We've cashed out biggest plays the last couple of nights and have another one going tonight -- or, we've got discounted football packages or we've got the Dream Team thing. So I guess this is a Burger King thing - have it your way or go to McDonalds. Here's one we've bet tonight.
976 MIN / 975 CWSOVER 8.5 Pinnacle |
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Analysis: Here we have a similar situation to what we had with our winning Max Bet last night. We've got to offenses that can go stagnant - against pitchers that CAN be decent but the opposition knows them well. It's not Frank Viola against Lamar Hoyt. Quintana threw 117 pitches in his last outing, and unless your last name is Verlander or Kershaw, that's a lot. Quintana has been far more vulnerable on the road and has already thrown three games against the Twins this season. He's becoming more of a fly ball pitcher, and what we're looking for with a total of 8.5 is both teams getting to four, making it a winner. The Twins are "only" 12-15 against LHP's (far better than RHP) and in those games they're 16-10 to the over. In his first two starts (this season) he didn't give up much, but here comes the familiarity - in his third start (at home) he allowed four runs in seven innings. We know that Nolasco can be very good or very bad. When he's good he keeps the ball down (on the ground) and when he's bad - he certainly does suck. But, because he was SO bad his last outing, he only threw 65 pitches - but, the White Sox have simply gone off on him this season. They'll get to four as well. At home, the Twins bullpen is palatable. The Chicago pen on the road has been bad all season, and even worse this season - and Quintana hasn't finished the 7th inning but once since early June. So, I expect this will be a higher scoring game than most do at this point.
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Many have asked about this bet since the Twins traded Eduardo Nunez to the Giants. Well, yes, I am still playing it. Nunez was having a "decent" season by his standards. In fact, it's a career year for him. But, in the month of July he hit exactly one home run (of his 12 on the season) and is hitting .235 for the month. There's also a reason the Yankees traded him - first of all he's not a great defensive SS - for class A pitching prospect, Miguel Sulbaran - who still hasn't thrown a pitch for Yankees (I don't think). He had all of 11 at bats against Quintana, with four hits. They will likely move Escobar to SS, or do something with Danny Santana. They may lose a bit of speed in the leadoff position, but Santana can run - or they'll have Buxton leading off who is one of the fastest runners in MLB. In the end, a career .274 hitter with marginal power and who's made 38 errors at SS in his career (213 games STARTED) isn't going to be hard to replace. Bonus information - the last game Nunez missed was July 10th at Texas. The Twins scored 15 runs with Dozier leading off and Escobar had two hits, batting ninth, and giving AJ Griffin his worst beating of the year.