309 SOUTH FLORIDA at 310 TEMPLE
Take: TEMPLE +7
South Florida has been good to me this season. I was very high on this team at end of the 2015 campaign and expected big things for the Bulls this year. They certainly haven’t disappointed with a 6-1 slate, and there was no disgrace in the one loss to Florida State.
Temple projected to decline a bit off their sensational 2015 season, and at 4-3 the Owls are indeed down a bit from last year. But Matt Rhule’s team is hanging in there and I think it’s fair to offer they’re turning out to be a decent team. Throw out that opening week disaster against Army, and they’ve really only been outplayed just one other time.
The stats on this game are interesting. There is no question USF has a big edge on offense. The Bulls are very explosive and they’re really close to being a Top 25 squad when they’ve got the football. The defense is another story, though. It’s not an awful stop unit, and teams that run the fast offense will sometimes end up with somewhat skewed defensive stats. But it’s not a great defense and I think Temple has a decent chance to do some damage tonight.
The edge I like is the Temple defense. The Owls are not a cinch to throw on, and the play in the trenches is definitely getting better. I don’t see them shutting down the prolific Bulls, but I believe they can at least contain Quinton Flowers and company to some extent.
It’s no secret that I like underdogs that have a defensive advantage. I also like what I’m seeing when breaking down the models on this game, which have South Florida winning but not by very much. I do have some concerns about the injury situation in the Owls secondary as Sean Chandler remains out and it looks like Nate Jones will also miss this game.
Ideally, I wanted a bit more than I’m getting at the current tag to make the play on Temple. But I definitely lean to the Owls this evening at the current +7, and I’ll make them today’s free play.
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