It might not happen today, but it’s now a virtual certainty that Jon Lester’s next start will be his first for any big league team not named the Red Sox. Lester is now the big fish on the block. That’s not to diminish fellow southpaws David Price and Cole Hamels in any way, as all these guys are top shelf pitchers. But there’s serious doubt as to whether the contending Rays will part with Price right now. As for Hamels, if the reports on the asking price from the Dodgers are accurate (Pederson, Urias and Seager), then Ruben Amaro is off his rocker. That might indicate Hamels stays put even though the Phillies are in desperate need of an overhaul.
So let’s focus on Lester and where he might land. From what I can gather there are eight teams that have a genuine interest in obtaining the star lefty. They are, in no particular order: Blue Jays, Orioles, Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins and Mariners.
I’ll look at each team and try and come up with my best guess as to the winner of the Lester sweepstakes. The Blue Jays and Orioles would only be considerations if Boston feels confident that neither of those teams would be able to sign him long term. There’s little doubt in my mind that there’s no way the Red Sox deal him within the division otherwise. I’m not seeing the Brewers as a destination, mostly because I don’t see them dealing Jimmy Nelson and I’m not sure there’s anyone else in their system the Red Sox would take as an alternative. The Marlins are supposedly interested, but I’m skeptical they’d actually make a daring trade to add salary, even short term, because they’re the Marlins. So I’ll toss these four teams out as the long shots.
The Pirates are interesting, as they have a wealth of minor league talent and can therefore afford to gamble. I’m not sure Boston would accept a player still 2-3 years away, so the Bucs might have to part with someone like Alen Hanson. I don’t think the Cardinals would give up Oscar Taveras, but they might be willing to deal someone like Stephen Piscotty, who profiles as, if not a star, a solid everyday OF. Seattle might offer Brad Miller, who in spite of losing his starting SS role, remains a good prospect, and could be packaged with another player. I would think DJ Peterson might also be the type of player the Red Sox would accept if it’s one for one.
Then there’s the Dodgers, who I feel have to at least be the favorite. They’ve got prospects and money. That means they can afford to lose a potential future star and they can also feel confident that Lester would not simply be a rental, but someone they can sign long term. The most likely minor leaguer on the move would, at least in my view, be Joc Pederson. I don’t see LA trading Julio Urias under any conditions. I also think Corey Seager is close to untouchable. Pederson is a top 20 prospect but I don’t think his ceiling is as high as either Urias or Seager. However, he’s definitely good enough to tempt the Red Sox. Moreover, if Boston thinks they can score Pederson and also have a good chance to get Lester back in free agency, this deal would be a virtual no-brainer for them.
This is all conjecture, of course. I don’t have any inside knowledge of the names that are being brought up by any of the teams. But Lester is clearly going someplace, and I can’t wait to see how this all plays out.
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