Just providing our content for those who like to read - we've got lots going on, as do most people. CBB games have been lined for Friday (and Saturday) and we gave some preliminary thoughts on a few of those the other day. We've got max-bet packages up for both Saturday and Sunday - I do know where we're going but haven't released them yet - but will in the next 24-36 hours.
Florida at South Carolina: This is the Gamecocks GOY and in Columbia. They lost playing their another big home game against LSU when the game was moved to Baton Rouge, so I'd expect a decent crowd and a good effort from them. This is also only their second game in Columbia since September 26th. Florida had their letdown last week against Vanderbilt (after the UGA game) but I don't know how they react to having clinched the SEC East. SC showed some heart coming back to score 21 third quarter points at Tennessee, and there was no reason the Vols could have been looking ahead to North Texas. I do think the Gators are over valued at this point. Let's remember they barely beat ECU, barely beat Kentucky, and should have lost to Tennessee (all at home) before they beat Ole Miss. I like the home dog here.
Georgia at Auburn: The easy way out here would be to simply fade UGA one more time, since they've given no indication that they've got anything left mentally, or offensively. The issue I have with that is that Auburns' defense just isn't very good. Only Arkansas has less sacks (in the SEC) than Auburn - and they're allowing 5.6 yards per play defensively, added to allowing opponents to convert almost HALF their third downs. That's enough for me not to take the Tigers. We've been taking teams in the NFL and CFB that essentially have talent and at this point in the season, nothing to lose - a very dangerous combination. I expect that UGA will try just about anything here. Auburn's win at A & M was easily their best win of the year, and let's not forget this is an Auburn team that almost lost at home to Jacksonville State. They do need another win (or two) for Bowl Eligibility but they'll get that against Idaho next week. If they try to simply run the ball against UGA they'll be in for another close one - but because they know that, I do like the over here.
Kentucky at Vanderbilt: A game that most won't care about unless they're coaching for their jobs, but there could be some betting value. Technically Kentucky can get to six wins since they SHOULD beat Charlotte at home next week, so they need this one or an upset at home against Louisville in the final game. Were it not for Missouri, Vanderbilts' offense would be being nationally talked about as being "really bad" - which it is. The only game they've managed more than 17 points was against Austin Peay, which makes it hard to really think about taking a team like that. Kentucky did but up 27 at Auburn and beat the Gamecocks on the road (26-22), so by default I'd have to think about the road team here. That's magnified a bit since the total opened at 36 and is now 38. I cannot imagine they think Vanderbilt will all of a sudden find an offense.
BYU at Missouri: Hard to fathom who this game means more to, and without looking my initial reaction would be to take the Tigers simply based on the "nothing to lose" theory as well as perhaps the "incident" motivation. BYU at home is an entirely different team and came close to losing at SJSU (17-16) last week, and played Wagner before their bye, so they haven't seen actual competition in some time. This is likely a game we (I) want no part of, but sitting at +5 or so it's hard not to think about Missouri here. Let's remember they were only +8 at home last week to Mississippi State (how can I forget) and have had that extra few days to prepare, playing that game on a Thursday night.
North Texas at Tennessee: There was a time not long ago I was high on the Mean Green just because of McCarney, but that time seems to have passed. I probably could be convinced to lay the 41 points here especially with a total in the low 60's. North Texas has shown some flashes of defense, holding SMU to 31 and Marshall to 30, both on the road. Howeer, giving up 66 to Portland State at home isn't something I'd want to think doesn't happen again. They do manage to put a point or two on the board, so I would consider the over in this one since the Vols defense has only really played well against Alabama. Tennessee can and should win out (assuming they can beat Missouri on the road next week) which will have them at 8-4 with a couple of tough losses - giving them momentum for next year and a decent Bowl game, in spite of all the "talk" a month ago.
Alabama at Mississippi State: Let's look at the Bulldogs first. That game at Missouri gave them extra time to prepare, and I would almost consider that game somewhat of a potential look-ahead to this one. Combine that with the fact that they got out early against the Tigers, and I think we can throw that one out and take it as a learned lesson and something that Mullen can use as a teaching tool. My concern here is the same as it was last week in that they really haven't played a solid schedule, let alone lately. They lost late at home to LSU in week two - and after what Alabama did last week we're going to have to pay an even bigger premium to bet on the Tide. Alabama knocked off the then #1 Bulldogs in Tuscaloosa last season, 25-20, in a game that Prescott threw three picks and the Bulldogs outgained Alabama by over 100 yards and had nine more first downs. With that in mind, this could be where Alabama gets thrown out of the National Championship picture, or at the very least doesn't cover. Too much revenge, perhaps.
Arkansas at LSU: A very dangerous game for the Tigers here as the Hogs are not only playing well finally, but come into a sullen Baton Rouge after LSU was dismantled in Tuscaloosa. What I don't understand is the total coming down - Arkansas has given up points to everyone - so IMO the over is now or never. The difficulty for me here is the time of this game. It's a night game, when we know the crowd is that much more "fired up, drunk, hostile" than a noon or early afternoon game. LSU had done what they needed to do until last week, but really, looking up and down their schedule, they've not had the huge marquee win. Yes, they won at Mississippi State (late and barely) but they also gave up 28 points to Florida and more than they should have to SC in that game that was moved to Baton Rouge. I know they might have taken it easy on SC, but still. LSU gave up 20+ to Syracuse AND Eastern Michigan, so I can do nothing but take the over. It'd be "cool" to take Arkansas, but I really wonder how much emotion that overtime win against Ole Miss sapped them of. There is still the matter of serious talent differential here. My heart says Arkansas, my head says this is the team LSU takes it out on - they've still only got the one loss and do have aspirations left.