Point Blank – December 8
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #15...What is the Home Court Advantage when the Road Team can walk to the arena?...
After several months of waking up with an urgency on Monday’s as a new NCAA board gets posted, the setting is much different this week. That means an opportunity to digest the final findings of the first go-round for the Playoff committee, before awaiting the first set of lines for the minor bowls to hit the board.
Item: The Fashion Show
First for something that you can use as a tangible takeaway – the last 48 hours before the committee finished. One of the concerns about these new processes is that while “style points” were always a lurking issue in the past, for the first time the teams were going to be paraded up and down the runway in view of specific judges. And while it was a rather obvious issue for the oddsmakers and betting markets, the six teams either in the fight for a spot, or looking to better their seeding, soared to a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in which they ran roughshod over the expectations by a collective 120.5 points.
This showed rather clearly in the fourth quarter, when those teams controlled the opposition 62-20, not letting up at all on defense. And note that the allowance could have easily been less – Arizona’s Jerrard Randall scored on a 25-yard run on the very final play vs. Oregon. Alabama, Ohio State and TCU all pitched fourth-quarter shutouts. 'Bama and Ohio State both added otherwise unnecessary on TDs on drives that could have run out the clock, although you should lay blame on Missouri and Wisconsin defenses that did not play hard enough to stop them. Gary Patterson left a TD on the board by not trying from inside the Iowa State 10-yard line when his Horned Frogs could have tacked one on. Baylor failed on the first drive of the final stanza vs. Kansas State, but it was mission accomplished when the Bears got the ball back, running off 10 plays to erase the final 5:08.
Will this be the pattern going forward? It is what the Powers That Be have set up, so will not be likely to change, and it is so obvious that the markets will flock to it. There was only one team that did not genuinely take command of the proceedings in their final showcase opportunity, which then takes us to the heart of this year’s final committee salvo.
Item: The Brave New World isn’t much different than the old one
Back in October there was a take here on the possible issues that would come along with the decision to post the committee ratings each week, an exercise geared more for television dollars than anything else. Had they simply waited until this past Sunday, and posted those ratings for the first time, there likely would not have been all that much controversy. Alabama and Oregon were shoe-ins; Florida State survives from some out-dated thought processes that would not inflame the Sports Mediaverse, because it has been those very media types pushing such thinking all along; and Ohio State’s dominating showing vs. Wisconsin was the kind of summation that is difficult to argue with.
But here is where transparency trips up the process. On Tuesday, TCU was rated ahead of Florida State. Since that time the Horned Frogs played a solid all-around game to dismantle Iowa State 55-3, while the Seminoles had yet another close call, never really having much command of the proceedings in that 37-35 win vs. Georgia Tech. If a combined 23 games played by the two teams had TCU rated better, just what would it have been from those final two to cause a flip-flop?
Had there not been a set of ratings published on Tuesday, it would be a non-issue. Now it becomes one moving forward. If the first time anyone saw the ratings it was Florida State #3 and TCU #6, there would not be many questions, but how Tuesday morphed into Sunday does deserve some scrutiny. And one does have to wonder if part of moving Ohio State ahead of both Baylor and TCU was to remove the awkwardness of the head-to-head between the Big 12 schools, which would have certainly set a kettle to a rolling boil if the Horned Frogs had been ahead, which they were until Sunday. That head-to-head got largely misinterpreted across the Sports Mediaverse, which was dealt with in this column last week ("On why Baylor didn't win the head-to-head vs. TCU, Part II"), but in the final tally, the committee was able to work around that by avoiding the issue.
Let this be your takeaway concerning those two Big 12 teams. Not only did TCU’s loss at Baylor actually make the Horned Frogs the slightly better team, given the advantage that Waco has proven to be, but in the other eight league games they had a +208 scoring margin, vs. +159 for the Bears. Despite the deficit in that margin, it was Baylor they got the #5 slot, which was wrong, but relatively immaterial in the grand scheme. But now for the other key takeaway…
Item: Would Florida State have been a .500 team in the SEC West?
I end up with Florida State tied for #9 on my final ratings, and while that could appear as a manufactured exaggeration to try to make a better story, it is right in line with where the oddsmakers and betting markets currently place the Seminoles. We do not have to look any further than comparisons off of their Georgia Tech game on Saturday night. The previous week the Yellow Jackets had played Georgia in Athens, and the next time we will see Paul Johnson’s squad will be against Mississippi State in the Orange Bowl on New Year’s Eve. That brings relevant comparisons, so clip away the hedges of Athens to remove Georgia’s home field advantage, which would have made the Bulldogs -8 at a neutral site, and then look at the current Orange Bowl line of Mississippi State -7 in some key precincts. What would this make those two SEC schools in a head-to-head vs. the Seminoles?
Neutral Field, off of Georgia Tech comparisons:
Georgia -4.5 FSU
Mississippi State -3.5 FSU
And in truth, that looks about right, exept for Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs being better than Mark Richt’s (the difference is that Georgia Tech’s last two games bring the Yellow Jackets a better power rating into the Orange Bowl than they had prior to heading to Georgia). Which raises a question as to just where the Seminoles would have fit in a place like the SEC West. Would they have been anything more than a .500 team in that group? They would only clearly be favored over Texas A&M, with a small nod against Arkansas. But games vs. LSU, Auburn, and Mississippi would be near pick’em (I would have the Rebels favored), and they would be underdogs against Alabama and Mississippi State.
There is something to be said about a team that plays with poise under pressure, which State has indeed done. But instead of the credit that they are being given as a “team that knows how to win”, which you will read ad nauseum over the next month, perhaps the biggest reason why the Seminoles went 7-0 in games decided by six points or less is that the opposition simply was not good enough to make one more play. It is not so much that Florida State won, but that with the pressure on, a group of opponents not quite ready for the prime stage lost. Hence, why the markets were quick to accept Oregon as being the favorite by more than a full TD for that semi-final matchup in the Rose Bowl, and are on the verge of sending that game to -10.
Florida State does not belong in this field. There is an out-dated model that still makes W/L records the top priority in the setting of ratings, which ludicrously has the 'Noles #2 in the final AP poll of the regular season. It is a model that exists so that those involved do not have to do all that much work each week. But if the Playoff processes are to develop the necessary sophistication over time, hopefully it is one that will slowly fade away. And there is something else that also needs to fade away…
Item: Why Eight, Isn’t Great
Naturally when there was controversy surrounding who got in and who did not, it brought one of the usual knee-jerk responses from the Sport Mediaverse – “Let’s expand to eight teams and this would not happen!” Except that instead of making things less controversial, it would only jumble matters even further. The problem is similar to the top of a pyramid – every level that you drop down brings many more options than the one above it. Not only does that mean the difficulty of sorting through those options, but it can also introduce a degree of mediocrity that should not be welcome in this process.
This season would not be awful for Eight, the list starts easily enough – add Baylor, TCU and Michigan State. But then what? Mississippi State ahead of Mississippi? But the Rebels beat the Bulldogs convincingly, far above the home field advantage, and also beat Alabama. For this campaign, that would be the only major issue. But let’s go back in time, and look at models that would also be more likely precursors of the future than the current campaign.
2013:
Florida State is in at 13-0, as are likely five teams with one defeat. But then comes a cluster of seven “Power Five” (P5 from here on) teams with two losses. Good look determining which two of those seven move on.
2012:
Ohio State was 12-0, but not eligible. Notre Dame gets in at 12-0. There are four P5 teams with one loss that you can pencil in, but then eight more with a pair of defeats that you have to sort through to come up with three. Have fun.
2011:
LSU is unbeaten and in, as are three P5 teams with one loss. But then there are seven with two defeats, as well as Boise State with one. Out of that group of eight you have to eliminate four and keep four. Enjoy.
And so forth. First, it creates more controversy and headaches, instead of reducing them. Second is that it can reward mediocrity; in just about every season there will be teams with two losses advancing. Which leads to the third point, and perhaps the most important - the impact on the sport. While the NCAA basketball tournament is a great annual spectacle, it comes at a genuine cost to the regular season – a lot of the pressure is off. Each year there are about two dozen or so teams that pretty much know their ticket is punched from the opening tipoffs in November, with precious few games bringing a sense of urgency. That may be OK for a regular season of 25 games or so, but in football’s dozen, removing that takes a lot away.
Think of it this way – if there is a Playoff of Eight, every team in a P5 conference would know that they can lose a game and still be in the hunt. That alters the landscape significantly. One of the greatest of college football’s many charms is that the short schedule brings a sense of urgency found from no other sport, and to give that away would be to lose something truly special. Yes, the professional leagues created extra divisions and added Wild Card spots to keep more teams interested in the late season, but college football already has the consolation prize of bowl games to keep teams playing hard. Too many bowl games, in fact, making the requirements to be on the field for one too easy. But too many bowl teams can at least be excused, since there is no harm done; what the sport does not need are too many playoff teams.
In the Sights…
OK, there has not been anything that you can directly build your bankroll from in this column. So how about heading to the hardwoods, and one of those settings in which the home court advantage is artificially high when #519 Brown faces Providence at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center. How far of a trip is it for the Bears? One whole mile from campus, a short trek over the Providence River down Angell Street.
Because of the proximity there are none of the usual disadvantages for a road team, and the Bears will have plenty of fans for support. As such, the points allotted for the home court do not equate. But note that it is also a much bigger game for them than for the Friars, especially since Brown graduate Mike Martin became coach two years ago. Martin knows what it takes to win with this program – he was a four-year starter on the winningest team in Brown history, one that went 39-17 in Ivy League play from 2000-04. And he has already been able to get his players to take to heart what this rivalry means – in his first two games against Providence it has been an outright upset (69-68 as +12 in 2012) and a near-miss (lost 73-69 as +13.5 last December). The focus will be just as high this time – the Bears have two weeks off after tonight for final exams, so they can lay everything they have on the court.
For the Friars it is a different story – their two biggest non-conference rivals are Boston College and Rhode Island. They lost to the former on Friday, and host the latter on Wednesday. There is little about facing their “little brother” that stirs much passion, especially since they have not been favored by less than -12 over the past decade in this series. It is just win and move on for Ed Cooley, and since his team lacks depth and does not force tempo, it makes tonight’s spread loom an even higher hurdle.