10/4 04:00 PM CF (399) MICHIGAN at (400) RUTGERS
FREE PICK: (400) RUTGERS -3
On paper, Michigan is supposed to favored at Rutgers. The Wolverines have more talent at the majority of the positions and more quality death as well. But things have gone very much awry at Ann Arbor and Michigan football is currently in full train wreck mode.
It just seems to get a little worse every day for the Wolverines. Their on field performance has been awful, and as can happen when a team falls so spectacularly short of expectations, the off field stuff is now piling up as well. Head coach Brady Hoke is getting completely overwhelmed right now. Last night there was a well attended protest in front of the school president’s house which was aimed at athletic director Dave Brandon.
Perhaps getting away from campus and just focusing on a football game at Rutgers will be a temporary antidote for the Wolverines. But I wouldn’t bet on it. This is a team that is on a serious negative roll and all these distractions can hardly be construed as anything positive. I’ve seen these things galvanize a team on occasion, where they generate an “us against the world” mentality and play really well. But those are the exceptions, and definitely not the rule.
As for Rutgers, there’s plenty of excitement being generated this season. The fan base is pumped about the move to the Big 10. The Scarlet Knights let one get away in the conference home opener against Penn State. But Rutgers has rebounded with a pair of wins, and the team looks to be in very good shape for this weekend’s tilt with Michigan.
The power ratings I utilize have undergone an amazing transformation since pre-season as far as Michigan and Rutgers are concerned. Prior to the season, I had Michigan 9 points better than Rutgers on a neutral field. I now have Rutgers five points higher than Michigan, and that’s without the home field being added to the equation. Suffice to say there’s no team in the entire FBS I’ve downgraded more than the Wolverines, and I have to think that assessment is entirely justifiable at this juncture.
In other words, even though the oddsmakers have clearly made adjustments as far as Michigan goes, I don’t believe they’ve gone far enough. Rutgers -3 looks like a bargain to me, and I’ll tab the Scarlet Knights to pile on to the Michigan miseries with the win and cover on Saturday night.
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