The NBA Playoffs continue on Saturday night and I will have a free pick in Game 3 between the Golden State Warriors and the Memphis Grizzlies which will take place at the FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tennessee. The game has a start time of 8:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ABC. Current Vegas betting odds have Golden State listed as 4 point favorites, while the total is set at 196.5.
Analysis: The Golden State Warriors have been the best team in the NBA this year and they really showed it in game 1 of this series with a nice 15 point win, but Tuesday night they faced a healthier Memphis squad and suffered just their 3rd home loss all year and their first home loss vs a Western Conference foe since back in November. On the road this year the Warriors have gone 30-13. Golden State has gone 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. loss, but just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Western Conference. The Warriors have scored 107.0 ppg on 45.9% shooting overall and 38.3% from long range on the road this year. Defensively they have struggled away from home as they have allowed 10130 ppg on 43.2% shooting overall and 33.1% shooting from long range.
The Memphis Grizzlies looked like a much different team on Tuesday night with Mike Conley back in the lineup, as they pulled a huge 97-90 upset over Golden State on the road. With Conley in the lineup the Grizzlies do have a good shot at taking the Warriors to the distance in this series. Memphis has gone 34-10 at home this year. Memphis has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games, but just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Grizzlies have scored 99.4 ppg on 45.5% shooting overall and 34.3% from long range at home this year. Defensively they have been very good at home, allowing just 92.8 ppg on 45.8% shooting overall and 33.6% shooting from long range.
Pick: I like the Under in this game. The Grizzlies were able to slow the game down in game 2 thanks to Conley being back on the floor and I really look for them to do the same in this game as well. They do not want to get into a running game with the Warriors as that will spell certain doom for them. The Warriors come in allowing just 95.3 ppg in their last 6 games ( Regulation Only), while the Grizzlies have allowed just 92.8 ppg in their last 8 games and just 92.8 ppg at home for the year. The Under is 6-1 in the Warriors last 7 Conference Semifinal games, while the Under is 24-4 in the Grizzlies' last 28 home game and 24-6-1 in their last 31 games following a SU win, plus 13-3-1 in their last 17 games vs the Pacific Division. Playoff ball breeds more defense and I clearly see that in this game.
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