Point Blank – February 17
Preparing for a Bubble-bath…A sinking ship takes on more water…The Dawgs can not possibly shoot worse this time around…
You are going to hear and read a lot about the “Bubble” in the weeks ahead, to the point at which I will use the CAPS on the B intentionally. And while it may appear to be yet one more example of things in the Sports Mediaverse that get carried away a bit, this time there is more to it. It is in the commentary that comes from the players and coaches around this time of year that tells us that it really is a big deal to them, and as such a big deal for those of us who try to develop power ratings for teams in that position.
It really matters now because the middle of February becomes Bubble time, as teams on the edge of the NCAA Selection Committee rankings fully understand how precarious their position is. And it does not take any targeted research to find quotes about the perceptions; in the process of just doing the daily handicapping so many pop up. On Saturday I was reading previews of VCU/George Washington to see if the Colonials night be able to break through against an opponent that had been problematic for them, or whether it really was a matchup issue they could not solve, when I ran across this from GW HC Mike Lonergan –
“My thing is if we come in fifth place in our league, we still could make the NCAA tournament over the second-place team if our wins are the right wins. We’re out of the tournament today. There’s no doubt about it in my mind if it ended today. We’ve got a lot of work, but at least we’ll have the opportunities.” Yes, there was a revenge opportunity on the plate against a conference opponent, but the shadow of the Big Dance lurked.
In trying to gain some understanding of Pittsburgh’s phenomenal offensive game against North Carolina, there was the following from Cameron Wright - “It's no secret that we're a bubble team right now. We're just trying not to let this opportunity go past us. Every day we want to give it our all.” And the examples could go on and on, because appearing in the Big Dance really is that meaningful, especially given recent runs by Butler and Connecticut in the tourney that enables teams below the top shelf to have something to fantasize about. It matters to the handicapper because the Bubble is so large, making it tantamount to get a feel for just how far down the food chain the motivations exists.
So what do you do with it? Accept that just about every team that has 15 wins or more right now still believes. They can believe for two reasons – first that by getting to 20 or more wins, they are an at-large candidate, but second is that the conference tournament that looms ahead for almost all of the Division I teams keeps even flickering flames from burning out. You may want to shade them a bit because of that added energy level, although it will not necessarily be to a major advantage, since that is pretty common thinking. That shading will still help you not only in terms of making lines, but also in grading results.
Here is what is not common thinking – Bubble teams are often solid Over values when in the role of a small underdog. Because getting a Win means so much, they will be more aggressive when trailing late in a game, with more scrambling, and more fouling. A coach that might not foul down by seven with 0:30 remaining in January can change his stripes a month later. Players that might be tired have a reason to reach back for a little extra, and continue to compete. There is no exact formula to look for, but as the rest of February unfolds there should be a few that will be “In the Sights…”
About Last Night…
In yesterday’s column there was a take on Seton Hall being a “sinking Pirate ship” (link at the bottom of the page), and that was painfully evident in that 80-54 loss at Villanova, one in which the scoreboard was not even the best measurement of how they are taking on water – instead it was the frustration shown by Sterling Gibbs in that swipe at Ryan Arcidiacono that may have been the better indicator. It is simply a bad situation right now, with the almost assured suspension of Gibbs only exacerbating matters.
How best to break it down from a handicapping standpoint? Attach much more weight to the recent numbers, because they are bad enough to get near the truth. The three games since Kevin Willard inserted Isaiah Whitehead into the starting lineup ahead of Jared Sina have given indications of a fracture, and the fact that an article in Monday’s Newark Star Ledger focused on Sina’s father denying there were racial issues involved let’s you know what is likely being talked about on campus. With what will be a limited roster for at least the next game, and post-season hopes crushed, it will be difficult for Willard to salvage much.
In the Sights…
#502 Georgia is one of the dozens of teams on the Bubble, with a 16-8 record that does not carry any additional weight behind it because the SEC falls off so much after Kentucky this season. But the Bulldogs become an intriguing fit from two directions tonight, first being off of a damaging loss to Auburn that may turn out to be a good thing, in terms of a wake-up call (from HC Mark Fox – “Take nothing away from Auburn, but we got exactly what we deserved. I warned them yesterday. I warned them at shootaround. We’ve been smelling ourselves too much.”) And second is a matter of old-fashioned revenge, with the concept meaning something this time.
Revenge will not lead to wealth accumulation at the betting windows often, largely because it is not an overly effective tool to begin with, but also because it does not go unnoticed to those making the lines. But there are times when both a bitter memory, and the pendulums of basketball align, and tonight’s Georgia setting vs. South Carolina looks like one. The Bulldogs were dumped 67-50 at Columbia in their first meeting, their worst loss of the season, and what may well have been the worst shooting performance any team has had in Division I. They were a wretched 11-50 from the field, and it was genuinely a case of the entire team struggling. Part of what makes them a contender for a Dance invitation is a rare balance that has five players scoring in double figures, but none of them were even near a “C” level in the first go-round -
Player PPG FG% vs. SC
Marcus Thornton 12.6 50.0 DNP
Nemanja Djurisic 10.8 47.0 2-7
Charles Mann 11.3 40.9 3-10
Kenny Gaines 11.6 42.0 2-12
J.J. Frazier 10.3 43.1 2-6
Thornton sat out with a concussion, the others combined to go 9-35. That means a turnaround is on the mind of every player on the team (though Frazier is likely to miss tonight), and not just one or two that might have struggled in the first outing, which makes the revenge motive much more meaningful than usual.
Also clearing a path tonight is that South Carolina appears to be wearing down, a side effect of playing with the kind of intensity Frank Martin demands. In going 0-6 SU and ATS on the SEC road the Gamecocks have fallen a significant 58 points below the market expectations, and in the last three trips it has been ATS failures by 12, 11 and 15.5. At 12-12 motivation is not easy to come by, and once again freshman PG Marcus Stroman will be a missing spark, not having made the trip (from Martin - “Recently I was asked who is the closest thing you have to a leader in you locker room and I said Marcus Stroman. He is a courageous young man and he’s your cosmic point guard. Right now the only thing that matters is his health.”)
This Week at Point Blank
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – As the weekend connects to Monday night…
Special Edition – Billy and Me, the Epilogue