Point Blank – December 3
On why Baylor didn’t win the head-to-head vs. TCU, Part II…Whistled for “Traveling”, before tipoff…The “D” was not OK(C)…Swing time, in Madison…
On Monday there was a take on one of the prime topics for discussion that has become a part of the Playoff process – “Item: Baylor did not “win” the Head-to-Head vs. TCU” (link at the bottom of this page), and there were details on how to properly account for the home field advantage the Bears had for that game. While there is absolutely a fear of being called redundant, with apologies up front, there have been several questions on that take. Meanwhile the Sports Mediaverse was at it again last night (ESPN’s Playoff show producing Danny Kanell's seemingly angry - “They have ignored the head-to-head matchup.”), and this morning the Las Vegas Review-Journal, which has writers who at least should have some knowledge of the intricacies of ratings, offered a headline of “Head-to-head leaves Baylor shaking head”. So let’s go a step further, and not just address this issue in more detail, but also show methods that you can use for determining home-field values in the future.
First, the notion of giving Baylor the nod over TCU for that win should absolutely require something that at least matches the home field advantage. That is lost on many across that Sports Mediaverse, though perhaps not the committee. Otherwise the Bears make the Playoffs because of the random draw of having been the home team for that game, and there is not much merit to that. Now back to trying to approximate what having that game played in Waco really meant. On Monday it was a survey of the home field advantage since the new Big 12 alignment, but let’s add data points - this time we will take the tables back for four seasons, the careers of the seniors that were not red-shirted, but eliminate those 2011 games vs. Missouri and Texas A&M, which are no longer in the Big 12. This creates a nice symmetry – two games both Home and Away vs. Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, two away and one home v. Kansas State and West Virginia. It brings a total of 28 games -
Margin Per Game
13 Home +280 21.5
15 Away -1 -0.6
28 is not a huge sample, but it is more than enough to be meaningful, especially against the same set of opponents. On Monday there was also a breakdown using an overall four-point home field advantage for the other Big 12 teams, which is a fair measure. If we go to an impartial and reliable source like The Gold Sheet, it comes close – they rate the venues of the other seven conference teams at an average of 3.6. So in those Big 12 road games, let’s program in that Baylor faced an adversity of 4.0 per outing. That takes the -1 scoreboard compilation up to a projected +59 with that attachment. Over those 15 games, it correlates to Baylor being 3.9 points better than the rest of the Big 12, if the games were played at a neutral site.
Which takes us to the +280 over 13 games at home. If the Bears were 3.9 better than the rest of the conference on a neutral field, the expectation for those home games would be 50.7 points before any advantage is built in. Let’s round up to 51. That still leaves 229 points that can be attributed to kicking off in Waco, or a rather staggering 17.6 per game of a home field edge. That may sound far beyond anything you would believe possible, but those are 28 real scoreboard outcomes in play.
Naturally it would be easy for the Sports Mediaverse to not recognize how strong Waco has been - the betting markets routinely have to make these calls, and even they have struggled to adapt to this extreme. Despite the high-profile nature of the Waco performances, Baylor has still gone 10-3 ATS over those 13 games, exceeding the projections by 78.5 points, or 6.0 per game. In eight of the 10 covers the Bears beat the closing line by more than 10 points. This has been something truly exceptional.
There is not a standard model or a refined precision for this kind of analysis, and as always the particulars of each game bring a unique set of factors. But in this instance no matter how you crunch the numbers, the Baylor home field advantage has been the strongest in all of college football, by a wide margin, over the career cycle of the current players. As such, to be sitting in a 58-58 tie after 59:56 of football vs. TCU, before Chris Callahan nailed that 28-yard field goal on the final play, does not give Baylor any head-to-head “win” over the Horned Frogs. It just doesn’t. Given the value of the site, the scoreboard result that day would color the Bears as the slightly inferior team.
Whistled for “Traveling”, before tipoff
One of the things that a college basketball coach wants to hear the least, is a whistle blowing against on of his players for taking too many steps. But for tonight there are a couple of settings in which both the players and their coaches are forced to take way too many steps, two that are directly because of the control of television money. So as literal “Dribbling for Dollars” takes place, make sure to perform your adjustments properly.
Early-season tournaments are becoming so popular that it seems about half of the lined teams now take part in one. They create their own particular dynamics, not only in how to handicap them, but what they do for the team in terms of the building process (multiple games on back-to-back days is a nice tool for growth, both in terms of on-court and team bonding). But the aftermath can be awkward. Naturally the longer the trip the more difficult it is to re-adjust, especially after playing in different time zones, or at much different times of day than usual. Where it gets even worse is when a team only gets a short return home, and then has to head back out on the road again. A trio of those are on tap for tonight -
#743 Michigan State at Notre Dame. The Spartans played in Orlando on Thursday-Friday-Sunday, including an intense battle vs. Kansas for the tourney championship. The Fighting Irish have been at home since November 24, coasting past Grambling and Chicago State.
#759 UTEP at Colorado State. The Miners played three games in three days at the Wooden Classic, closing on Sunday night in that 68-65 loss to Washington. Colorado State is returning from the Great Alaska Shootout, but that ended on Saturday night, so the Rams have had several days to settle back in at home.
#765 Georgia Tech at Northwestern. The Yellow Jackets were in that field with Michigan State in Orlando, finishing against Rhode Island on Sunday evening. The host Wildcats did play two games in two days at Cancun last week, but that tourney ended on Wednesday.
It is not just the travel issues for these visitors, but also the fact that there is precious little time to do any scouting of tonight’s opponent. Meanwhile consider the advantage on the scouting front for Notre Dame and Northwestern, which could sit and watch their opponents on national television Sunday.
And yes, you could technically claim that #781 Fullerton also falls under this umbrella, after finishing a tournament at Spartanburg, South Carolina, on Saturday. But the Titans were able to sleep in their own beds last night (or at least had that option, who can be sure with young male libidos), and only face a short game-day bus ride to Westwood to face UCLA.
About Last Night…
With the return of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant a little ahead of the projected schedule, Oklahoma City goes under the microscope quickly, and as discussed here last week (“Will there be Lightning, for the Thunder?” - /pregame-forums/f/14/t/1104051.aspx), there are going to be some adjustment issues. They were painfully on display last night.
In that 112-104 loss at New Orleans the early defense was a disaster – the Pelicans led 69-52 at halftime. Durant’s 15:23 minutes in that span produced a -14, with three turnovers and no assists. It only got a little better after intermission, and when the counting was done, New Orleans had three players with 23 points or more, and the Thunder had more turnovers than assists. Durant and Westbrook combined to give the ball away 14 times in a combined 62:36 of court time. The duo also launched 38 shots in that span, compared to 46 for the rest of the team over the entirety of the game. This is going to be a work in progress, so do not expect too much too soon, which some of in the market appeared to be doing in yesterday’s trading.
In the Sights…
There was an early challenge for the college basketball oddsmakers in pricing the best of the ACC/Big 10 clashes tonight, and they may have come up a bit short. Yes, this is one of the most talented teams that Mike Krzyzewski has ever had at Duke, which is saying something. But facing #768 Wisconsin at the Kohl Center just might be the single most difficult place for these young Blue Devils to play right now. Yes, tougher on December 3, 2014, than Lexington would be. If Duke were to play Kentucky, there would be a lot of talented freshmen running up and down the court, a game that would be decided as much by athleticism as basketball teamwork and chemistry. But not in Madison.
Bo Ryan not only has his most talented team, one that was just a basket away from playing for the National Championship last April, but also one of his most experienced. The starting five of Sam Dekker, Josh Gasser, Nigel Hayes, Traevon Jackson and Frank Kaminsky has combined to play 449 games in Wisconsin uniforms, including 287 starts. As for Duke, there will be three true freshmen on the court for the opening tipoff, and that group only has 206 games and 128 starts. And while Coach K does not mind major early-season challenges on neutral courts, playing in someone else’s backyard is another matter entirely – Quinn Cook is the only player left from the last such setting, an 85-63 drubbing suffered at Ohio State in November of 2011.
The Blue Devils can run and make plays. What they may not be ready for is the discipline of a half-court grinder, which the Badgers will turn this into, forcing them to guard that swing offense deep into the shot clock. Keep in mind that even in that 10-point win over Michigan State at Indianapolis, Duke allowed the Spartans to shoot 50 percent, and got whipped 33-22 on the boards. With Kaminsky’s offensive game forcing Jhalil Okafor to play away from the basket, there could be rebounding issues again, for a young team facing matchup complexities they have little experience against.
This Week at Point Blank:
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #13
(/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1107502.aspx)
Tuesday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #12
(/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1108094.aspx)