Free plays have been the ultimate yo-yo all summer, good for a few days, bad for the next few. Hopefully, a nicely priced home dog can provide some profit tonight.
PIRATES (Locke) at BREWERS (Davies)
Take: BREWERS +130
There are not a lot of spots where I want to even consider trying to buck the Bucs right now. But the one scenario that remains somewhat appealing is when Jeff Locke is the starting pitcher on the road.
To be fair, Locke has done pretty well in his last couple of away outings. But his overall data in road games is less than appealing, and that makes him a dicey road chalk pitcher even with that powerhouse supporting cast.
Zach Davies will make his debut for the Brewers tonight. Davies was a trade deadline mover, heading the Brewers way in the Gerardo Parra deal. Davies is not a great stuff prospect and I suspect he won’t be much more than a #4 starter long term. But one thing he has working in his favor is command of all his pitches and that ability to locate should serve him well as he attempts to outperform the scouting reports.
I’m a fan of giving first-time starters a roll. The opposition hasn’t seen him at all, and whole the Pirates will obviously be armed with plenty of information, seeing a guy live for the first time is a different story, and it’s often that goes the pitcher’s way.
The Brewers were dead in the water from Opening Day this year, but the team has played somewhat respectably since Craig Counsell took over as manager. Not that 48-57 is a sensational ledger, but Milwaukee has been competitive under Counsell. This looks like a winnable spot, at least from a price perspective, and I’m looking to cast my lot with the Brewers to get the upset tonight.
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