Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs continue on Saturday night and we will see the San Antonio Spurs travel to the Staples Center to take on the Los Angeles Clippers, in game 7 of their best-of-seven series. The game has a start time of 10:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on TNT. Current Vegas betting odds have the Clippers listed as 2 point favorites, while the total is set at 204.
Analysis: The Spurs had grabbed homecourt advantage for the second time when they won game 5 in LA, but then in game 6 they just couldn't keep up the momentum and the Clippers won 102-96. The road team has now taken the last 3 in this series. San Antonio has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss, but 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Spurs have scored just 99.3 ppg on 44.6% shooting overall and 34.1% from long range on the road this year. Defensively they have been solid away from home, allowing 96.9 ppg on 44.5% shooting overall and 35.8% shooting from long range.
The Los Angeles Clippers gained just a split in their first two home games of the series and then they split their 2 home games before losing at home and then winning on the road at San Antonio to tie the series at 3 games apiece. Now they are back in LA where they have gone 31-13 on the year. LA has gone 5-13 ATS in their last 18 Conference Quarterfinals games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Clippers have scored 106.1 ppg on 46.9% shooting overall and 37.0% from long range at home this year. Defensively they have been solid at home as they have allowed just 98.5 ppg on 45.2% shooting overall and 33.2% shooting from long range.
Pick: Going with the Under in this game. Game 7 should bring incredible defensive intensity from both team, which will keep the scoring down. The Clippers have allowed just 98.5 ppg at home, while the Spurs have allowed just 96.9 ppg on the road, so both teams already have played defense well in those situations. The Hack-a-Jordan is a factor, but im not so sure in this game. The Spurs keep winning when they go to that, so I expect Rivers to take Jordan off the court at times when that starts. I look for this one in the mid-190s.
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