Today the Wichita State Shockers will tangle with the Kansas Jayhawks at CenturyLink Center Omaha in Omaha, Nebraska in the 3rd round of the NCAA Tournament. The game has a start time of 5:15 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on CBS. Current Vegas betting odds have the Jayhawks listed as 1.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 135.
Analysis: The Wichita Shockers didn't have a good a year as last year, but it still was a very good year for them as they come in with a mark of 29-4 on the year. The Shockers began their tournament with a solid 81-76 hard fought win over the Indiana Hoosiers and have now won 19 of their last 21 games. Wichita State has gone 44-18-2 ATS in their last 64 games following a S.U. win, but just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Shockers have been a decent offensive squad this year, ranking 101st in scoring (70.1 ppg), 110th in shooting (44.5%), 110th in 3 point shooting (35.8%) and 150th in FT shooting (69.7%). The defense for this team has been very good this year, ranking 8th in points allowed (56.4 ppg), 46th in defensive FG% (39.8%) and 228th in 3 point defense (35.1%).
The Kansas Jayhawks won the Big 12, but how impressive was that as the Big 12 has been struggling in the tournament. Kansas has now gone 27-8 on the year overall, after beating New Mexico State 75-56 in the 2nd round. Kansas has gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. The Jayhawks have been a good offensive squad this year, ranking 78th in scoring (71.3 ppg), 122nd in shooting (44.2%), 38th in 3 point shooting (38.3%) and 76th in FT shooting (72.1%). The defense for this team has been decent, ranking 122nd in points allowed (64.4 ppg), 30th in defensive FG% (39.4%) and 33rd in 3 point defense (31.0%).
Pick: I will go with the Under here. I know the Over has been bet up in this one one and I'm not sure why as we have two solid defensive teams here, plus the fact that Kansas' last 5 games have averaged just 130.4 ppg, while Wichita State's last 5 have averaged just 127 ppg. Now we have a game with a total of 135? I don't think so. Wichita State is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, allowing just 56.4 ppg overall and just 60 ppg away from home. Kansas has also played good defense this year, allowing just 64.4 ppg on 39.4 % shooting, while in their 9 neutral site games they have allowed just 61.3 ppg on 38.6% shooting.Neither offense is great and both are very average shooting teams, so I see it hard for the offenses to do a lot of damage vs these very tough defensive teams. Wichita State's 6 games on neutral courts this year have averaged just 126.5 ppg, while the 9 games that Kansas has played on a neutral court this have averaged just 126.7 ppg, plus we note that the Under is 24-5 in the Jayhawk's last 29 NCAA Tournament games. This line move really makes no sense to me, especially since this will be an Instate game that both teams have been looking forward to and those games tend to breed more nerves and be a bit more conservative, especially down the stretch. I see a game in the mid to upper 120s here.
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NCAA Basketball: Who Can Win it All?
Teddy Covers and Steve Fezzik from Pregame.com discuss who they feel will win it all in the NCAA Tournament, while throwing in some teams that have a chance to make a deep run in the tournament.