(AP Photo)

Welcome to another edition of our series, 'The Sound of the Betting Internet,' where we listen to the murmurs, whispers, and shouts echoing across the sports betting landscape. In this installment, we're employing the "OF COURSE...BUT MAYBE..." conceit to explore the underbelly of some seemingly obvious betting scenarios.

The betting sphere often seems to operate on 'obvious' assumptions, reinforced by historical stats, current form, or general consensus. Yet, the beauty and agony of sports betting lie in its unpredictability; the nagging 'BUT MAYBE' tugging at every 'OF COURSE.

Game 1: ATL Braves (Strider) -150 @ PHI Phillies (Suarez) +130

First up, we've got Redditor Mr_Robot_toe taking the +$ with Philly due to Atlanta Braves Pitcher Strider's recent performance:

Mr_Robot_toe: “Strider has been getting teed off on lately so I’m taking the +$ with Philly”

OF COURSE: Strider's recent record speaks volumes. His ERA leaped from 2.97 to 4.12 over the last two games, giving betting enthusiasts a great reason to back Philly.

BUT MAYBE: Remember, every great player has a poor run. Strider could rebound, considering his teams have never allowed 4+ runs in three consecutive starts.

Game 2: KC Royals (Lynch) +125 @ DET Tigers (Lorenzen) -145

Staying on the same reddit baseball betting thread, we have cointrader17 on Reddit reminding us that the Detroit Tigers are only four games behind in the AL Central, while the Orioles are five games back in the AL East.

Cointrader17: “Daily reminder. DETROIT TIGERS ARE 4 GAMES BACK. +5000...Orioles +1300.”

OF COURSE: Backing the underdogs, the Tigers, at +5000 to win the AL Central, could seem like a profitable gamble. Both teams have the potential to cause an upset, and their recent performances provide hope.

BUT MAYBE: Both the Tigers and the Orioles face formidable opponents. The numbers don't favor them, and their ascent to the top, although not impossible, is indeed a steep climb.

Game 3: STL Cardinals (Montgomery) -145 @ WAS Nationals (Gore) +125

Over/Under 0.5 Runs in First Inning (Under +105)

Next, we have a fascinating prediction from @gimmethedog on Twitter, suggesting that there won't be a run in the 1st inning of the upcoming Cardinals game.

GimmeTheDog, @gimmethedog: “The Cardinals and their opponents have not scored a run in the 1st inning in 10-straight games as away favorites after away win against a team they lost to the last time they met. DraftKings shows under 0.5 runs in the 1st at +105.”

OF COURSE: The Cardinals haven't had the best of seasons. With a disappointing 17-27 record as a favorite, betting on them to remain silent in the first inning seems to make sense.

BUT MAYBE: Past performance isn't a guarantee for future outcomes. Short-term stretches often don't reflect the team's overall capacity. Keep an eye on that larger body of work.

Game 4: TEX Rangers (Eovaldi) -130 @ CHI White Sox (+110)

One particularly engaging topic on our Pregame Forums, which has garnered considerable attention, is a post from AgainstTheNorm, made in late May. This thread has resonated with our community, sparking a lively discussion that has garnered over 4,000 pageviews and drawn over 50 replies in the past month.

AgainstTheNorm shared an insightful observation: “Texas has won 23 games this season as favorites…and in 21 of those they won by 2 or more runs, so you might as well bet them on the run-line. This kind of trend won't continue all season, but it is definitely worthy of keeping an eye on.”

Now, the Rangers find themselves in a similar position that our Forums had previously identified as a promising spot for them. As they prepare to take on the White Sox, they do so as the favorites, an alignment that has historically led them to success. It will be intriguing to see if this pattern holds true in the upcoming game.

OF COURSE: Since AgainstTheNorm’s post the Rangers are 11-6 SU as favorites, cashing +3.83 Units for their backers in a favorite role. Moreover, bettors that have followed AgainstTheNorm's advice to back the Rangers on the run line in these spots have profited almost twice much. No doubt, the Rangers are performing exceptionally well. As TripleOption on our Pregame Forum points out, the Rangers have the best record in their franchise history through 53 games, with a formidable manager in Bochy, and Seager's impressive 19 RBIs in 11 games since his return from the IL. Eovaldi is also pitching like a Cy Young candidate. Most of the Rangers' Run-Line wins came against struggling teams, which suggests a strong performance so far. Furthermore, as top contributor CatsAndDogs highlights, the Athletics are an unattractive bet, with a 0-20 record this season on the Moneyline as a dog of +200 or higher, and being outscored by 5.5 runs per game.

BUT MAYBE: Every winning streak eventually faces a setback. The Rangers, who have been enjoying a period of success, have had a somewhat easy schedule so far. They've squared off against the Yankees while their key player, Aaron Judge, was on the Injured List. This has led to favorable outcomes, with the Rangers holding a 3-0 record against the Yankees without Judge in the lineup this season, and a 0-1 record when they do face the reigning AL MVP. Despite being the -130 favorites against Dylan Cease and the White Sox in the upcoming match, it's important to remember that as the season progresses, they will face tougher competition. Their performance may potentially regress toward the mean. The unpredictability of baseball means that even though the Rangers are performing well, the White Sox could still mount a significant challenge and possibly cause an upset.

Game 5: BOS Red Sox (Crawford) +120 @ MIN Twins (Ober) -140

While top Pros at Pregame.com, as well as, well-established Forum users have a history of winning, we know you may attempt to scoop a free pick from other sports betting web pages. Here is one suggested free pick from Sports Betting Dime.  Let’s break it down:

Sports Betting Dime suggests, "MLB Player Prop #1: Kutter Crawford Over 4.5 Strikeouts.

“To be honest with you, this is more of a fade of the Twins than it is Crawford having electric stuff or anything like that. On the season as a whole, the Twins strike out the most in the entire MLB at 27.1%, specifically against RHP. A team strikeout rate above 25% is silly, and the Twins are all the way up over 27%... Looking at the Twins batters is truly astounding. I generally consider any player that strikes out 25% and above to be a strikeout guy, and the Twins have eight players with over 100 ABs who strike out over 25% of the time, seven of whom strike out over 30%. Obviously, we will need to wait for the lineups to be announced to see exactly how many strikeout guys will actually be in the lineup, but there isn’t any way the Twins could have fewer than five, which is the number that I like to target.” (Via SportsBettingDime.com)

OF COURSE: These statistics indicate a strong trend in favor of Kutter Crawford exceeding the 4.5 strikeouts mark. The Twins' high strikeout rate, particularly against right-hand pitchers like Crawford, along with their many high-strikeout players, all seem to suggest that Crawford could indeed surpass that threshold.

BUT MAYBE: Public bettors often gravitate towards Overs, which can sap them of any inherent value. This scenario is particularly attractive given that Crawford pitches for the Boston Red Sox, a team that usually attracts a lot of public betting action and whose players typically command a premium in the betting market. Baseball, being the unpredictable sport that it is, may throw us a curveball and the Twins may unexpectedly adapt to Crawford's pitching. Additionally, Crawford's individual performance and strikeout record might not necessarily align with the high-strikeout tendency of the Twins. Therefore, despite a seemingly obvious choice, the vagaries of the game should prompt bettors to exercise caution.

 

In conclusion, sports betting isn't a realm for the 'obvious'. It's a fast-paced, ever-evolving world that encourages us to question, scrutinize, and embrace the thrill of the "BUT MAYBE." So, as we place our bets and tune into the next game, let's remember that 'obvious' is often just the starting point of the conversation, and demonstrated on our elite Forums, deep within nuanced conversation pumps the heart of the action.

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