Point Blank – February 18
Free Baseball Winners!!! (and an anything but shameless plug)...Pitino, in February…Could a Hurricane get reduced to a mild breeze…
Gotcha with the opening headline today, didn’t I? Maybe you can’t be cashing MLB winners for a while yet, but you can certainly be playing at advantage right now, especially with the plethora of options that have hit the board already here in Las Vegas. Kudos to the guys at the Westagte, and the crew downtown at the Golden Nugget, for the deep menus that have been posted.
Sorting through those options has been part of the workload this week, while the NBA remains idle, and when it is time to dig deeper for the diamonds my own starting rotation begins with Eric Strasser, who brings not just a vast knowledge base of pitchers and hitters, but also the passion for the sport that maximizes that knowledge. It is not just about numbers or formulas, but also having that added feel for the games on the field, and the betting boards trying to anticipate them, that is essential to winning.
Today we can all tap in to some of that knowledge, first with a couple of ideas that you can take to the windows now, but also something that can be of value through the season. Eric has put together a book, “Betting Baseball for Profit”, that you can read either via hard copy or by digital download (not a bad idea to carry it around on your smart phone). It is an essential tool to have in your arsenal, and can be found here - https://palmtreehandicapping.com/baseball-betting-profit/. You will find the price for the book extremely reasonable, and his winners below are on the house for you, although it will cost me a lunch check…
Pittsburgh Pirates over 83.5 -110
The Pirates won 88 games last year and in my opinion should have won the division. They lost it during the first half of the season when they played very poorly, especially within the division (the Pirates were 7 – 18 against the Brewers and Reds before last year’s All-Star break). They left Gregory Polanco at AAA Indianapolis, where he had an OPS over 1.000, for financial reasons while they struggled. That shouldn’t happen in 2015, as the Pirates are now built for this division. Outside of Pittsburgh, there are only three LH starters in the NL Central - Jon Lester and Alex Wood in Chicago, and Tony Cingrani (who might not even make the rotation) in Cincinnati. That suits the Pirates just fine, as they were fifth in MLB in 2014 with a .746 OPS against RHP, while only 29th against LHP with a team OPS of .691. Polanco has worked all winter on making better contact against LHP, and they picked up Corey Hart as a platoon partner for Pedro Alvarez. Hart was miserable last year with Seattle, after missing 2013 with an injury, but if he can regain his form (.890 OPS versus LHP in 2012) the lineup is long and dangerous.
They lost a very valuable part when Russell Martin left for Toronto, but I don’t think he can repeat his offensive numbers from 2014, and Francisco Cervelli is a more than adequate replacement behind the plate. The rotation is solid, and this should be Gerrit Cole’s breakout season, after he showed all the signs in 2014. I’d like to see one more decent arm in the bullpen for Ray Searage, who is the best pitching coach in baseball. He has completely turned Francisco Liriano’s career around, and has transformed Vance Worley into a solid back of the rotation starter, while the Pirates collection of no names has been a top 10 bullpen each of the last two years.
Yes, the schedule is difficult, as the Central is clearly the best division in the National League, and the interleague games will be against the AL Central, probably the best division in baseball. The Pirates will need to play much better against the NL Central in 2015, and they know that. I expect them to win the division and clear the 83.5 with a week to go in the season.
Any pitcher over 17 losses -110
It sounds like a lot of losses for one particular pitcher. But this is my favorite prop and I bet it every season. One year it will lose, but we are on a 15 year non-losing streak with this prop. That’s right, every year since 1999 a major-league pitcher has lost at least 17 games. Bad teams that lose over 90 games are usually struck by rotation injuries, so by the end of the season anybody who is healthy gets the ball. Since they are bad teams, it leads to a lot of losses. And the teams don’t mind the losses piling up for the back of the rotation starter that’s probably not in their future plans anyway.
That’s Eric Strasser, ladies and gentleman, he’ll be here all season. And now to the Wednesday hardwoods -
Trends that matter…
Rick Pitino has earned the reputation for developing his teams over the course of a season, having them nearing their peak as tournament time approaches. As such, you can take note that over the last 10 campaigns, it has been a run of 17-2 SU and 12-7 ATS for Louisville off of a February loss, with a net of +48 ATS in the follow-up game. That is significant in that the guys setting the line are most aware of his abilities, as are the markets. Yet the category has grinded to a profit anyway. No rush tonight, unless the markets over-react to the suspension of Chris Jones, who has only shot 37.5 percent this season, with an uninspiring ratio of 1.6 assists per turnover. Freshman Quentin Snyder will make his first career start in his place, which could make a First Half Under at 60.5 or better worth a look, at what could be a slower than usual early pace (and zone defenses at a slow pace mean fewer foul shots).
In the Sights…
I believe #706 Miami could be extremely sluggish tonight. Because of a winter storm in the Northeast, the Hurricanes had their game at Boston College moved back from Sunday to Monday, and when they finally did tipoff it was a draining affair that went into double-overtime, before they escaped 89-86. BC missed shots at the end of regulation, and the first OT, that would have won it, and a depth-shy Miami team had to get some major extensions from key cogs, with Sheldon McClellan playing 48 minutes, Tonye Jekiri 47, and Davon Reed 45.
Not only does the physical fatigue come into play, with only a day off before taking on Virginia Tech tonight, but the rhythm can be thrown off as well. Nothing all that positive could be accomplished on Sunday as they hung around their hotel, and there is not much time at all to put together a game plan for the Hokies, and their zone defense. This could be extra dangerous for a team that has struggled to maintain focus, having lost three times outright when favored by -9 or more, and it has been a 1-5-1 ATS run as ACC chalk, with four of the non-covers being outright losses.
Contrast those tired legs with the freshness that Virginia Tech brings, playing for only the second time in nine days. The Hokies are not very good, but they do play hard, cashing at a 6-3 rate when taking +8 or more in ACC play, which takes Buzz Williams to 13-5 ATS as in that category in all conference games in his career (7-2 at Marquette). While the markets have penalized them for that ugly 75-54 loss at Clemson in their last outing, note that there was some basketball roulette in play – the Tigers opened 5-5 from 3-point range in bolting to a 21-4 lead, which made the rest of the afternoon a rather low intensity affair. That helps to make the VT legs even fresher tonight, in a game in which they can out-hustle the favorite, and scrap around to keep the margin in single digits.
This Week at Point Blank
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – As the weekend connects to Monday night…
Special Edition – Billy and Me, the Epilogue
Tuesday – Preparing for a Bubble-bath…A sinking ship takes on more water…The Dawgs can not possibly shoot worse this time around…