Point Blank – December 15
What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Weekend Starting Five
Five key takeaways from the Weekend Hardwoods that you can add to your own portfolio, gaining some major edges on the betting boards to come…
Item: Kentucky, and Pondering the Platoon post-Poythress
On the surface, for Kentucky to lose Alex Poythress just might not seem like a big deal. He had played 20.3 minutes per game, averaging 5.5 points and 3.8 rebounds, and for a team loaded with talent that production would not appear to be much to replace. With the Wildcats handling North Carolina 84-70 in the first game without him, there is evidence to back that up. The reality, however, may turn out to be much different. The “Platoon” system is over, and that is something worth breaking down in your handling of Kentucky over the next 3+ months. This is still the best team in the country, but one that may have had its ceiling significantly lowered.
There was much talk across the Sports Mediaverse about John Calipari’s decision to go with two separate platoons, with that talent stock legitimately running 10 deep of potential NBA players, and there was an early take here to help set a tone - “Prognosticating the Platoon”. A most favorable interpretation was expressed, with having those two units going at each other ever day in practice offering a potential for development unparalleled in the annals of college basketball. But then a couple of minor injuries took the chemistry of those rotations away against Columbia, which led to that somewhat shocking 11-0 early deficit, covered in “Calipari’s Conundrum”. And while the scoreboard vs. North Carolina may not cause you to take a second glance, you should.
The Wildcats entered the game on pace to set a national record for blocked shots, yet did not record their first until the second half. What had been a dominating defense allowed 45 percent shooting, and they lost the battle of the boards 31-24, with the Tar Heels having more offensive rebounds (18), than Kentucky had defensive caroms (13). The Wildcats were still good enough to win, with some of their best shooting of the season, but the chemistry they were building had clearly been disrupted, with only one practice without Poythress.
This will not be two units anymore, but a mixing and matching of those talented pieces at various times. The best combination may actually be a smaller one, with Tyler Ulis (eight assists vs. Carolina) joining the Harrison twins for a three-guard lineup. But that means a lot of experimenting ahead, which will create some vulnerabilities and inconsistencies. What looked like the potential upside of being one of the greatest teams ever, because of that daily five-on-five practice competition, is now gone, and for as little as the Poythress stats would wow anyone, even if the next few months go well this team could still fall about a half dozen points short of their previous potential.
Item: Christmas Came Early for the Hawks…
You probably don’t have Atlanta futures tickets in your portfolio. Which would be smart. And despite the fact that there are seemingly good prices still out there on a team that closed the week at 16-7, a moment away from 17-6 before Tobias Harris knocked down a jumper in Orlando at the buzzer Saturday night, pay no heed. The Houses don’t need the gelt, and this time of year a donation to the Salvation Army will bring a better feeling, and ultimately the same return. The Hawks simply are not very good, so resist temptation, and instead be prepared to fade.
Atlanta is not deep or talented. The Hawks have a core that has played well together, but Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap and Al Horford are more role players that you would try to fit around stars with a contending team, and Kyle Korver and DeMarre Carroll are reserves being forced into starter's minutes. They do not do anything particularly well, even before the asterisk that you are probably expecting by now:
Atlanta Ratings by category
Points-per-Possession (O) #10
Points-per-Possession (D) #8
FG% (O) #12
FG% (D) #11
Tunovers (O) #19
Turnovers Forced #22
Rebound % #24
Nothing special there, and certainly nothing that would call for a 16-7. And now that major BUT – they have also done this against the NBA’s softest schedule. Through those 23 games they have only faced four teams that currently sport winning records, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, losing on the scoreboard by an average of 13.3, and to the spread by a collective 30 points. The nine-game winning streak that got snapped at Orlando came against nine teams with losing records.
Now it turns. The next five games will all come against winning teams, and you should be ready on the trigger. Like tonight, when #709 Chicago should be “In the Sights…” The Bulls are the underdogs in the early trading because of the likely absence of Joakim Noah (they are off until Friday after this, so can afford to give time for his ankle to heal), but the chemistry has been solid in those last three games without him, wins over Brooklyn, Portland and Miami in which they exceeded the market expectations by 31.5 points. There might even be a crack at a full +3 later. Chicago is trustworthy at grinding out this class, playing with those solid fundamentals that force an opponent to step up and beat them. Atlanta is hard-pressed to do that against a superior team.
Item: Utah’s Big Week on “D”
Larry Krystowiak’s stamp is now firmly on the Utah program. He was brought on board for a difficult transition as the Utes moved up to the Pac 12, and is not just adding the necessary talent, but also getting the players to buy-in to his way of playing. That means guarding with tenacity and savvy, and they just turned in about as good of a week on defense as we will see this season.
It started on Wednesday in that 65-61 grinder of a win at Brigham Young, with the Cougars not being held to less than that count in Provo since March of 2009. And just when it looked like the intensity of that rivalry win had taken a toll, and a Kansas team that Elite Eight prospects jumped out 42-21 in Kansas City on Saturday, it was that defense that truly came from and center.
Ordinarily when a team makes a big rally it comes from getting hot at the offensive end – it is not easy to maintain defensive intensity when a game is getting out of reach. But the Utes dug-in, and went on an amazing 34-11 run over 16:23 of court time. That is tremendous against that class of competition, and in one stretch the Jayhawks were held scoreless for 5:44. They made one FG in the final 9:15.
Over those two games the Utah only allowed 29-77 on two-point attempts, for 37.7 percent. What kept Saturday from looking even better, and perhaps an outright upset, was the 21-23 Kansas performance at the FT line. And both games were played without key cog Jordan Loveridge. This team has a chance to be an ATS sleeper, since the grinding of defense lacks market sex appeal, and their physical play could be a particular asset in a conference not noted for such.
Item: The Mavericks are not built for the post-season (nor some parts of the regular-season, either)
Much like Atlanta, there would seemingly be good signs coming from Dallas, where the Mavericks are 17-8, and on pace to win into the 50’s. But it is not the regular-season wins that ultimately matter, it is how well this group can perform should they make it to May, and perhaps June. But this time around April may cause more than May flowers; it could also be when the Dallas season ends, in a first-round playoff demise. And the elements behind that are something that can be of use during the regular-season as well.
This offense is good, very good, averaging nearly a full 2.0 more per 100 possessions than anyone else. You can win 50 games or more with that. But the defense and rebounding have not been good enough, and with this particular group may not be able to get much better. They are #23 in both defensive efficiency and rebounding rate, and most seasons you do not even reach the playoffs with those flaws, much less advance. This was evident again on Saturday, in which should have been a showdown at home against league-leading Golden State. The drama never materialized. The Warriors jumped out 39-18 at the end of the first quarter and were never threatened, leading 100-81 at 5:00 of a game that ended a misleading 105-98.
Here is the perspective – despite that 17-9, the Mavs are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS against teams above them in the Western Conference standings, losing to the spread by 37.5 points in those games. Follow that closely, because their record and past reputation will keep them competitively priced in such settings. Why has a defense with Tyson Chandler in the middle been so bad? They are just too small and too slow on the perimeter. They are dead last in the NBA in allowing 39.7 percent on 3-point attempts, and only the lowly 76ers have forced turnovers at a lower rate. When your starting lineup has only one player under 30, and forwards Dirk Nowtizki (36) and Richard Jefferson (34) are among the oldest tandems ever, this is not fixable. They will play with savvy on offense to beat lesser teams (10-2 SU when favored by -7 or more), but those step-up games are going to be a problem all season long. You should be ready to take advantage when those opportunities are presented.
Item: What now, for Michigan?
Last week was shockingly bad for John Beilein and his Wolverines, an 0-3 SU and ATS collar that offered home losses as huge favorites vs. New Jersey Institute of Technology and Eastern Michigan, and then what became a white-flag 80-53 thumping at Arizona on Saturday. Michigan fell 59 points below the market expectations in those games, which obviously means a lot of scrambling in the back rooms to come up with a better power rating, especially with the amount of anti-Blue money in Saturday’s marketplace.
When markets are thrown off balance, Bettors have opportunity. This may be such a case. You will not fill out the fingers of one hand if you try to list better tactical coaches then Beilein, who has made a career of defying expectations by maximizing the talent that is on hand. And keep in mind that the team that took Kentucky to the wire in the Elite Eight LY also opened 6-4, the same record as they sport this morning. Those 6-4’s are not comparable in reality, but it does offer an opportunity for the coach to calm the waters, which he is already doing -
"I think it's a great reality check for everyone that we end up knowing that we have a lot of work to do. We have to stay together and keep working really hard. We've been here before. Our great teams have been exactly in this same spot before. This is part of the process and you have to embrace it and try to get better, and better through the process."
The biggest problem, of course, is that none of the current starters would necessarily have their roles had the NBA not beckoned. This could have been a Trey Burke-Nik Stauskas-Glenn Robinson III-Mitch McGary-Jon Horford configuration, which would rate no lower than #3 in the nation. Those early departures are a lot to have to process through, and it really is an issue around the basket, where both size and experience are missing. The lack of size is going to be a negative all season, but Beilein has worked around that with several different programs in his past. It is the experience that should be watched closely. There are only two more games before Big 10 play begins, which is not much of an opportunity to get on track. Hence they could be a rather slow work in progress, but expect that progress to be there. That could mean ample opportunities to be buying in at solid value in conference play, with those concrete results from last week helping to anchor the Pomeroy/Sagarin numbers in a way that can be exploited later.