Yankees Have Fallen Out of The Top Tier of World Series Favorites
As the end of May approaches, the New York Yankees find themselves in the throes of redefining their trajectory for the 2023 season. By shaking up their roster now, the Yankees are unequivocally demonstrating a commitment to change, against the backdrop of falling 6.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.
The start of the season saw the Yankees ranked as the second-best World Series favorites, with +750 odds to win the 2023 World Series, according to a consensus taken by Pregame.com. The Bronx Bombers were only behind the defending champion Houston Astros in terms of teams the market saw as most likely to win it all. However, the ensuing weeks have seen a drastic drop for the Yankees who now pay as high as 15/1 odds to win it all, placing them as the 7th most favored team in the MLB. This drop in the odds for the Yankees has been mirrored in the fiercely competitive AL East, where they have slipped from their initial status as +130 favorites to now 4/1 underdogs behind the Tampa Bay Rays who are -175. These changes serve as a stark encapsulation of the team's recent struggles and the shifting dynamics that are currently at play.
The defining moment of these transformations came to light on Saturday, when the Yankees took the decisive step to designate the seasoned outfielder, Aaron Hicks, for assignment. Hicks, who had been a constant presence since 2019, saw his batting average slump to a measly .188 in the 28 games this season, marking a significant decrease from his pre-injury performance. His departure from the roster signals a clear shift in the Yankees' strategy, which is further highlighted by their latest acquisition - Greg Allen from Boston.
Hicks's designation for assignment was not without drama and sentiment. In the visiting clubhouse at the Great American Ball Park, two packed bags at the foot of Hicks' locker signaled the inevitable. With three years and nearly $30 million remaining on his contract with the Yankees, the writing had been on the wall for some time. Now, it was official. An emotional Hicks acknowledged the reality, "It is what it is. It’s part of the business side of it. Just got to move on to the next chapter."
The move was not wholly unexpected. Hicks had publicly voiced his frustrations with his role in the team dating back to the previous season when he was demoted from an everyday player to a part-time outfielder due to his dwindling productivity. As Hicks exits, the Yankees believe that Greg Allen, who has been more accustomed to coming off the bench in his career, is better suited for the part-time role.
The conversation between Hicks and the manager, Aaron Boone, was described as a "somber" one. Boone recalled, "He and I in the room with the door closed, it was eerie. That kind of deafening silence. I think it has to do with a guy that’s been here and done a lot here.” With Hicks's exit, the Yankees now have seven days to trade or place him on irrevocable outright waivers. The anticipation is that the period will end with Hicks's release rather than another team assuming his contract.
Even as the Yankees recalibrate their roster, there have been noticeable fluctuations in individual player performances. Despite the recent absence of 2022 AL MVP Aaron Judge due to a hip strain, Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rizzo, and Michael King have stood out this season, keeping the team in the competitive mix.
Severino to Return Sunday vs. the Reds
Amid this mix of hope and uncertainty, fans are eagerly awaiting Sunday's game against the Cincinnati Reds. Two-time All-Star, Luis Severino, who has been recovering from a lat strain, will be returning to the mound for the first time this season.
After straining his lat in the final week of spring training, Severino built up his pitch count across two rehab starts. Now ready for his season debut, he admits, “I feel happy to be back. Really excited. It’s going to be fun to compete with the guys again, to help my team. I think we’re playing good baseball and now the team is getting healthier.”
For now, Severino will fill the rotation spot of Domingo German, who is currently serving a 10-game suspension for a failed foreign substance check. Jhony Brito has been optioned to Triple-A to make room for Severino.
Despite Severino's comeback, the market predicts a high-scoring game with the Over/Under set at 9 runs for the early start in Cincinnati. The Yankees are -155 favorites to win the game, while the takeback on the Reds is +140.
Odds Yankees Make Playoffs
Yes -320 (~75% implied odds)
No +270
Consensus MLB World Series Odds as of 5.21.2023
Atlanta Braves +500
Los Angeles Dodgers +600
Tampa Bay Rays +650
Houston Astros +750
Toronto Blue Jays +1200
San Diego Padres +1400
New York Yankees +1500
New York Mets +1600
Minnesota Twins +2000
Milwaukee Brewers +2200
Philadelphia Phillies +2400
Seattle Mariners +2800
Texas Rangers +3000
Los Angeles Angels +3200
St. Louis Cardinals +4500
Cleveland Guardians +5000
San Francisco Giants +6000
Chicago Cubs +6600
Baltimore Orioles +7000
Boston Red Sox +7000
Arizona Diamondbacks +7500
Pittsburgh Pirates +10000
Miami Marlins +12500
Chicago White Sox +15000
Detroit Tigers +40000
Cincinnati Reds +40000
Kansas City Royals +50000
Colorado Rockies +90000
Washington Nationals +100000
Oakland Athletics +100000