Point Blank – November 19
What if the Cav’s can’t guard…Prognosticating the Platoon…Tough to score, in Spokane…
Time to drive some ideas to the rim, as the Hoops take center stage...
What if the Cavaliers can’t guard?
It is a tough time for defense in Cleveland. Yesterday there was a take here on how those LB injuries are going to create havoc for an already struggling Brown unit. Today the focus goes indoors to the hardwoods, and a major Eye Test opportunity as LeBron James gets a chance at some personal revenge vs. the Spurs, after that resounding defeat in the NBA Finals last June. The problem that James and the Heat had then was that they simply could not defend the way that the San Antonio offense moved the ball to find open looks. The problem James and the Cavaliers have now is that they have not been able to guard much of anyone at all. The question is just how well they are going to be able to.
For Cleveland to open 5-4 should be considered a disappointment, not a shock. Many of the key cogs had not previously played together. None of them had played for David Blatt, who had never even been in the NBA as an assistant. There is a belief, and a proper one, that the pieces in place are good enough for them to be a prime contender come playoff time. They can be the league’s best offense. But what if there is also a genuine question as to how good the defensive chemistry can get, and how well Blatt can coach that part of the game?
Through those first nine outings the Cavaliers are #2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, which has to be somewhat frightening for opponents, since they are only going to get better. But at the other end of the court they check in tied for #25, ahead of four teams that are a combined 10-31 straight up. Cleveland is allowing 53.6 percent on two-point attempts, with only Minnesota worse. How about #23 at forcing turnovers? It shows that teams have been able to get into a comfort zone in the early stages. But here is the rub – does that aspect necessarily change over time?
While developing chemistry will matter with this group, the bottom line is that the individual components to build a great defense are not there. LeBron can be an excellent defender, but what about the others? Kevin Love is nothing special on that end. Anderson Varejao plays hard, but is already 33 years old, and will not average 30 minutes this season. Kyrie Irving has been an offense-first guy, and like so many early-entries into the NBA, was not in college long enough to learn the finer points of defending. Shawn Marion has the guile, but will be 37 when the playoffs come around, and the fact that he is getting starters minutes is going to take a toll. And all the while this is Blatt’s first time through the league, having to build game plans like the one he will need against Gregg Popovich’s intricate playbook tonight.
It all adds up for a prime learning opportunity as we watch this evening, and if any +3’s get out there, perhaps an earning opportunity as well.
Prognosticating the Platoon
There was a Good News/Bad News aspect to watching Kentucky’s domination of Kansas last night – the good was that it confirmed some notions that were being developed from this desk; the bad is that the Wildcats were a little too good in the process of doing that, which will limit opportunities to take advantage.
There has been much written across the Sports Mediaverse about John Calipari’s decision to go with a two-unit platoon system, and a great deal of it was negative. It was easy to find discussions about the struggles to build chemistry, and how all of those talented players would not be happy with their limited time on the court. But there is also a different take available. Should Calipari be able to get them to buy in on just how special their prospects are, come March we may genuinely be looking at one of the best teams in the history of college basketball. That is not hyperbole.
Here is why – there is a development arc here that has never been available before. Each of those Wildcat platoons would be a Top 20 team, at least. The Blue Platoon by itself, because of the experience, could be #1. The White Platoon will only get better. So what is going to unfold? Over the next 4+ months, the best basketball in the nation is going to be played at Kentucky practices. And that is what has been missed by most of the analysis that I have read and listened to. What happens if you take a group of starters that may be #1 on their own, and put them up against a fierce opponent every day in practice? And how much better does the White Platoon get because of what they have to go up against each day? While it is very early in their development, some of those keys were visible last night.
First, the defense will be absolutely suffocating. There were as many blocked shots (11) as there were made Kansas field goals. And that was vs. a talented Jayhawk team that has Elite Eight potential come March. Kentucky has the size to defend better than any college team to ever play the game, and because there are no issues with fatigue or foul trouble, it will be fascinating to watch. But now for one of the subtle keys…
There is always a fear in developing talented players into a unit that they go off on their own at times and try to do too much one-on-one with the ball. For a roster filled with nine McDonald’s All-Americans, that would ordinarily be a monster headache for Calipari. But the quality of those defenses is his aspirin. Each Platoon has to work so hard in practice to find a good shot that the notion of individual forays simply goes away. That led to a stat just as impressive as having as many blocked shots as made Kansas baskets – how about 15 assists vs. only six turnovers? That showed the ball movement, and the unselfish play. And then this – by the time Kentucky had 30 points, all 10 players had scored, which is not easy to do, and all 10 scored in each half.
The upside here is frightening, because that 72-40 domination was by a young team that has only scratched the surface of its potential. Unfortunately value may not be easy to find because of that showing, but make sure that in your own ratings you recognize what is happening here, and do not fall into the trap of wanting to find spots to play against them. This is a most unusual set of circumstances, and you need to treat them accordingly.
In the Sights…
Calipari is not the only coach with more options than usual for the playing rotation – Mark Few may have his deepest team yet at Gonzaga. Much of that showed in the 72-56 domination of SMU Monday night, with the defense being even better than the final score - the Mustangs were sitting on 47 with 2:14 remaining. And that was with 7-1 Przemek Karnowski and 6-10 Domantas Sabonis both having their minutes limited by foul trouble. The chemistry on offense was also at a late-season level already, with the starting five posting 18 assists vs. only four turnovers (the veteran back-court combo of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell turned in an 11:1). Larry Brown has been around long enough to not be easy to impress, and his takeaway after losing was – “I love them. They’re deep. They have great guard play. They have depth and size – four bigs that all have a different dimension. They’ve got so many perimeter guys. They’ve got it all, and a great environment.”
Now St. Joseph’s has to head out west for a game at “The New Kennel” that tips off at 11 PM on their body clocks, a long trip after a tense 52-49 win over cross-Philly rival Drexel on Monday. The Hawks have only shot 37.7 percent and managed an average of 53.5 points vs. a pair of much lesser opponents than they are facing tonight, and finding ways to score against what will be a relentless Bulldog defense will severely tax their current abilities.
This week at Point Blank:
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #12
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Tuesday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #11
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