POINT BLANK – August 20
“The (Braxton) Miller’s Tale”
There was a temptation to try an audience test at the start, and question whether the title was a play on words off of - A. Shakespeare; B. Chaucer; or C. Balzac. But the days of search engines have taken the fun out of that. This tale will also be told with a sobriety that its namesake was not, and that sobriety should be adopted by the reader as well – what might appear to have been an earthquake in Columbus, Ohio on Monday, could turn out to only be a minor tremor.
You have likely figured out by now that Braxton Miller’s injury is the topic. When a QB that is a prime candidate for the Heisman Trophy, and also one that could be leading his team to the National Championship, goes down, it is indeed news. The Ohio State/Navy opener on August 30 quickly came off the board, and Futures Books also had some disruption, before major adjustments were made. So as the markets shuffle, it is time to get to work.
There is no denying Miller’s talent, and having 34 career starts entering his senior season puts him high on the all-time QB annals in terms of experience. But in truth, despite the fact that there is not another QB on the roster with any appreciable experience, Urban Meyer is not facing a crisis. Redshirt freshman J. T. Barrett not only brings enormous potential, he may also be much more ready to step in and play well than the Sports Mediaverse and betting marketplace will likely believe.
Here is the key – Miller was held out of spring practice, which meant that Barrett and sophomore Cardale Jones got extensive time running the show. It was a fast-track in terms of development, because much of that time was behind a young OL that was having to go up against a DL that will be as good as any in the nation (don’t underestimate the impact of Larry Johnson coming on board to coach that group). Jones actually had a slight lead after the Spring Game, but it has been Barrett moving into the #2 spot behind Miller, and now #1, since fall practice began.
Note that fall has also been an extension of the spring routines. Even before the Monday injury Miller was being brought along slowly, and was held held out of the two recent scrimmages. That has meant additional quality time for both Barrett and Jones, who have each had a chance to develop a rapport with the other key players in the offensive skill positions, while also giving the coaches a chance to adapt to their particular skills. Hence, it is a far cry from having an injury occur during the season, when the chemistry of the offense can be thrown out of sync.
It also matters that in terms of that chemistry, the playbook will not change much at all. Barrett (from Wichita Falls, TX) brings the necessary mobility for the Ohio State schemes, and in fact was the first QB recruit that Meyer signed after taking over the Buckeye job. He might not have splashed across the radar screens as dramatically as he could have because of a knee injury midway through his final high school season, but the ability to red-shirt in 2013 was not only valuable time to learn the system and watch Miller perform, it was also ideal for his physical rehab.
Yet many are going to see a transition from Miller’s experience to a player that has never taken the field as a major drop, and in fact that may become the “common wisdom”. But having gone through all of spring practice, and most of the fall camp so far, working as the #1 or #2 QB, Barrett will be much further along than those perceptions - he will not face a tougher DL in a game this season than the one he goes up against in practice each day. And there are openings in the marketplace to take advantage right now.
The SuperBook in Las Vegas (yes, there is a temptation to still say “Hilton” or “LVH”, and it will take a while for “Westgate” to set in) raised the Ohio State National Championship odds from 12-1 to 50-1. A quick run this morning shows that you can find 40-1 offshore, perhaps higher when there is time to shop around. Let that sink in for a moment.
Even if a significant power ratings adjustment is made (CRIS went from a -17 opener vs. Navy with Miller to a -12.5 without him), the Buckeyes are still likely to be favored in 11 of their 12 regular-season games, with a potential underdog role at Michigan State on November 8. The schedule also lays out well – after the opener vs. Navy in Baltimore, the Buckeyes do not leave campus in September, including a bye week. That is a pretty favorable cycle to break in a young QB. And should they pass their regular-season tests, the Big 10 West does not appear to bring an imposing opponent to the conference title clash at Indianapolis.
Now take it a step further. Given how fierce the competition will be in conferences like the SEC and Pac 12, it is also reasonable that even with a loss, a 12-1 Ohio State team could find its way into the four-team playoff for the championship. When you are buying a ticket in the 40-1 range, you are not necessarily wagering that the Buckeyes will win it all; you are wagering that they will “be there”. Get to that Final Four, and your mission will have been accomplished, with a multitude of maneuvers that you can make at that juncture to turn the ticket into something profitable. Rate Ohio State as a solid "Buy" at 30-1 or better.
In the sights…
A Jake Peavy correction is tempting. He is not the pitcher he once was, but he is a veteran that still has gas in the tank, and the moxie to compete well down the stretch in a pennant race. And if there is a “buy signal” out there, the irony is that for once it is not because of what he did, but rather for something that the team around him accomplished.
Peavy sports a 2-12/4.57 personal line this season, and the team he took the mound for lost in 18 of his 24 starts. His performance level does not come anywhere near that – a 10-14 or 11-13 would have been a more likely distribution. But he has often been pitching on the wrong day, in terms of offensive support. Last week vs. the White Sox he ended a remarkable stretch of 19 starts without a win, with his team going 2-17 in the process. And the way he battled in the game that ended the schneid matters.
Peavy entered last Wednesday having been backed by three runs or less in 11 of his previous 12 starts. First it was the Boston offense, and when he joined the Giants it got even worse – he was given only six runs through the first three starts, and got tagged with L’s in games in which he was tied 1-1 in the bottom of the 6th, and another when he carried a no-hitter at 0-0 into the bottom of the seventh.
For a long time, Wednesday looked like more of the same. He kept battling against Chicago despite getting no run support, and when he left the mound in the middle of the seventh San Francisco trailed 1-0. Another well-pitched loss might have been devastating, even for such a veteran. But the Giants exploded for seven runs in that frame, and it may prove to be a major psychological turning point. Now Peavy not only gets that boost, but also a week off to be physically recharged, while returning to the city where he maintained a residence for much of the last four years (he was with the White Sox from 2010-13) adds another spark this evening. His full-season stats sell him cheaply; tonight you may see a better Peavy than those numbers can show.
Meanwhile Edwin Jackson has actually been even worse than his dreary 6-13/5.74 shows – of the 117 pitchers with at least 100 IP, his DBF (“Difficulty of Batters Faced”) is #111. He is on pace to make it a third straight season in which his allowance increased by more than a half run; it is unlikely that anyone in MLB will give him a chance to extend that streak in 2015.