…
Item: Warriors 154:50 Clippers 201:04 (and about that 28-18…)
Yes, the scoreboard read Golden State 110 L.A. 106 when the counting was done from what turned into an intense playoff-like showdown at the Staples Center last night. The flow brought out some of the sizzle that was set expected from yesterday’s column (full archive link at the bottom of the page), especially in terms of how the Clippers are one of the biggest challengers to the Warriors based on the way that the team’s match up. But even without Draymond Green it was Steve Kerr’s team rallying to get the job done last night, and the way that they did it does send a clear message about what might be expected should a playoff rematch occur. For all of the talk about the brilliance of Stephen Curry, the likely league MVP, one of the major stories of this season has been the Golden State depth. And it was again last night.
The Warrior starters played 46:14 less than their Clipper counterparts. It showed at crunch time, when they had far more energy, especially on the defensive end – it was a convincing 28-18 Golden State win in the fourth quarter, when the only FGs made by L.A. over the final 7:00, after Kerr called a timeout down 94-91, were basically uncontested layups by Chris Paul at 0:12 and 0:04. It was still anyone’s game (103-102 GS) until Matt Barnes fold Andre Iguodala on a 3-point attempt at 1:09, but the overall statement was made.
The Clippers lost despite every starter playing more than 38 minutes, but what happens when Paul sits in this matchup is the issue – they were +4 in his 39:23, and naturally the -8 in the other 8:37. There just is not much that Doc Rivers can do about that until Jamal Crawford returns, and even then his bench will not be a playoff strength. That can be overcome in most matchups – Paul can be a 40-minute guy in the post-season, but it is in this particular challenge, when his defense is badly needed vs. Curry, that the efficiency of those minutes may not quite be good enough.
Item: Mike Budenholzer was going to sit his key guys the entire game, then decided on about half of it
How good is your Atlanta data-base these days? If you are merely downloading and treating every game the same, it is a mess, because several of their game results simply do not carry any meaning whatsoever. Budenholzer is trying to utilize methods that Greg Popovich has executed keeping his San Antonio teams fresh for the playoffs, but this is literally his first rodeo for this kind of setting, and we truly won’t know until the playoffs if he pulled the strings properly. Last night was a unique twist, and one that you should not gloss over.
The original story was that Budenholzer was going to hold his starters out at Detroit. Having won the night before, and with nothing on deck until Saturday, it meant a chance for an extended break. As such, Detroit -6 and 196 was sitting across the screen while I was on the phone with a long-time major off-shore exec (and no, we were not talking about numbers; the focus was on the wines he was bringing for our private viewing party of the NCAA Championship game in a suite at the Encore, a rare visit by him to Las Vegas). While on the call the word got out that the Atlanta starting lineup was going to be the regular one, which led to some cursing by him that could not be repeated, before he had to hang up and re-post the game.
The markets did what looked right – it quickly became Atlanta -2 and 199.5. Which is naturally going to screw up a lot of data-bases right there, creating the illusion of a major line move to the Hawks which was not a move at all, it was simply a readjustment (though some did re-open at pick’em, and quickly saw Hawks money). But even then the information was not entirely accurate. There may not have been anyone in the betting markets that knew of Budenholzer’s real intent, which was to play his starters as a unit for half of the game, and his bench as a unit the rest of the way.
OK, so you are still thinking it may not have been a big deal in the grand scheme. But take a look at what happened when those starters were on the floor. Since they all played the exact amount, you only need one table -
23:44 of Game Time:
Detroit 61 Atlanta Starters 50
By playing roughly the first half of each quarter, then sitting down, the Atlanta starting five had a disjointed game, and fell down badly on the defensive end, which had become a strength again the previous week – their time on the court would pro-rate to the Pistons scoring more than 125 points (you need to more than double the 61, because the starters played the opening part of each quarter, before enough fouls could accumulate for any bonus situations).
Was saving the wear and tear of about 10 minutes off of the usual game rotation for such a setting enough to run the risk of rhythm and chemistry being lost? Time will tell. But one wonders if they might have been ultimately better off not playing at all.
In the Sights…
Forget the fact that the Nets and Knicks are a combined 53 games under .500 – this is a big game in Madison Square Garden. At least for #509 Brooklyn. After some truly silly scheduling that gave the Nets only three home games in a span of nearly six full weeks, they finally got a chance to settle back in, and not only are there team runs of 8-2 SU, and a current 4-0, but far from most radar screens, Brook Lopez is playing some of the best basketball of anyone in the league. And it has been that “Lopez Gambit” (you don’t get to reference a 16th century Spanish priest often), of Lionel Hollins running more pick-and-rolls to showcase the abilities of his big man inside, that makes this run legitimate.
Since the Nets returned for a home game on March 20, ending a long-term run of 17 road games in 25 outings, Lopez has been sensational. Over those last seven games he has averaged 28.1 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.9 blocked shots, and naturally when any player does that it impacts the flow of the entire team. It is that flow, and the nature of some of the other key cogs involved, that sets up tonight.
With Tuesday’s win over Indiana, the Nets now sit in the #8 spot in the Eastern Conference, with nine games to play. But it is not just about hanging on to #8 – they can reach as high as #6 by continuing the current momentum, which means avoiding Atlanta and Cleveland in the first round. And while you may think some of this is facetious (it is April Fool’s day, after all), it is not – if you have guys like Deron Williams and Joe Johnson around, there is not just the pride to want to make the playoffs, but also the swagger that they can genuinely compete when they get there. And why the hell not – since March 1st the Nets have beaten both Golden State and Cleveland, when those opponents had all hands on deck. With Thaddeus Young looking up to speed vs. Indiana, after missing a couple of games with a knee injury, even more optimism is allowed.
Tonight is where some of that veteran savvy can come in to play. While others might be looking past the Knicks (as bad as they have been, just think of how much worse it would have been had all opponents been taking them seriously), the Brooklyn schedule gets tougher from here, with five straight games against winning teams. That makes this one that they need to get in pocket, which will not be lost on this cast.
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Prepping for the Final Four –
Where does Kentucky rate among the All Time Best?
The Tourney Journey #11 (Saturday Review)
The Tourney Journey #12 (Sunday review)
The complete Point Blank Archive