Free ones on a roll - everything on a roll, really, and a great MLB 1H barring a three week meltdown before the ASG. We figured out that doing the work in the Brewers game got us a nice 3* GOM winner last night as we were without question in the financial minority on that total.
From Tuesday through Thursday Mark has created a true All-Access Package for FOUR MONTHS that gets you through the first couple of month of football. For the amount of work we do - it's working for less than minimum wage.
956 SDP / 955 OAKOVER 6.5 Pinnacle |
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Analysis: Not hesitating here. I like San Diego MUCH better against left handed pitching - they're actually 10-3 to the over and I said before the season started they brought in help against lefties but perhaps regresses against righties - and that's been the case. Kazmir shut down Texas on one hit - but that's one game. He's been far more hittable on the road - and all six of his HR's allowed have come on the road and in only 35 innings. The Padres get their 3 runs here. Cashner has been horrid - he's given up three or more runs in four straight starts. He's given up a bomb in all four of those games. We like Oakland better against RHP's (see last night). Oakland MAY take a time through the order because they haven't seen him - but they were 8-23 with RISP last night. TWENTY THREE. You can regress, but how much? Day game so the ball travel better (usually). Tripp Gibson behind the plate - on the surface is an "under" umpire this season, but the list of parks he's umpired in and starters he's had would suggest nothing else. I'll spare you the list - and both teams should get their three runs here, making this a winner.
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The Cardinals are probably not worth -180 to many teams without Holliday and Adams, and Yadier often rests on day games following night games. What I do like about Gibson is that when he's on he's inducing ground ball outs. He did throw a ton of pitches last time out - but I could make a reasonable case for the Twin F5 or RL for the game.
Velasquez was as advertised in his first outing. It was at Chicago with a DH - but I do like Rusin - and Houston has been much, much better against right handed pitching. Total is perhaps too high because of the "Rockies" and the "stadium". Like the under there.
I like the Padres much better against LHP - but Cashner has been pretty awful lately - better at home, but still hasn't won at home, either. Not enamored with the A's pen - nor the Padres for that matter. This one would be predicated on what happens Monday night - but lean Oakland.
Lincecum can get luke-warm for a few innings but almost always seems to have that one horrid frame. Happ is just one of those that does just enough. Love the Giants pen and hate the Mariners pen. Have to go with the Giants simply because they're at home and better against LHP. But - not convinced yet.
I like the Braves a fair bit. Teheran can be very good, but it's more a fade of Miley. I do think the game stays under simply because Miey IS that good against LHH's which should neutralize Markakis/Freeman. Don't like either bullpen - so maybe F5 under.
I can't even think about betting on Williams against the Orioles. But, not laying -180 or the RL - we don't do home team RL's because you may well give up 11% of your out by not having to bat in the ninth ahead by one. We did that ONCE this season (last week) and that's exactly how it went down, a one run win.
I don't like the fact that Kyle Ryan has been - in limited samples - a flyball pitcher. I don't know what to expect from Lorenzen, so if you made me right now I'd take the Reds F5. Both bullpens cannot be trusted - period - but the Reds with a DH might make a difference.
As tough as it might be to lay -160 with Morton - I can't take the White Sox. Morton was just freak-like last week against the Brewers and just doesn't seem to give up the long ball - and as a GB pitcher gets the DP whenever people DO get on. Chicago without a DH is that much less potent - so under perhaps.
It'll be interesting to see how Phelps pitches against the Yankees. He was very good last time out - but he's the type that can implode at any given time. And you've got Eovaldi against HIS former team. Clearly there will be an angle there.
That's a bit steep for even Harvey against Toronto - he was -160 to the Giants last week and lost. That's enough right there to preclude me from taking the Mets. My problem is how many innings Copeland is good for, especially having to hit. This one may well stay under - and perhaps the Jays F5 here because Harvey might make ONE mistake.
I have learned my lesson not to fade the Rays at home - most of the time. I don't like their bullpen - but I don't like Washington's either. Maybe we can get a good total to go over because it's in an under venue.
I want nothing to do with the Indians - again.
The Rangers' bullpen had an ERA of 12.04 last week - that's enough for me not to take them for a full game for a while. Anderson hasn't given up a HR to a LHH yet (see Prince) and Chi Chi has been next to unhittable. Clear case for the Rangers F5 and the Dodgers for the game, IMO.
Let'snot forget about those years in the AL for Garza. The Royals have seen just enough of him to make me leery, and typically the Royals pen has the advantage. Young has simply been money - with a WHIP just north of 1.00 the last seven starts. Royals or nothing.
There are certainly better games than Richards -170, even to Hellickson/Arizona. If there's anything worth risking money on in that game it will come as a result of whatever happens, if anything, out of the ordinary on Monday.