D-Backs-Cubs: Tough to get in front of Arrieta - but he did throw a ton of pitches in that no-no against the Dodgers. The last time he threw that many, the next game was the ONLY game he's allowed runs in some time. Goldschmidt should be back but Aaron Hill is questionable. Ray has been better on the road - but Wrigley's dimensions may cause the same issues Chase Field does - so I can't take AZ here. Lean under - somewhat "ballpark inflated" total, perhaps.
Pirates-Cardinals: Tough to ignore the fact that even with Morton the Pirates are +130, which would preclude me from laying the price with the Cardinals. The Pirates haven't played well coming in but are very good against LHP so if McCutcheon is healthy, and they're resting Walker on Friday - perhaps the Pirates. But, if the weather and the umpire are right, over.
Giants-Rockies: San Francisco has been in semi free-fall mode while the Rockies have apparently woken up. I'm not sure Peavy is the best option to stop that - so unless the Giants rally from the early 2-0 deficit Friday AND use little pen, I'll take the Rockies, again.
Dodgers-Padres: Again, I can't take Alex Wood - simply because we've played the Padres against LHP more often than not. Ross is obviously the Padres' best option, so barring any Friday fiasco - the Padres.
Rays-Yankees: New York might have their mojo back now - putting up early runs on Odorizzi and beginning an lengthy AL East homestand where they know they can distance themselves in the Wild Card race at least. Eovaldi has been better at home, and although we do like Moore, I'm not sure with the Rays inconsistent bullpen I can take the generous price.
Tigers-Indians: You have to like Salazar and the Indians, but my how times have changed, installing them as -150 road favorites. Simon is at least capable - so we'll see what the Tigers RL is going for. I am not laying that price with the Indians, who are capable of anything - we want consistent teams that have real reasons to play if we're using real money.
Twins-Astros: This one looks easy - under. McCullers should, as a RHP, keep the Twins off the board for the most part. Santana is quite capable, as we found out last week - and the Astros haven't seen him - much. This looks like an even better F5 under bet.
White Sox-Royals: Both teams are typically at their worst against left handed pitching - so my instinct is to play the under.
Oakland-Seattle: Yes, Felix has some of hie mojo back - but on the road against a team that's seen tons of him I'd have to take the A's at that price. Neither bullpen is worth much - but both starters should last long enough to make the under a viable option.
Angels-Rangers: I thought Weaver and the Angels would open at more than -120. I guess I am stuck in July when that price clearly would have been closer to -150. At 7.5 it'd be tempting to look at the over, but instinct says let it go to 8 and take the under.
New Mexico State lost at LSU last year 63-7, but they do bring back 17 starters and with the total coming down significantly I can't make a case for Florida - they've got another cupcake next week - so they could play it one of two ways - see who they have depth-wise, or pound the sh*t out of NMSU to build confidence. The humidity will indeed bother the visitors. Probably under.
Eastern Michigan brings back very little on offense - so it's tough to make a case for them because they couldn't score last year - they bring back most of a defense that was terrible - ODU making the jump to FBS/C-USA and they've got the "public" bets, not doubt. If I had to bet this game I'd have to take the over.
I want nothing to do with Penn State/Temple. Everyone's high on Temple because they bring back everyone - but to my knowledge they've never beaten Penn State. With the total going UP and Temple not having a prolific offense, I tend to then the Lions win here - covering MIGHT be another story.
Florida Atlantic and Tulsa had their total steamed WAY up and the line now down to Tulsa -5 - just based on numbers here I think FAU might be the right side. Tulsa isn't what they were a few years ago.
You'll pay dearly to take UCLA - UVA isn't very good, but they DO have a defense that could keep them within three scores. I'll wait and see how far that line goes - at +21 I might consider UVA.
You pay dearly to take Stanford - and I learned my annual lesson about taking road favorites when I backed TCU and in fact early in the Summer, knew better. I do think NW scores - so perhaps over.
Auburn has J'ville State next week - and without Charlie Strong I can't make the case for L'ville. I'd like to, but I think Auburns' depth and speed is just going to be too much for the Cardinals. Lean over.
Texas A & M and Arizona State may not stop scoring - and inasmuch as I am not an Aggies believer this season (yet) it's tough not to take the points (+3.5) because you'd THINK it'd be more. We've made a living fading SEC teams in non conference games. We'll probably play something in that game.
A lot of people are high on the Huskers and/or down on the Cougars - and NOW they're buying the +7 or more. +8 sat there forever - so they could be just buying the number. I have to think the perhaps Nebraska does roll.
Troy really did suck last season, but I am not laying -26 again. Ever.
I can't make the case for UNLV at all - and I'm sure Northern Illinois will win by plenty - but I'm not playing a game that could have a back door open - or not, but see previous "ever".
MAC teams typically do well against power conferences in the early going - I have never been a Bob Stoops fan - give me the points - yes, I know about the talent difference.
The Vols are very much on everyone's radar - and IMO for good reason. BUT, with Oklahoma (see reason #2 for taking Akron next week - they could lay down late, plus, you're paying for the right to bet on the Vols - not yet, IMO.
UGA probably will hammer ULM - and even if ULM doesn't score, UGA is too deep and too talented not to score most of the 50. Perhaps over.
Kentucky is at South Carolina next week, a team they probably look forward to playing (they typically do well against the Gamecocks). ULL may give them fits, actually.
Everyone's high on the Hogs - and they don't think GSU can match some of their surprise games last season. I do.
Clearly everyone is on the Irish and even more so on the under. They may well be right, however. I love Strong but this could be the wrong time and the wrong place to start.
Typically FSU doesn't let up - they'd have beaten Savannah State by 100 last year if weather didn't postpone the fourth quarter, so I can't make the case for the dog here.
Of course you pay dearly for Alabama - however, Wisconsin does not suck, typically don't beat themselves - so I like the Badgers and the under here. It's another SEC team that people just want to beat and are over priced based on the talent perception difference. There IS one, don't get me wrong, but two touchdowns - I dunno about that.