It’s time to wrap up the 2017 MLB previews with a look at this season’s NL West.
I’ll start with the expansion San Diego Padres. Okay, they’re not an expansion team. The Padres just look like one. San Diego has one star player in Wil Myers. The second best player on the team might well be Yangervis Solarte. I don’t mean this as a knock on Solarte, who’s a pretty solid guy. But if he’s your second best position player, you’re in trouble. The starting rotation is absurdly weak. Jhoulys Chacin is the probable “ace”. Making matters worse, the Friars are residents in a very good division with two likely playoff contenders and a couple of other improving teams. If San Diego finishes anywhere other than the cellar, I’ll honestly be shocked.
The other side of the spectrum is the Dodgers. This team made it to the post-season in 2016 in spite of an absolutely incredible abundance of injuries. This team is loaded. The corner outfield spots are probably the two shakiest positions, and neither of those is a horror show by any means. Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game. The rest of the rotation has some red flags due to health plus an apparent unwillingness on the part of the team to take the leash off top prospect Julio Urias. But I really can’t knock them on that move as long as the other starters are able to throw. Kenley Jansen is an elite closer, and I think Grant Dayton has the stuff to become a strong setup man. I just don’t see many weaknesses on this roster, I think Dave Roberts is going to keep improving as the manager, and the Dodgers are clear favorites to be back in the playoffs.
It’s an odd numbered year, so that’s supposed to be bad for the Giants. Just kidding, of course, and it’s a good thing because San Francisco has an excellent chance to contend for the division, or a wild card spot at worst. Like any team, the Giants have to stay healthy, but assuming that’s not an issue, there are few down position here. Left field, perhaps. The other positions seem sound to me and the Madison Bumgarner-Johnny Cueto combo at the top of the rotation is really strong. Jeff Samardzija and Matt Moore will probably remain inconsistent. But if either, especially Moore, puts it together, this could be a truly imposing rotation. The sore spot for the Giants in 2016 was the bullpen. Enter Mark Melancon, and that’s likely the end of the ninth inning problems. I still have concerns about the arms leading up to the ninth, and that might be my biggest concern on the entire team. The Giants look like a playoff team to me and I can absolutely see them winning 90 games.
There’s lots of new blood and I suspect a far more winning attitude now in place for the Diamondbacks. This team still has its flaws to be sure, most of them on the pitching staff. The Snakes are going to hit the baseball. In fact, they might be downright explosive. Paul Goldschmidt is a stud, I’m bullish on Jake Lamb really breaking out and I probably like David Peralta more than most. The key is AJ Pollock, who is injury prone, and the Diamondbacks need for that issue to go away. As for the pitching, that’s another story entirely. Don’t laugh, but I think Robbie Ray could emerge as the staff ace. For the Diamondbacks to contend, they need that to not be the case. Meaning, Zack Greinke has to get it back together. Taijuan Walker has ace stuff but he has yet to establish himself as a consistent solid starter. Maybe he does this season. You can probably say the same thing about Patrick Corbin. There are lots of ifs in this rotation. It could actually end up being really good, or not. Time will tell. I don’t know anyone who likes the Arizona bullpen, and given the way the game is played these days, that’s a problem. But the Diamondbacks are clearly improved and have a chance to flirt with .500.
There’s loads of optimism surrounding the Rockies this season. I’m not as bullish on this Colorado team. I didn’t like the Ian Desmond signing, and now Desmond is among those already hurt for the Rockies. Catcher Tom Murphy and ultra-talented OF David Dahl have missed most of spring ball and won’t be ready for the start of the season. That’s not to say this team won’t hit, as there is plenty of offense to produce plenty of runs. I am cautiously upbeat on the pitching with Jon Gray anchoring the rotation, and it looks like the Rockies could have an emerging #2 in Tyler Anderson. Tyler Chatwood has turned into a good mid-rotation option. The back of the rotation seems dicey, and Greg Holland is not a sure thing to regain his old form as the main man in the bullpen. Adam Ottavino was the closer heading into camp but he didn’t have a great March. The setup corps far more of a hope than a sure thing. There is no question that the Rockies have some legitimate stars. Nolan Arenado is is one of the best players in the game. Carlos Gonzalez is still dangerous, Charlie Blackmon has turned into a very good player, Trevor Story is a power hitting shortstop, and DJ LeMahieu is a good get to hit .300 while playing good defense. But I’m not convinced Colorado has completely turned the corner and is good enough to be a .500 team. I see them in a dogfight with the Diamondbacks for third place and the Rockies are unlikely to threaten the Dodgers or Giants for a playoff spot.