The 2nd round of the Big East Tournament takes place tonight and we will see the Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Vanderbilt Commodores. The game is scheduled for a 7:30 pm (Eastern) start time and will be televised on the SEC Network. Currently the Odds for the game have Arkansas favored by 3 points while the total sits at 125.
Analysis: Despite Vanderbilt's less-than-stellar record (14-16, 10-8 SEC), it comes into this tournament as one of the conference's hottest teams, winning four of its last five games, including a 74-64 decision at home over South Carolina last Saturday. The Commodores came out as tournament champions in 2012, although they have almost a completely new roster this season. anderbilt was up by 11 points at the half against South Carolina its last time out and never trailed from that point on. It was a great offensive effort by its standards, as the team shot nearly 46 percent from the field and 23- of-28 from the foul line. Rod Odom tallied 18 points and eight rebounds, Dai- John Parker also put up 18 points, and Kedren Johnson struggled from the floor (1-of-8), but drilled 10-of-12 at the free-throw line for 12 points. The Commodores usually have difficulty putting points on the board, scoring a league-low 60.0 ppg, but luckily they are able to remain competitive in most contests thanks to their outstanding defense (60.0 ppg). Johnson pours in 13.6 ppg to lead the way, while Odom adds 10.2 ppg to the mix.
The majority of Arkansas' success this season has come thanks to one of the nation's best home court advantages (18-1), which included a 73-62 over Texas A&M to close out the regular season. Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, they have not been the same team away from Fayetteville, going a combined 1-11 in road and neutral-site affairs. Arkansas was actually outshot from the field by Texas A&M in its latest game, 51.2 percent to 38 percent, but it was still able to cruise to the double- digit victory by putting forth a strong 28-of-36 showing from the foul line, and by forcing 23 turnovers. Pacing five teammates in double figures was Mardracus Wade, who had 14 points on 3-of-5 from beyond the arc. Michael Qualls netted 13 points, Rashad Madden had 11, and Anthlon Bell and Marshawn Powell scored 10 points apiece in the winning effort. On the season, the Razorbacks are one of the top scoring teams in the SEC with 73.7 ppg, although they have scored less than that average in seven straight games. BJ Young puts up 15.1 ppg on nearly 45 percent field goal shooting in the backcourt, while Powell tallies 14.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg and more than a block and a steal per contest. The balanced team also has nine others averaging between 3.4 and 7.6 ppg.
Pick: These teams played twice this year and just 116 and 89 points were scored in the two games, yet the OU line for this one is at 125, so I would say their is some Value (God I hate using that word) on the under here. Arkansas hasn't been held in check by many teams on the home floor, but Vanderbilt did hold them to 56 points in a meeting their earlier in the year. Now Arkansas scores 80+at home so that was an impressive defensive performance. Now the Hogs really struggle to score away from their home court, averaging just 60.1 ppg on the road and hey were able to muster just 49 points when they faced Vandy on the road. Vanderbilt is a solid defensive squad overall as they have allowed just 60 ppg overall and 60.6 ppg on the road, while also checking in at 58th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Its no wonder this team has been able to shut down Arkansas. The Hogs don't really play a whole lot of defense, but they are still 66th in the nation in defensive efficiency and will be taking on a weak Vanderbilt offense. The Commodores play a slow tempo offense (325th in pace) and they average just 60 ppg on the year overall, including just 56.5 ppg on the road. Let's also note that Vandy is 323rd in FT% (63.2%) and they hit just 31% from long range on the road, plus in 2 games vs the Hogs they were able to score just 50 ppg vs them. I just don't see how this game hits 120 points, especially since I expect Vandy to slow the pace like the first 2 meetings.
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