College football on Thursday night and we will see the UL Monroe Warhawks travel to Troy, Alabama to take on the Troy Trojans. The game will televised on ESPN U and has a start time of 7:30 pm (Eastern). Vegas odds have Troy listed as 3.5 point favorites, while the total sits at 58.5.
Analysis: The ULM Warhawks enter the game at 4-4 on the year and 2-1 within the Sun Belt Conference. Those two conference wins came in their last 2 games as they won at Texas State and lats week at home vs Georgia State. Last year the Warhawks were very good offensively as they put up 34 ppg and 435 ypg, but they have not been able to maintain that success this year, averaging just 358.9 ypg and 19.9 ppg on the year. A big part of the downturn is the inconsistent play of QB Kolton Browner, who has completed just 54.8% of his passes this year, for just 1191 yards, after leading the team to 291 ypg passing last year. The defense is pretty much the same as last year as they have allowed 16 ypg less (402.8) and 1.6 ppg less (27.4 ppg) than they did last year.
The Trojans come in at 5-3 overall and 3-1 inside the Sun Belt Conference. They come in on a 3 game win streak and have played very well at home this year going 3-0, while outscoring their foes by 22.4 ppg on their home field. The offense for Troy is one of the better in the nation, putting up 475.6 ypg and 34.1 ppg on the year the passing game is ranked 16th in the nation (325 ypg) and is lead by QB Corey Robinson, who has completed 70.4 % of his passes for 2195 yards, with 16 TDs and 8 INTs. As good as this offenses is, the defense is just as bad. Troy comes in allowing 472.8 ypg (110th) and 32.8 ppg (99th), while the passing defense ranks as 2nd worst in the nation, allowing 332.9 ypg. Last year the Warhawks did win in this park, but still the host has won 7 of the last 8 in the series and Troy has won 4 of the last 5 played here.
Pick: I will be going with the Over in this one. I really feel that the teams can hit 60+ points here. The Troy offense is very good this year and at home they have averaged a solid 44.7 ppg on the year, while the Warhawks have allowed 34.3 ppg on the road. Kolton Brown ing and the ULM offense has struggled this year, but he did hit 70.4% of his passes for 225 yards vs Georgia State in his last game and in this one he will be taking on the 124th ranked passing defense in the nation. I can see this offense really breaking out vs the Trojans in this one. Neither teams plays good defense, and the offenses should take advantage and put up at least 30 points each in this one. I expect a 34-31 type of game.
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