We constantly hear “It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year” during the holiday season, and although getting presents and bringing in the new year is a blast, it’s chump change compared to the thrill of the NCAA tournament. Before that blessed Thursday afternoon in March, here’s what you need to know for March Madness 2023.
Location, Location, Location
The beauty of the NCAA tournament is that it’s played in a “neutral” environment. We put “neutral” in quotation marks because some teams may still benefit from homecourt advantage. For example, the first and second rounds have several locations in the backyard of some top seeds, while the Houston Cougars could benefit from the Final Four getting held at NRG Stadium.
Relax on the Upsets
The potential for major upsets gives the NCAA tournament its appeal. We’re only a year removed from the 15-seed Saint Peters Peacocks making an Elite Eight run, so many of you will try to find the next Saint Peters for your bracket pools. However, it’s important to remember that Saint Peters is the exception to the rule.
People fall in love with picking upsets so they can be that person that can say, “I had that!” when a 13-seed beat an overrated four-seed in the first round. Picking two or three major upsets is all a part of the fun, but you don’t want to leave yourself with a #12 or a #13 in the Sweet 16 in three of the four regions. Pull the reins in on the upsets and pick one or two teams you’re stubborn about rather than a bunch of underdogs.
Become a Hedgehog
If you scoff at our advice about limiting your upsets, you should consider hedging as an alternative. The smartest strategy is to bet on the underdogs and take the favorites in your bracket. In a tournament pool, every winner has the same implied odds. But you could get some iffy odds if you only picked the winner while betting. You might as well bet the eight-seed against Purdue in the second round at +350 and go with Purdue in your pool. An upset gives you the best ROI, whereas Purdue advancing helps your bracket.
Whose Line Is It Anyway?
Like any sport, always keep an eye on the current trends. No one can pinpoint why a spread randomly fluctuates, but the odds are it’s for a good reason. Anytime you look at a line and think, “this doesn’t make sense,” it means there’s something the sharps know that you don’t.
Another trap people fall into is following historical trends. Everyone—including the oddsmakers—know that 12 v. 5 is the classic upset. That knowledge will reflect in the spread and moneyline value. It can be dicey if you’re betting on every 12-seed at less than +200 odds.
The last thing you need to know for March Madness 2023 is to have fun. Don’t agonize over the lack of length of a mid-major or free-throw percentage of a top seed. Instead, enjoy the road to the Final Four and Pregame’s NCAA predictions today! We’ll do diligent research so you can confidently place your bets.