12/13 07:00 PM CBB (579) GONZAGA at (580) UCLA
This will be what amounts to the final opportunity in the regular season for Gonzaga to make a national statement. Almost all of the schools vying for a high seed come NCAA Tournament time have a chance to build their credentials with wins in major conference play. Gonzaga doesn’t have that opportunity. Their only remaining non-WCC games besides this one are with Texas Southern, Cal Poly plus a late January date with a disappointing Memphis squad.
That makes winning tonight’s game at UCLA more than just mildly desirable for Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have some okay wins under their belts to start the season, but the only real signature game was last weekend at Arizona, and Gonzaga let that one get away in overtime. A loss here and regardless of how easily the Zags dominate the WCC, their seed for the Big Dance will be negatively impacted off the non-conference results.
That translates into what could be a tough evening for UCLA. The Bruins have a wealth of impressive talent, but their inexperience has shown in their two toughest games. UCLA fell apart down the stretch against Oklahoma and they were completely blown out by North Carolina. It’s also worth noting the Bruins struggled in their two most recent wins, against an okay but not great San Diego entry and a fairly mediocre UC-Riverside squad. UCLA will also be the shorter team tonight, which is very unusual for them, and I’ll be eager to see how they handle the Gonzaga length.
Right at the present time, I believe a great argument can be made that Gonzaga is a legit Top 10 team. The Bruins could be down the road, but right now they’re nowhere near that level.
Theres’s no bargain to be had here. Everything I’ve pointed out is known to the guys who put together the numbers, and they’ve priced Gonzaga accordingly. So this would clearly not fall under the heading of a value play. But if Gonzaga is on its game tonight, UCLA will likely have to play at a significantly higher level than they’ve displayed thus far, and I’m willing to be the Bruins can’t. So even with a less than perfect betting line, the call here is on Gonzaga minus the points.
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