Point Blank – November 28
Coaching “The Game” vs. Coaching for the Record Book…Will there be Lightning, for the Thunder…A Marquette Post-Mortem…The Iron Bowl pace may not be what you expect…
The first Apple Cup encounter between Chris Peterson and Mike Leach adds some drama when Washington heads to Washington State on Saturday, with the establishing of bragging rights absolutely front-and-center. But as these two coaches go head-to-head for the first time, there is also a key handicapping aspect that should be looked at closely, especially in this price range. For Peterson the foundation of success has been coaching the whole game; for Leach it has been dazzling at a single part of it, hoping that it is enough to overcome seeming antipathy for much of the rest.
At Boise State, Peterson was forced to coach the entire football spectrum. His teams were never going to attract big-time talent (check the NFL Pro Bowl rosters each season for evidence of that), so there was much attention to detail (albeit a weak kicking game, on occasion). That has already been evident this season with the Huskies, who are +10 in turnover ratio, and have scored nine TDs via their defense or special teams. Meanwhile the offense has only given up one such score, and that was excusable given the desperation of the moment – a Pick Six in the final minute against Arizona State. In close games, attention to detail matters; it is often the difference between winning and losing.
Which takes us to Leach and the Cougars. There was some pre-set to this on Monday (link at the bottom of the page), noting how he often seems more concerned with the statistics piled up by the passing attack than the actual scoreboard. Let’s look at some of the key parts of the sport where they have been dismal failures this autumn –
Rushing Offense #124
Points Allowed #119
Pass Efficiency Defense #124
Turnover Margin #120
Net Punting #122
Penalty Yards #107
They still have the occasional terrific game, like being tied with Oregon in the fourth quarter and winning outright at Utah, but the Cougars have lost four of their last five outings by 17 points or more, and as noted on Monday, have not intercepted a single pass in Pac 12 play, despite being given 289 opportunities. Neither the special teams nor defense have directly generated a touchdown, while the offense and special teams have allowed eight of them.
How much does this lack of overall preparation matter in games that are competitively priced? In his last five seasons at Texas Tech, Leach was 8-15-1 ATS in games in which the line was seven points or less. In his first three campaigns with Washington State, it has been 2-6 ATS in that range. His Cougars will have more passing yards than Washington on Saturday, but the odds of them having more points on the scoreboard may be lesser than those current market projections.
Will there be Lightning, for the Thunder?
Largely lost in the fine print amidst the major sports headlines of recent days was Oklahoma City putting back-up PG Sebastian Telfair on waivers after Wednesday night’s win over Utah. It tells us something about the return of at least Russell Westbrook – it is imminent, and could happen at home vs. the Knicks tonight. It is going to create a lot of buzz in the marketplace, especially with Kevin Durant also on the way back soon. But be careful with it.
While the Thunder are capable of beating anyone with all hands on deck, at 4-12 it becomes a serious challenge to simply make the playoffs at all. Given how good the Western Conference is, with nine teams playing at a 60 percent win rate or better, it could take 50 wins to qualify for the post-season, and that means a 46-20 run from this point on. That is a difficult pace to maintain, and it may explain the timing for Westbrook’s return - in this next stretch four of five outings are against losing teams, and the fifth is vs. a New Orleans squad that a game over .500 (7-6). These are the kind of games that have to go into the Win column to get that run to the playoffs on track.
But here is what you need to follow closely. After that stretch, it will be seven of nine games against teams that currently sport winning records, leading up to the Christmas day showdown vs. the Spurs. It could well be possible that winning over the next week vs. those soft opponents could make it appear that all is well again, and that OKC is on track. Yet there could be legitimate transition issues as the stars return, and work their way back into a playing rhythm. Should they run off five straight, and get to 9-12 before the schedule picks up, they could easily be an over-rated side through that grinder. The Thunder are going to be a challenge for the marketplace, with the full-season statistics naturally offering numbers of little-to-no importance, and the savvy handicapper mayto be able to find some premium opportunities.
About Last Night…
After writing about those Marquette weaknesses yesterday, it may appear that some problems were solved when the Golden Eagles upset Georgia Tech 72-70 at Orlando. But a closer look is needed; if anything the flaws may have been even more ominous. Only eight players saw action, and seven of them combined for just 34 points. They had nearly twice as many turnovers (13) as assists (7). The interior defense gave up 53.8 percent on two-point FG attempts, and as expected got clobbered 40-25 on the boards. So how did they win? It was from that other player in the rotation - they got the best game that Matt Carlino is likely to ever play.
Carlino, a senior transfer from Brigham Young, scored 38 points, knocking down eight triples and making 14-16 free throws to keep Marquette ahead down the stretch. It was a magical night for the lefty shooter, who had only averaged 8.5 per game coming in, and naturally would not have been a big part of the Yellow Jacket defensive game plan. Now that changes, with Tom Izzo and the Michigan State defense being more than forewarned, and it could get real ugly on the boards tonight (even in losing to Duke, the Spartans grabbed 60 percent of all available caroms, 33-22).
In the Sights…
Showdown games for Nick Saban have tended to be about defense, and his ability to game plan for a particular opponent. Offense? Mostly game management for those settings, not giving anything away so that what the Alabama defense does best can hold up. But don’t be surprised if that changes in the Iron Bowl showdown with Auburn on Saturday night. This time, it may be offense first.
Part of this stems from the fact that Saban’s defenses have never been at their best against mobile QBs. There have not been many tests on that front this season, but those that they did face again brought back uninspiring results. They jumped out to a big lead against Tennessee in the first start for freshman Joshua Dobbs, but once Dobbs settled in he had that defense on its heels, leading a pair of 84-yard TD drives. And while Dak Prescott and Mississippi State were forced into three turnovers, two in the red zone, they generated 26 first downs and 428 yards. Last November Auburn’s Nick Marshall ran for 99 yards and a TD LY, at 5.8 per attempt, and also competed 11-16 passes with a pair of them going for scores, so there is no expectation for the Crimson Tide offense to be dominant.
But it could be a different matter on offense. The weapons and the balance are there, and they have played their best when going fast. That may well be the plan against a Tiger defense that has simply been dreadful in SEC play. They caught Arkansas and LSU early in the season when those two were nowhere near the level they are now (for background, you can refer to “Understanding LSU, 2014 Edition” - /pregame-forums/f/14/t/1053288.aspx). But over the last five league games they have allowed at least 31 points and 423 yards each time, showing no particular ability to defend either the run or the pass. Do not be surprised to see Alabama come out uptempo and aggressive on offense to exploit this matchup, which makes this Total low for a game that could feature a lot of explosive plays.
This week at Point Blank -
Monday: What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #13
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Tuesday: What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #12
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Wednesday: NFL Thursday: A Triptophan effect?...A Homecoming on Paradise Island…Reputation vs. Reality in Maui…
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Thursday: Wojo’s tough ride (or, “Did Buzz Williams foresee this?”)…Anchors Aweigh in Mobile…Can Air Force fly, without the “wing”…
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