Point Blank – February 19
Making the proper “Associations”…The Cardinal sins were on defense (on the court, that is)…Will tonight’s tempo give Memphis the blues…
The NBA returns tonight with a couple of showcase games, before tomorrow’s fuller board, as the oddsmakers and betting markets have to deal with a different shuffle, the All Star Break having been much longer than usual. That means a lot of work to do, even if you do not plan to take a financial stake under these circumstances – there is still that matter of how to best grade the results, to get into the rhythms as quickly as possible. Tonight brings plenty for the Eye Test.
Dallas. The Mavericks will have Rajon Rondo back, and this morning it appears that Tyson Chandler will also be a go. But how much can we expect to see from Amar’e Stoudemire, an intriguing addition to the bench cast? One of the consequences of the Rondo trade was losing the depth supplied by Brandan Wright and Jae Crowder, which Stoudemire helps to plug, and there is also the matter of needing a low-post offensive threat. That is the plus side. The negative is that a defense that has not looked playoff-worthy still isn’t, and while there have been positive spins across the Sports Mediaverse the past couple of days about Stoudemire’s increased rebound rate this season take it with a grain of salt – a significant part of that was playing for a New York team in which he rarely had to compete with his own teammates for those caroms, the Knicks rating #28 in rebound percentage. Ironically his numbers in that category may remain strong – Dallas sits at #29. (Updating: It looks like we will have to wait a while to see Stoudemire in a Maverick uniform, with an announcement this morning that he will not play either tonight, or vs. Houston tomorrow.)
Oklahoma City. Although Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant had to spend part of their All Star breaks in New York, Westbrook in particular making his presence felt, the fact that there have been a couple of days without games since then could matter in a rather unique way – think about how precious few times the two have been available together for a practice session this season. Given the team momentum before the break, that would seem to set the stage for a strong statement in the games ahead. But then came Reggie Jackson’s request to be traded, which puts Thunder management in a bind – can they get good enough value for him to make a deal before this afternoon’s deadline? If they keep him as a needed cog behind Westbrook, is there a guarantee he will commit to the team and play hard, instead of pouting? If a trade does happen you may want to look at some Westbrook props for tonight, since his could mean a high minute count, which is not awful for Scott Brooks in the long run, since OKC is off on Friday.
San Antonio. The Spurs might appear as the most settled team tonight, and one of the most settled across the league as play resumes, with only Tim Duncan in the All Star game. Given the usual February travels because of the Rodeo cycle through the years, this is a veteran cast that should handle the longer break well. But in terms of tonight, could this be an extremely sharp focus for Gregg Popovich? The Spurs have to play at Golden State on Friday, before getting Saturday and Sunday off. Might there be the thought from him of going all-out this evening, as if it were a Game #7 in a playoff series, to guarantee no worse than a split through the two-game cycle? They do not have a home game until March 4, so do not be surprised if that becomes the scenario.
Los Angeles. The Clippers managed to gut out a couple of wins in the aftermath of Blake Griffin’s injury, with DeAndre Jordan in particular coming up big, although some of those numbers did stem from not having to compete with Griffin for rebounds (connect that with what was said about Stoudemire earlier). Now there has been some practice time to re-work the rotation, but there is a chance that things could become muddled today – there are multiple reports that Jamal Crawford is being made available, with targets being Wilson Chandler or Arron Afflalo of the Nuggets, or Gerald Green from the Suns. It is not so much that those other teams are seeking Crawford, but that getting a first-round draft pick for Crawford gives the Clippers a tool to pursue one of them (and there are contenders that could use Crawford’s scoring off the bench, setting up a potential three-way scenario). The move would make long-term sense – the Clippers went into the break as the NBA’s #1 offense for the season to-date, but only #19 on the defensive end. The trading deadline is at Noon Pacific time. (Updating: Afflalo has been traded to Portland, so cross one off of the LAC shopping list.)
About Last Night…
Louisville’s 69-59 loss at Syracuse, playing without starting PG Chris Jones, requires some understanding before you file it away. A quick glance might show that freshman Quentin Snyder was OK as the replacement, with 13 points, three rebounds, and four assists without a turnover. The problem is that while he showed potential, Rick Pitino’s rotation suffered badly on defense with fewer pieces to work wit, exacerbated by Wayne Blackshear’s box score for the ages – five fouls, to disqualify in 19:00 of court time, with no points, rebounds or assists, but two turnovers.
It was that Louisville defense that came apart, unable to exert the usual pressure. The Orange managed 1.12 PPP, and had more than twice as many assists (16) as turnovers (7). And that was despite a horrific 1-10 night from Trevor Cooney on the perimeter (1-9 triples). Not having Jones, nor much of Blackshear, was obviously a factor, but there was also what seemed like an odd rotation, with Shaqquan Aaron nowhere to be found. Why not? This, from Pitino, speaks volumes – “He just doesn’t have a Louisville attitude. He’s not a Louisville man in terms of the way we practice, the way we go about it … He’s never going to step on the court (again) until he gets that attitude.”
As for any timetables for Jones returning – "We missed him a lot. But it's his selfishness that hurt the team. I'm not one that believes in game suspensions. I believe in punishment where you get up in the morning, lift weights, have curfew at night. But this was not a decision by me ... He could play the next game if he does what the assistant coaches tell him to do. If he doesn't, he sits again. And I don't care if he sits all season. I could care less. If he doesn't do the right things, he can move on and go to Belgium somewhere."
Another coach might be inclined to soften his stance, given that the Cardinals have a two-in-three Saturday/Monday cycle ahead. Not Pitino, so this bears watching closely.
Trends That Matter…
A lot of you will be looking for the keys to unlock edges when Connecticut/Memphis meet on ESPN tonight (yes, you do bet television games, and in truth there is nothing wrong with that as long as the money management is appropriate). This one provides a tempo aspect that could prove to be meaningful. For Connecticut the speeds this season have been slow and slower, and that continues to be problematic for the Tigers in the Josh Pastner era, which may be coming to a close. Pastner is now just 36-60-2 ATS in games in which neither his team nor the opposition scored more than 75 points. They do not like to grind, but are also not good enough to force this setting into a faster gear.
Pastner has had three head-to-heads vs. Kevin Ollie so far, going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS, falling a collective 36.5 points below the market projections, with the Huskies winning twice by double figures in the FedEx Forum. That shows some of the difficulties in this particular matchup, and it gets magnified if Austin Nichols, the only Memphis player averaging in double figures, and the AAC leader in blocked shots, can not go (they will test his ankle in the pre-game warmups).
Keeping your investment at the appropriate level is required because Connecticut is still a work in progress, with far too much of the offense falling on the shoulders of Ryan Boatright. In conference games he is scoring nearly twice as many points as anyone else (18.3, vs. the 9.8 from Daniel Hamilton), and when you take his free throws away, the rest of the team has laid bricks to a mind-numbing 55.1 percent in AAC play. That is correct, FTs not shot by Boatright are at 55.1.
This Week at Point Blank
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – As the weekend connects to Monday night…
Special Edition – Billy and Me, the Epilogue
Tuesday – Preparing for a Bubble-bath…A sinking ship takes on more water…The Dawgs can not possibly shoot worse this time around…
Wednesday – Free Baseball Winners!!! (and an anything but shameless plug)…Pitino, in February…Could a Hurricane get reduced to a mild breeze…