08/29 06:00 PM (149) COLORADO STATE vs. (150) COLORADO
Friday: (149) COLORADO STATE +3
Right at the outset, I’ll say that I mostly agree with the general consensus on the state of these rivals. Colorado State is likely down some from last season, Colorado appears to be improved. But I also believe the the team supposedly going down is superior to the one that might be going up.
Colorado State has some obvious holes to fill. Most of what turned out to be a studly offensive line has moved on, and so has the amazing Kapri Bibbs, who was one remarkable college running back last season. It’s tough to envision the Rams being anything close to as prolific on offense as they were toward the end of last season. But I don’t see this team simply falling apart at the seams.
Colorado is much more experienced this season, and the Buffs are almost sure to be more competitive this time around. Mike MacIntyre did a great job taking San Jose State from a total stiff to a decent level, and I like his chances of accomplishing the same thing here. However, this is still very much a work in progress entity, and I don’t see Colorado sniffing .500 or a bowl for at least another year.
I don’t want to turn this piece into “War and Peace” so I’ll condense this to the numbers. Colorado defeated Colorado State handily to start the 2013 campaign. But by the end of the season, I had CSU double digits better than CU on my power rankings. I’ve definitely adjusted the 2014 Rams down from where they were at the conclusion of the ’13 season, while I’ve moved the Buffaloes up a couple of ticks. But I believe this line reflects too much of an adjustment. My ratings for the new season still have Colorado State between 3-4 points better than their rivals.
My pre-season rankings are going to change as actual data is compiled. So it’s conceivable that one month from now, Colorado could be the higher power ranked entry. But I’ve done well enough with opening week plays over the years to have confidence in what I’ve put together and in this case, I’ve got an opportunity to grab a FG with a team I have as a slight favorite. That makes for a playable scenario, and I’m therefore going ahead and taking the available points with Colorado State.
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FIRST TIME - That I've had two 3*s on the same day. One in college football, and the other in the bases (now +24 units on the season; winning 7 of last 9). I'm selective with 3*s, so you know how much I like these games. Join me and let's have a big Friday.