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Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NFL Football Betting Odds Super Bowl 49 New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks Free Pick

Tonight the Seattle Seahawks will take on the New England Patriots in super Bowl 49, which will be played at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The game has a start time of 6:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on FOX. Current Vegas betting odds have New England listed as 1 point favorites, while the total is set at 47.5.  

Analysis:  The New England Patriots gained the top seed in the playoffs on the AFC side. For the year they have gone 14-4 overall, and got to this game by beating the Ravens 33-31 in the divisional round and then two weeks ago the crushed the Colts 45-7 in what is now being called Deflategate. I won't go into that cause I am tire of writing about it. New England has gone 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. The Over is 35-16 in Patriots last 51 games following a ATS win, but the Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 Superbowl games. The Patriots have been a very solid offensive team this year, ranking 11th in total yards, 9th in passing, 17th in rushing and 4th in scoring (29.2 ppg). The defense for the Patriots has been solid as well, ranking 13th in yards allowed, 17th vs the pass, 9th vs the run and 8th in points allowed (19.6 ppg).

The Seattle Seahawks look to defend their Super Bowl title and they have been he hottest team in the league down the stretch, winning their last 8 come games, outscoring their foes by 14.8 ppg over that stretch. The Seahawks were the number one seed in the NFC and got to this game by beating Carolina 31-17 in the Divisional Round and then they beat Green Bay 28-22 in OT in the NFC Title game. The Seahwaks have gone 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on grass and 19-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, while the Over is 9-3 in their last 12 playoff games, but the Under is 4-1 in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Seattle has been a solid offensive team this year, ranking 9th in total yards, 28th in passing, 1st in rushing and 10th in scoring (24.6 ppg). The defense for the Seahawks has been the best in the league, ranking 1st in yards allowed, 1st vs the pass, 3rd vs the run and 1st in points allowed (15.9 ppg).

Pick: I like the under in this game. Super Bowls usually start out slow and this one should be no different, but I expect it to stay slow for the whole game. The Seahawks will look to run the ball allot, especially in the 1st half. In the NFC Title game Russell Wilson had a bad showing and that should lead the Seahawks to a more conservative gameplan here. They can do that knowing they have the best defense in the league backing them up.  The Patriots offense looks unstoppable at time, but they also looked that way in their other superbowl, but still have failed to deliver big points in them. Patriot Super Bowls have gone 5-0 to the Under and this one should follow suit. I would not be surprised to see a 20-17 type final here. 



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MovieSuper Bowl Side & Total Update
Steve Fezzik from Pregame.com gives a line analysis on both the side and total of the game between Seattle and New England in Super Bowl 49.